Transcript StAndrews1 - Iowa State University

Climate Change:
A Context for Reflection on the
Responsibilities of the Faith Community
Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
[email protected]
St Andrews Lutheran Church, 12 November 2006
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Outline
Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide
 Radiative forcing
 Simulations of global climate and future
climate change
 “Dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”?
 “Climate surprises”
 Implications for the Faith Community
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CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere
temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary
Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
Natural cycles
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere
temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary
Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
Pattern
repeats about
every 100,000
years
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere
temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary
Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2006
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2040
2006
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
“Business as Usual”
(fossil intensive)
2100
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
“Business as Usual”
(fossil intensive)
2100
?
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Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions with division into portions that remain airborne
or are soaked up by the ocean and land.
Source: Hansen and Sato, PNAS, 101, 16109, 2004.
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Climate forcing agents in the industrial era. “Effective” forcing accounts for
“efficacy” of the forcing mechanism
Source: Hansen et al., JGR, 110, D18104, 2005.
Agung, 1963
El Chichon (1982)
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Global mean surface temperature change based on surface air
measurements over land and SSTs over ocean
Source: Update of Hansen et al., JGR, 106, 23947, 2001; Reynolds and Smith, J. Climate, 7, 1994;
Rayner et al., JGR, 108, 2003.
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
The planet is committed to
a warming over the next
50 years regardless of
political decisions
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
The planet is committed to
a warming over the next
50 years regardless of
political decisions
Mitigation
Possible
Adaptation
Necessary
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
Climate Change
Projected for 2100
Rapid Economic
Growth
Slower Economic
Growth
(A) Net Radiation at
top of atmosphere in
climate simulations.
(B) Ocean heat gain
in the top 750 m
of world ocean.
Source: Hansen et al.,
Science, 308, 1431, 2005.
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Tropical Weather
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Weather Underground: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Katrina_vs_sea_surface_height.JPG
Tropical Atlantic Ocean
Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
Sea-surface temperature
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Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over
the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.
Tropical Atlantic Ocean
Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
Sea-surface temperature
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Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over
the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA)
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140-page synthesis report released in
November 2004.
Main science report imminent (chapters
available electronically at www.acia.uaf.edu).
Concerns over wide-ranging changes in the
Arctic.
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Rising temperatures
Rising river flows
Declining snow cover
Increasing precipitation
Thawing permafrost
Diminishing late and river ice
Melting glaciers
Melting Greenland Ice Sheet
Retreating summer sea ice
Rising sea level
Ocean salinity changes
Species at risk include polar bears, seals, walruses,
Arctic fox, snowy owl, and many species of
mosses and lichens
Sources: Claire Parkinson and Robert Taylor
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NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice
concentration in 1979 at left and in 2003.Satellite passive
microwave data since 1970s indicate a 3% decrease per
decade in arctic sea ice extent.
Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent.
(Illustration from NASA) (http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate
Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
Associated Climate Changes
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Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr
Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N.
Hemisphere
Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15%
Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions
Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere
Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents
Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges
Snow cover decreased by 10%
Earlier flowering dates
Coral reef bleaching
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
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For the Midwest
Warming will be greater for winter than summer
 Warming will be greater at night than during the
day
 A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples
the probability of a heat wave
 Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer
now than in 1950)
 More precipitation
 Likely more soil moisture in summer
 More rain will come in intense rainfall events
 Higher stream flow, more flooding
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Climate Surprises
 Breakdown
of the ocean thermohaline
circulation (Greenland melt water)
 Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
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Kennedy Space
Center
Areas subjected to
Inundation with a 1 m
(~3 ft) rise in sea
level
Miami
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What Constitutes “Dangerous
Anthropogenic Interference with
the Climate System”?
James Hansen, Director of the NASA Goddard
Institute for Space Studies:
* Radiative forcing limit: 1 Watt/ m2
* 1 oC additional rise in global mean
temperature
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Agung, 1963
El Chichon (1982)
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Agung, 1963
El Chichon (1982)
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
Imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Increasing Melt Area on Greenland
• 2002
all-time record melt area
• Melting up to elevation of 2000 m
• 16% increase from 1979 to 2002
70 meters thinning in 5 years
Satellite-era record melt of 2002 was exceeded in 2005.
Source: Waleed Abdalati, Goddard Space Flight Center
Hansen,
Scientific American, March 2004
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SIMULATIONS
Kennedy Space
Center
Impact of a 1-m
rise in sea level
on low-lying areas
Projected sea-level rise
In 21st century:
0.5 to 1.0 m
Areas subjected to
Inundation with a 1 m
(~3 ft) rise in sea
level
Miami
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of
a warming Arctic. Arctic
Climate Impact Assessment
(www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge
University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/37.htm
Rawls and Brundtland:
Brundtland Report Concept of Sustainability:
“Institutions are sustainable when they
effectively meet the needs of present
generations without compromising
the ability of future generations
to meet their needs.”
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Ten Things You can do to Slow Global
Warming*
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Change a light
Drive less
Recycle more
Check your tires
Use less hot water
Avoid products with a lot of packaging
Adjust your thermostat
Plant a tree
Turn off electrical and electronic devices
* From “An Inconvenient Truth (www.climatecrisis.net)
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What Does this Imply for the
Faith Community?

Care for creation - what does this mean in a
global context?
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What Does this Imply for the
Faith Community?
Care for creation - what does this mean in a
global context?
 Faith community is joined across space and
time
– We have a legacy passed down for the last
two centuries
– What legacy do we leave?
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What Does this Imply for the
Faith Community?
Care for creation - what does this mean in a
global context?
 Faith community is joined across space and
time
– We have a legacy passed down for the last
two centuries
– What legacy do we leave?
 How will future generations
(those whose futures we are
now constraining) view us and
our stewardship of the planet?
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What Does this Imply for the
Faith Community?
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Responsibility to the natural world
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What Does this Imply for the
Faith Community?
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Responsibility to the natural world
Responsibility to other human beings
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What Does this Imply for the
Faith Community?
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Responsibility to the natural world
Responsibility to other human beings
– International justice
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What Does this Imply for the
Faith Community?
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Responsibility to the natural world
Responsibility to other human beings
– International justice
– Inter-generational equity
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What Does this Imply for the
Faith Community?
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Responsibility to the natural world
Responsibility to other human beings
– International justice
– Inter-generational equity
From those to whom much has been
given will much be expected
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What Does this Imply for the
Faith Community?

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Responsibility to the natural world
Responsibility to other human beings
– International justice
– Inter-generational equity
From those to whom much has been
given will much be expected
– Resources
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
What Does this Imply for the
Faith Community?
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Responsibility to the natural world
Responsibility to other human beings
– International justice
– Inter-generational equity
From those to whom much has been
given will much be expected
– Resources
– Knowledge
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For More Information

For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have
seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse

Contact me directly:
[email protected]
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