Transcript Sin título de diapositiva - Central European Countries Travel

Global Tourism Trends
and
Prospects for 2002
Presentation by
Andrei Chlevkov,
Assistant to WTO Regional Representative
for Europe
Prague, Czech Republic, 6th February 2002
MICE Benefits and Costs
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High level of spending by delegates
Increased employment
Tax revenues
Redevelopment of depressed areas
Improving the image
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High development and operating costs
Infrastructure cost
Investment alternatives
Possible local price increases
Worldwide Export Earnings, 1999
Tourism
Automotive products
Chemicals
Food
Fuels
Computer and office equipment
Textiles and clothing
Telecommunications equipment
Mining products other than fuels
Iron and steel
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
US$ billion
400
450
500
550
600
World results, 2001
International Tourist Arrivals
(millions)
Growth
rate
00/99:
7%
Growth
rate
01/00:
650,2
697
689
- 1.3 %
1999
2000
2001
International Tourist Receipts
(USD billions)
Growth
rate
00/99:
4.9%
455,1
477,3
1999
2000
Purpose of visit
International tourist arrivals
100
80
%
60
40
20
0
World
Africa
Leisure, Recreation, Holidays
Americas
EAP
Europe
VFR, Health, Religion, Other
Middle
East
South
Asia
Business, Professional
Year 2001 was affected by:
- foot and mouth disease
- economic slow-down
- stocks sliding
- decrease in consumer confidence
- slight increase in unemployment
-pro- and anti- globalization movements
- the antrax scare
11th SEPTEMBER TERRORIST ATTACKS
The 11th September Impact
on Global Tourism:
Worst Hit Segments:
• Long-haul tourism
• Air carriers
• Hotels
• Business Travel
• Destinations heavily dependent on US traffic
Effects on Global Tourism,
triggered by 11th September
Airlines:
• Massive cancellations
• Global losses for the year 2001: USD10-12 billion (IATA)
• Bankruptcies
• Reduction of capacity and staff
• Curtailment of routes
• Profit warnings and a slump in share prices
• Accelerated retirement or sale of aircraft and cancellation or delay
of aircraft orders
• Major insurance problems
Accommodation:
• Massive cancellations and job losses
• Worst hit: up-market hotels, particularly, hotels catering for
individual businessmen, conventions and incentives and which
have a high proportion of North American clients
• Income per room dropped 19.4 per cent in the US and 8.2 per cent
elsewhere in the world
• At the end of 2001 occupancy rates were still 13 per cent down
on 2000
Sectors and Segments Least
Affected by the Crisis
•Redistribution of tourist flows in favour of:
- destinations perceived as safe
- domestic tourism
- destinations reached by alternative transport (car)
• Special interest tourism (sports, culture, ecotourism)
Remedial Actions
proposed by
the WTO Tourism Recovery Committee
• Preserve the industry’s operational capacity
• Institutional measures: government coordination
• Rebuild consumer confidence
• Enhance safety and security
• Improve communication
• Better targeted products
• Vigorous marketing (including cooperative action)
• Public-private partnerships
• Understanding the economic impact of tourism
(by markets, segments, sectors, etc.)
The Crisis as a Catalyst:
• Encouraging the development of new products
• Targeting new market segments
• Improving product quality and competitiveness
• Eliminating rigidities and inefficiencies
• Speeding up changes (direct bookings, Internet,
closure of travel agencies, consolidation in
the air transport sector)
• Underlining the role of tourism as a wealth generator,
job creator and promoter of peace and understanding
International Tourism Key Words

Growth

Globalization

Vulnerability

Resilience
 Growth / Performance
Growth of World Real GDP & International Tourist Arrivals
Real GDP
Average 1975-2000
% change over previous year
10,0
Tourist Arrivals
Average 1975-2000
8,0
6,0
4,0
2,0
0,0
-2,0
1975
Second oil crisis /
crisis (Afghanistan,
Poland,...)
1980
1985
Gulf War /
Yugoslavia
1990
1995
Asian crisis /
Problems in the Eastern
Mediterranean
2000
 Vulnerability / resilience
Egypt: Luxor terrorist attacks (November 1997)
Asia: financial crisis (1997-1998)
120
International Tourist Arrivals (millions)
International Tourist Arrivals (millions)
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
100
80
60
40
20
0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
 Growth
Tourist arrivals by receiving regions, 1950-2020
1 800
Actual
Forecasts
1 600
1.561 mn
1 400
millions
1 200
1 000
800
South Asia
Middle East
Africa
East Asia/Pacific
Americas
Europe
1.006 mn
699 mn
600
400
200
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Internet Use for MICE Organizers
Features of a MICE site:
• General editorial material to help raise awareness
of the destination
• Detailed practical information
• Information about travel options
• Details of the services provided
• Full details of MICE products
• Access to the full leisure product database
• Online reservations
• Special promotions for MICE organizers
to offer their clients
• Details of DMO personnel
• Optional registration to receive future information
and offers
Prospects for Central European Destinations
(1)
Joining the European Union
Huge benefits:
- joining most economically and socially developed nations
- free movement of capitals, goods, services and people
- joining the euro zone
Factors to take into account:
- increased competition
- the need to harmonize legal frameworks in tourism (The EU
package tour directive, the Bill of air passenger rights, etc.)
Prospects for Central European Destinations
(2)
• Rich and varied heritage (natural and man-made
tourism resources)
• Living folk traditions and hospitality
• Relatively developed tourism infrastructure
• Potential for varied and high quality tourism offer
• Proximity to major European markets
• Positive image
• Institutional support and public awareness
www.world-tourism.org
[email protected]