Transcript TRC - International Forum of Travel and Tourism Advocates

INTERNATIONAL FORUM OF TRAVEL AND TOURISM ADVOCATES
EUROPEAN SECTION
SECOND IFTTA EUROPE WORKSHOP
UNIVERSITY OF BALEARIC ISLANDS
Palma de Mallorca, Spain, 1-3 April 2009
THE WORLD TOURISM ORGANIZATION: RESPONDING TO THE
NEW CHALLENGES IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
Patrice Tedjini, Chief, UNWTO Documentation Resources and Archives
INTERNATIONAL TOURISM IN
2008
2008: turbulence and change of trend
International Tourist Arrivals, 1995-2008*
1000
908
850
900
763
million
800
682 682
700
600
924 mn
536
570
593 610
805
702 692
633
500
400
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*
Significant slowdown
International Tourist Arrivals
18
2007
2008
variation over previous year (%)
16
15.3
14
12
11.3
10.5
10
8
8.5
6.9
5.2
6
4.9
3.6
4
2
4.6
1.8
1.6
0.1
0
World
Europe
Asia and the
Pacific
Americas
Africa
Middle East
Second half on the negative
Monthly evolution of worldwide international tourist arrivals
% change over same month previous year
12
9.5
10
9.4
8.1
8
5.9
6
4
1.8
2
0.6
0
-2
-0.4
Easter
effect
-4
Jan
Feb
-0.7
-0.8
-2.8
March
Source: World Tourism Organization
April
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
-3.0
Oct.
Nov .
-2.3
Dec.
Europe’s Performance 2008
Monthly evolution of international tourist arrivals
20
% change over same month previous year
15
10
5
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008*
-5
0%
-10
-15
Source: World Tourism Organization
Jan-June +3%
July-Dec -3%
Sharp reversal of trend
International Tourist Arrivals
variation over previous year (%)
20
17.8
Jan-June
July-Dec.
15
10
5.4
6.8
6.3
3.4
5.4
5.2
4.0
5
1.1
0
-1.3
-2.5
-5
World
Europe
-2.8
Asia and the
Pacific
Americas
Africa
Middle East
Varied subregional picture
International Tourist Arrivals
-4
Northern Europe
Western Europe
Central & Eastern Europe
Souther/Med Europe
North-East Asia
South-East Asia
Oceania
South Asia
North Am.
Caribbean
Central Am.
South Am.
North Africa
Sub-saharan Afr.
Middle East
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2.7
-2.1
2007
2008
3.5
-1.2
6.2
2.6
7.0
0.6
10.6
0.4
12.3
3.6
1.7
-1.5
9.8
4.3
0.1
5.2
3.2
1.2
6.4
5.9
5.3
4.1
10.5
7.9
7.9
8.8
11.3
15.3
18
International tourism volume and receipts:
in normal times growth in receipts close to growth in arrivals
11
10
international tourist arrivals
international tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices)
9
Asian financial
and economic
crisis:
expenditure
grew slower
% change over previous year
8
7
6
11S, SARS, economic
downturn: receipts
more affected
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
INTERNATIONAL TOURISM PROSPECTS
FOR 2009
Concerns changed…
1st half 2008
• high commodity prices
• historic high oil prices
• rising inflation
• high interest rates
• record high euro
now
• financial crisis
• credit squeeze
• lack of confidence
• global recession
• unemployment
International Tourist Arrivals, World
12
Forecast 2009:
between -2% and 0%
10.3
10
7.8
8
6.9
5.5
Change (%)
6
4
5.6
3.8
2.9
1.8
2
0.0
0
-2
1999
*Preliminary results
2000
2001
2002
-1.4
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008*
2009
International Tourism
2008
Forecast 2009
World
2%
-2% to 0%
Europe
0%
-3% to 0%
Asia and the Pacific
2%
0% to 3%
Americas
4%
-1% to 2%
Africa
5%
1% to 4%
Middle East
11%
2% to 6%
When and how will recovery come…
Monthly evolution of worldwide international tourist arrivals
20
% change over same month previous year
15
10
5
0
2005
2006
-5
2007
2008*
2009
length?
depth?
-10
-15
Source: World Tourism Organization
In perspective…
Tourism, economy and external shocks
World, Growth of Real GDP & International Tourist Arrivals
7% a year between 2004 and 2007
12
Real GDP
Tourist Arrivals
% change over previous year
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
1975
Echo of second oil crisis /
Falkland Islands (Malvinas)
and Israel-Lebanon conflicts
1980
1985
Gulf War /
disintegration of
Yugoslavia
1990
1995
Asian Financial
Crisis
2000
2005
11S
Iraq,
SARS
As in previous crises…
+ Travel closer to home, including domestic travel;
+ Visiting friends and relatives (VFR), repeat visitors,
special interest and independent travellers
- Length of stay and expenditure
+ Value for money destinations (exchange rates)
+ Late booking
+ Capacity cuts
+ Public and private sectors cooperation
UNWTO RESPONSE
TO THE CRISIS
A ROADMAP FOR RECOVERY
UNWTO TOURISM RESILIENCE
COMMITTEE (TRC)
 Created by the 84th session of the UNWTO Executive Council October 2008
 Open to all UNWTO Full and Affiliate Members and invited key
players in the
tourism sector
UNWTO TOURISM RESILIENCE
COMMITTEE (TRC)
OBJECTIVES
 Main objective
To create a platform for Members to receive and share
downturn and its impact on the tourism sector
information on the current economic
 Specific objectives
Collect and analyze economic and industry data to promote real time market monitoring
Encourage the exchange of information, experience,
response measures
cooperation and good practice regarding
UNWTO TOURISM RESILIENCE
COMMITTEE (TRC)
FUNCTIONING

TRC meets in its full constituency

TRC has a core working group composed of
- ten UNWTO Full Members
- six UNWTO Affiliate Members
- twelve invited stakeholders (of which some are UNWTO
Affiliate Members)

The Working Group aims at
. Giving guidance to the work of the TRC
. Contributing to the documents/reports to prepare for the
full meetings of the TRC
UNWTO TOURISM RESILIENCE
COMMITTEE (TRC)
MARKET MONITORING
 Online market information system exclusive for Members




Latest tourism results – UNWTO World Tourism Barometer Updates
Source markets performance and outlook (UNWTO/ VISA /AMADEUS)
Air Transport performance (Associates/BOOZ)
Economic indicators for major source market
UNWTO TOURISM RESILIENCE
COMMITTEE (TRC)
RESPONSE INFORMATION SHARING
 Sharing experiences on response measures and tools




The TRC meetings
Online information system
Focal points Network
Share results of related national and regional events
UNWTO TOURISM RESILIENCE
COMMITTEE (TRC)
MEETINGS
 1st Meeting – FITUR – Madrid, January 2009
 2nd Meeting – ITB- Berlin, March 2009
 3rd Meeting – 18th Session UNWTO General Assembly, Astana, Kazakhstan,
October 2009
Thank you very much
for your attention