Transcript International Tourist Arrivals

"Forces of change in world tourism. The
role of governments, enterprises and the
need for p-p partnerships"
Carlos Vogeler
Chairman Affiliate Members UNWTO
The importance of Travel & Tourism
• 12% of international consumer spending
• 10.3 % of world gross domestic product (GDP)
• 234 million jobs (1 in 12 jobs, 8.2 % of total world employment)
• The economic significance and potential of Travel & Tourism is
particularly prominent in the developing world
• Most new jobs in developing economies are created in tourism
industries
• Diversifies economic activity and enables the creation of wealth
and jobs in rural areas
• Positive effects in the balance of payments for inbound countries
• Multiplier effect in the economy impacting other sectors
World Tourism in 2006
842 Million
International
Tourist Arrivals
US $ 735 billion
International Tourism
Receipts
+ 4.9% over 2005
International transportation)
Average receipts per arrival:
US$ 870
+ 4.5% over 2005
(US$ 883 billion,including
Domestic Tourism:
Estimated 5 times more than international
(no reliable data available)
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Sustainable growth
Evolution of International Tourism arrivals and receipts (1995 – 2006)
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1995
2000
2004
2005
International tourism receipts (US$ millions)
International tourist arrivals (thousands)
Source: United Nations World Tourism Organization
2006
World’s market share (%)
International Tourist Arrivals (ITA), 2006
842 million
International Tourism Receipts (ITR), 2006
US$ 735 billion
Europe
ITA: 458 million (54%)
ITR: US$ 348 billion (51%)
Americas
ITA: 136 million (16%)
ITR: US$ 145 billion (21%)
Middle East
ITA: 41 million (5%)
ITR: US$ 28 bn (4%)
Africa
ITA: 40 million (5%)
ITR: US$ 22 billion (3%)
Asia and the Pacific
ITA: 167 million (20%)
ITR: US$ 139 billion (21%)
International Tourism Receipts (US$ Billion)
International Tourist Arrivals (Mill.)
79,1
France
41,1
Italy
30,1
UK
23,6
Germany
46,3
Italy
49,6
China
51,1
France
51,1
USA
85,7
Spain
58,5
Spain
USA
38,1
China
33,9
UK
33,5
Germany
32,8
Mexico
21,4
Australia
17,8
Austria
20,3
Turkey
16,9
Russia
20,2
Austria
16,7
Turkey
18,9
Canada
14,5
Canada
18,2
Greece
14,3
0
60
# 1720Greece:40 14,4 million
80
0
Source: World Tourism Organization
20
40
60
80
100
Top Outbound Countries
2006
World Total Expenditure: US$ 735 billion
International Tourism Receipts (US$ billion)
Germany
74,8
United States
72,0
United Kingdom
62,6
France
31,2
Japan
26,9
China
24,3
Italy
23,1
Canada
20,8
Russian Federation
18,8
Korea, Republic of
18,2
0
Source: World Tourism Organization
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
World regions depend mostly
of intra-regional tourism
Inbound tourism by origin, 2004
Europe
89
Asia and the Pacific
10
79
Americas
20
74
Middle East
24
46
Africa
51
40
0%
10%
Same region
20%
46
30%
40%
50%
60%
From other regions
70%
80%
90%
not specified
100%
Volatility and Resilience
Growth of International Tourist Arrivals & Tourism Receipts
12
% change over previous year
10
International Tourist Arrivals
International Tourism Receipts (local currencies, constant prices)
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Recovery
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
echo of the second oil crisis / martial
law in Poland /
Falklands conflict / conflict IsraelLebanon
Gulf War /
disintegration of
Yugoslavia
11S
Iraq,
SARS
Source: World Tourism Organization
The Travel & Tourism
Competitiveness Report 2007
Furthering the Process of Economic
Development
www.weforum.org
• IMF economic growth
projection of 4.9% for 2007 and
2008
• 5th consecutive year of growth
above the long-term average.
• Developing economies to
continue growth above average
( 7.5% in 2007 and 7.1% in
2008)
• Slowdown of the US economy in
Q 1 unlikely to spill over into
other regions
• Germany and UK strong
domestic demand
• Activity in emerging Asia
continues to expand, led by very
strong growth in both China
and India
• Increase in interest rates
Growth to be maintained
through 2008
Source: World Tourism Organization
2020 International Tourism Projections
International Arrivals: 1,6 billion (X 2)
Receipts: US $ 2 trillion (X 3)
Estimated average growth 1995 - 2020:
4.1% a year
Actual
Forecasts
1.600
1.6 bn
1.400
million
1.200
1.000
800
600
Middle East
1 bn
Africa
Asia/Pacific
842 mn
Americas
Europe
400
200
0
1950
Source: UNWTO
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Forecasts by Receiving Region
International Tourist Arrivals, 1995-2020
Base Year
1995
Forecasts
2010
2020
(Million)
Market share
(%)
Average annual
growth rate (%)
1995
2020
1995-2020
World
565
1006
1561
100
100
4.1
Africa
20
47
77
3.6
5.0
5.5
110
190
282
19.3
18.1
3.8
81
195
397
14.4
25.4
6.5
336
527
717
59.8
45.9
3.1
Middle East
14
36
69
2.2
4.4
6.7
South Asia
4
11
19
0.7
1.2
6.2
Americas
East Asia and
the Pacific
Europe
Source: UNWTO
World’s Top Destinations 2020
Country
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
China
France
United States
Spain
Hong Kong (China)
United Kingdom
Italy
Mexico
Russian Fed.
Czech Rep.
Source: UNWTO
Market
Tourist arrivals
Average annual
share (%) growth rate (%)
(Million)
1995-2020
130
106
102
74
57
54
53
49
48
44
8.3
6.8
6.6
4.7
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.1
3.1
2.7
7.8
2.3
3.5
2.6
7.1
3.4
2.1
3.6
8.5
4.0
World’s Top Outbound
Countries 2020
Country
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Source: UNWTO
Germany
Japan
United States
China
United Kingdom
France
Netherlands
Italy
Canada
Russian Fed.
Total arrivals
generated
worldwide
(Million)
153
142
123
100
95
55
46
35
31
31
Market
share
(%)
9.8
9.1
7.9
6.4
6.1
3.5
2.9
2.3
2.0
2.0
40%
New trends in Travel & Tourism
• Still huge potential for growth to exploit
– from current travellers and from new emerging middle
classes
– sizable populations currently still only take part in
international tourism very limitedly
• Many emerging economies show rapid economic
growth with increasing disposable incomes, that
will be spent on tourism
• In addition to traditional source markets (Western
Europe, USA, Canada, Japan,), alternative ones
(Central and Eastern Europe, China, India, Korea,
Singapore, Middle East, Mexico, Brazil, etc.)
Consumer profile and behaviour
• More mature and experienced travellers
– Increased concern for safety and security
• Access to much more information
– Consumers know what they want and what they can get
• Aging population
– Better health and economic conditions
– Seek new experiences and innovative more sophisticated
products
– Added value and services. Value for money
– Shift in power from producers to consumers
• Increased competition
• More direct distribution
– Need to develop and apply new technologies
Public-private partnerships
• Close synergy of interests
– Among business; civil society; government
– Private sector, the engine in wealth creation, involved
in telecommunications, education, health, safety, etc.
• Corporate responsibility
– Companies support community development:
environmental protection and enhancement; cultural
and heritage preservation
• Changing Public sector
– Need to reinvent itself
– More strategic approach to its role in society
– Foster trust that creates social capital
Public-private partnerships
• Governments have played a key role in the
developing of tourism
• They need to give more space to the private sector
• Many areas in which P-P sectors can work
– Marketing
– Control and monitoring of regulation
– Quality factors
– Education
– Investment
– Infrastructure
– Research, development and innovation
– Climate change
– Sustainability
– Tourism policy, etc.
Public-private partnerships
• Tourism dpts in government depend on many
other areas, not under their control
– Interior; culture & education, economy, foreign affairs,
health, infrastructure, environment, transportation, etc.
• Too many changes in Ministerial departments do
not allow for continuity and stability
• The private sector brings a closer look to the
reality of the marketplace
Good luck, bad luck.
Who knows?
ΕΥΧΑΡΙΣΤΩ
"Forces of change in world tourism. The
role of governments, enterprises and the
need for p-p partnerships"
Carlos Vogeler
Chairman Affiliate Members UNWTO