Transcript EconomicReview2005

• Impetus:2003-4
– 5.9% growth in hotels
and restaurants
– 7.8% wholesale/retail
trade
– 4% government
services
– 4.7% banking and
insurance
Tourism
• Total visitor arrivals grew
– +4.5% in 2003
– +15.5% in 2004
– 8.1% decrease in 2005
• Cruise arrivals
Oil prices +27%
Hurricanes -active
Terrorism
– -18%
– 60% of all arrivals
• “Stayover” segment +6.5%
• Yachts +21.9%
• Excursionists -34.1%
• Growth in European
visitors due to
– Relative value of US dollar
– Perception of Caribbean as
safe destination
• “Tourism receipts account
for 71% of total export of
goods and services”
Agriculture
• 2004 +1.8%, 2005 -22%
• 2004 Bananas =47%of Tot
• 2005 1.3% of GDP
– 2004Expanded by 17.7%
– 2005 Decreased by 36.2%
• Non-traditional crops =25%
– 2004-Declined 2.4%
– 2005 -16.9%
• Other sectors
– Fisheries 2004+.3%, 2005-6.8%
– Livestock 2004-14.2, 2005+2.2
Bananas
•
•
•
•
•
Total exports from Windward Islands
2004 +15.9%. 2005 -25.7%
St. Lucia’s 2004 +3% to 54% of total
2005 -29.1% to 52% of total
Contributing factors
– Hurricane Ivan, Sept. 2004, Roseau valley
– yellow sigatoka or leaf spot disease
• deterioration in field maintenance/crop husbandry
Bananas
• 11.4 percent fall in purchases by supermarkets
• Hotel purchases-16.0 percent, despite an increase in
stay-over arrivals. This highlights the weak linkage
between the two sectors, which was exacerbated the
poorly organised marketing structures that exist in the
non-traditional sector.
• There continues to be a need to strengthen the linkages
between the agricultural and the hotel sectors. However,
there are issues of availability, consistency and quality of
crops supplied. Moreover, farmers who currently have
working capital constraints have had some difficulties
adjusting to the payment systems under which hotels
operate.”
Manufacturing
• +6% in 2004, +13% in 2005
• Spurred by government
incentives and increased
domestic demand
• Constraints
– Diseconomies of scale
– Cost of energy
– Cost of shipping to external
markets
• 7% of total employment
• Beverages constitute 50% of
all manufacturing exports
Communications/
Telecommunications
Communications/
Telecommunications
• 2004 +4.6%
• 11.3% of real GDP
• “cellular, internet and cable sub-sectors continued to
grow albeit at a slower rate relative to 2004. 9.6 percent
decrease in cellular minutes sold.”
• the land line component continued to decline in both
subscriber base and activity, a trend which began with
the introduction of the new mobile companies in 2003.
Electricity
• 4.8% increase in electricity generated
• All categories except industrial recorded increases in
consumption
• 3.2% increase in domestic consumption
– Vs. 6.2% increase in commercial consumers
• Number of hotel consumers increased 8.3% but demand
increased 2.6%
• 2004 price LUCELEC paid +30% to $3.82/gallon
• 2005 +55% to 5.87/gallon
– 2004 Fuel surcharge +23% to 22.6 /unit. Highest in eight years
– 2005 +42% to 32.1c
Alternative sources of energy
• The Government of Saint Lucia is currently
working on a National Energy Policy.
• Geothermal
• Solar
– Working with the United Nations Industrial
Development Organization to develop a solar
financing project; aimed a promoting benefits of solar
water heating and procuring solar energy amongst
low-income households.
• Wind
– Continuing to encourage development of wind
energy
– Received technical assistance under the
Caribbean Renewable Energy Development
Project (CREDP)
– Help Lucelec acquire 71 acres
– Measuring equip. provided
• Landfill gas
– Undertaken assessment of potential for
capture of landfill gas; feasibility studies have
produced promising results
• Hydroelectricity
– Study conducted on potential of John
Compton Dam
– Potential for construction of small plant with
installed capacity of 200kW
Misc. statistics of interest
• Population: 162,311
• Birth rate: 15.3/1000 population
– US rate: 13.9 (2002)
– Kenya: 40.13
• Infant mortality rate: 14.7/births
– US: 6.8
– Kenya: 62.62
Construction
• Public sector construction expenditure more
than doubled to $134.5 million,
• “During 2005, the level of tourism investment
within the domestic economy was
unprecedented. This high level of investment
can be associated with the International Cricket
World Cup which will be partly hosted by St.
Lucia in 2007.”
• Properties expected to open in 2005:
– Four new hotels
• 590 new rooms/apartments/villas
• Construction costs: $85 million
• Properties under construction 2005 ($130million)
–
–
–
–
30-home timeshare resort (Soufriere)
20-condo complex (Rodney Bay)
50-villa, 144-condo and marina facility (Rodney Bay)
300-room Beaches Resort (Rodney Bay)
• Continued investment in road infrastructure
– Castries/Gros Islet highway upgrade
– East Coast Road
• Planned $34.2 million government expenditure
to upgrade Beausejour Cricket Ground
• WASCO expenditure of $5-7 million on Northern
Water Supply project
– Increase supply by 25%