Transcript chapter-4 Simulation

• Exercise N:1 (Simulation modeling of inventory systems)
• Ahmed home furnishing is currently having its year-end appliance
clearance sale. The store has 12 refrigerators on sale; 5 are white, 4
are almond, and 3 are harvest gold. Each day, the company expects
between 0 and 4 customers interested in buying refrigerator to
arrive at the store according to the following probability
distribution:
• P(0 arrivals) = .15; P(1 arrival) = .25; P(2 arrivals) = .30; P(3 arrivals)
= .20; P(4 arrivals) = .10
• For each of these customers, there is a 60% chance that the person
will want to purchases one of the sale-priced refrigerators.
• Ahmed knows that 40% of customers desire a white refrigerator,
25% desire an almond refrigerator, and 35% desire a harvest gold
refrigerator. If the store is sold out of a particular color choice, the
customer will leave without making a purchase.
• Use random numbers from column 1 to determine the number of
customer arrivals, column 2 to determine whether an arriving
customer will wish to purchase a refrigerator, and column 3 to
determine the choice of color. How many days will it take for
Ahmed to sell all 12 refrigerators?
• Solution
[This exercise is based on Simulation modeling of
inventory systems ieA survey of simulation
techniques used in the modeling of in ventory
systems .Ahamed took year end sales
clearence,he came to know 12 refrigerators on
sales of them 5 white color, 4 almond and 3
harvest gold color.
Each day expect of buying between 0 to 4
• probability distribution are
• P(0 arrivals) = .15; P(1 arrival) = .25; P(2 arrivals) =
.30; P(3 arrivals) = .20; P(4 arrivals) = .10]
• Find the cumulative probability
P(x<=3)=p(x=0)+p(x=1)+p(x=2)+p(x=3)
We can setup cumulative probability based on
customer arrival.
Cum prob
# arrival
0
0.15
0
1
•
•
•
•
Cumprob
0.4
0.7
0.9
#Arrival
2
3
4
• We can setup cum prob based on color of refrigerator
•
Cumprob
type
• 0
• 0.4
• 0.655
•
•
•
•
white
almond
gold
We can setup chance for people to buy the refrigerator
Cum prob
Decision
0
yes
0.6
No
• Now we are going to find how many days
needed to sale all the 12 refrigrerator