Transcript 5 - Turizmus.com

Az orosz piac kihívásai 2015-ben
Horváth Gergely
Elmúlt évek dinamikus növekedése Magyarországon
Az orosz vendégforgalom alakulása a kereskedelmi
szálláshelyeken
2007 - 2014
800,000
3.
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
14.
100,000
0
2007
2008
2009
Vendég
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014*
Vendégéjszaka
* Előzetes adatok
Russia travel growth has been very strong…
Total Russian outbound travel, 1990-2013
Overni ght visitor a rrivals from Russia by destination
No. of outbound tourists (mns)
45
World
to Europe*
12% CAGR
40
35
30
25
20
15% CAGR
15
10
5
0
2000
2005
2010
* Europe is defined as ETC members plus France, Netherlands and UK
3
… making a very large contribution to growth for
all European sub-regions…
Russian contribution to growth across Europe, 2008-13
% of total Europe inbound arrivals growth 2008-13
C/Baltic Europe
C/E. Europe
S/Med Euro pe
Positive
contribution
N. Europe
W. Europe
0%
4
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
…with differences by country and city
Russian contribution to growth for European cities, 2008-13
% of total inbound arrivals growth 2008-13, selected cities from Global City Travel database
with large Russian visits
Helsinki
Sofia Tallin
Riga Prague
Madrid
Vilnius Rome
Vienna
Lyon Istanbul
Munich
Barcelona
Budapest
Berlin
Amsterdam
Antalya
Milan Paris
London
Positive
contribution
0%
5
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
European arrivals from Russia down in 2014…
Russian visitor nights in select destinations
2014, year-to-date*, % change year ago
2014, year-to-date*, % change year ago
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
Serbia
UK
Iceland
Italy
Montenegro
Turkey
Cyprus
Latvia
Hungary
Czech Rep
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Greece
Estonia
Spain
Austria
Belgium
Germany
Romania
Lithuania
Switzerland
Croatia
Poland
Malta
Slovakia
50
Source: TourMIS
6
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
*date varies (Jan-Dec) by destination
Serbia
Italy
Hungary
Netherlands
Belgium
Germany
Luxembourg
Austria
Czech Rep
Estonia
Denmark
Lithuania
Switzerland
Latvia
Spain
Slovenia
Poland
Portugal
Finland
Malta
Sweden
Croatia
Slovakia
Norway
Visits from Russia to select destinations
Source: TourMIS
*date varies (Jan-Dec) by destination
…broadly in line with expectation
Divergence of scenarios, ETC+3 arrivals
Counterfactual
Increased sanctions
Latest data
European arrivals from Russia (000s)
24000
Current sanctions
Conflict
22000
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
2012
7
2013
2014
2015
2016
But travel to Europe fell late in the year
European travel from Russia & exchange rate
Annual % change
20%
10%
8th September: Oil price
drops below $100pb
17th March: first travel
bans and asset freezes
imposed
27th November: Oil
price below $75pb
0%
-10%
-20%
ETC+3 arrivals*
-30%
ETC+3 excl Turkey
-40%
-50%
Jan-14
Rouble v Euro
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Source: TourMIS, Tourism Economics.
* collated monthly TourMIS reporting, excludes some European destinations. Indicative of trend
not growth rate
8
Oil price falls and collapse in rouble value…
Russia: Rouble and oil
RUB/US$
30
US$/barrel
120
RUB/US$
(RHS, inverted)
110
40
100
45
90
80
35
Oil price (LHS)
50
55
70
60
60
65
50
70
40
Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14
75
Jul-14
Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
9
…are leading to deep recession…
Russia: GDP and Oil Price
% year
Russia GDP
15%
140
Oil price, US$ pb
120
10%
100
5%
80
0%
60
-5%
40
-10%
20
Forecast
-15%
2006
0
2008
Source: Oxford Economics
10
2010
2012
2014
2016
…not fully anticipated in prior scenarios…
Russia: GDP forecast evolution
% year
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
April 2014 forecast
October 2014 forecast
February 2015 forecast
-8%
-10%
2013
Forecast
2014
Source: Oxford Economics
11
2015
2016
Tourism a key area for import substitution
Russia: Domestic v Outbound Tourism
% year
Domestic Hotel Arrivals
Russian Outbound Trips
35%
25%
15%
5%
-5%
-15%
Forecast
-25%
2006
2008
Source: Oxford Economics
12
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Further falls for Europe expected in 2015
Divergence of scenarios, ETC+3 arrivals
Counterfactual
Increased sanctions
Latest trends
European arrivals from Russia (000s)
24000
Current sanctions
Conflict
22000
20000
18000
-25%
16000
14000
-40%
12000
10000
2012
13
2013
2014
2015
2016
With large divergence in country performance
Arrivals from Russia: 2013-16
Cumulative arrivals falls/gains from Russia, % change over 3 years
Slovakia Iceland Switzerland Belgium Luxembourg
Sweden Slovenia Denmark Poland Montenegro Romania Germany
Greece Spain Norway Finland
Italy Netherlands
Austria Turkey Hungary France Malta Lithuania Bulgaria Estonia Croatia
Cyprus
UK
Czech Rep.
Latvia
-30%
14
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Russia arrivals pulling down 2015 performance
ETC+3 tourism demand by origin
% year
Total arrivals
20%
From other ETC+3 markets
From Long-haul
From Other Europe
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
2011
2012
Source : Tourism Economics
15
2013
2014
2015
2016
And risk of conflict remains
Divergence of scenarios, ETC+3 arrivals
Counterfactual
Increased sanctions
Latest trends
European arrivals from Russia (000s)
24000
Current sanctions
Conflict
New conflict
22000
20000
18000
16000
14000
-50%
12000
10000
2012
16
2013
2014
2015
2016
Lehetséges válaszok
1. A kimaradó orosz kereslet pótlása más piacokról
2. Fenntartó marketingtevékenység