Transcript AFP.12.1.Russia - High Point University

Russia and the US
• Population: Them: 150 million and shrinking; US: 300 million
and growing (why immigration won’t work for them)
• GDP: Them 1.29 trillion; Avg. annual growth = 10%; 2009
contraction = 10%
US: 13.4 trillion
• Nuclear warheads (deployed/ total). Them: 4718 / 13000
US: 2623 / 9400 (China: 180 / 240)
• Military spending; Them: 59 billion (4% global, 4%GDP)
US: 607 billion (around half global; 4%GDP)
A quick review of past relations…
• Why didn’t we like them? Why didn’t they like us?
• What interests and strategies did we have in common?
Anti-imperialism, deterrence, BOP, centralization of
domestic power, bipolarism
• What role did we play in their “democratic” transition
(and its failure)?
– Spending pressures
– Europe or US as model?
– Staying out of the way
– Are Russians ready for democracy and a market
economy? Did we push them? Not guide them?
– Did we make a mistake by backing Yeltsin?
US-RUSSIAN RELATIONS TODAY: THE REALIST SCHOOL
• The core argument: We still have many strategic interests Russia that
trump their becoming a democracy
• They aren’t our “friends:” Balancing doctrine…Or are they: biopolarism
in Europe with US helping the USSR to balance Europe
• A weaker, democratic Russia more threatens us than a strong undemo.
one.
• Does the oil rule apply?
• Their nukes require realism
– The Treaty of Moscow: fewer bombs but still on hair trigger status
– Dissolution of the ABM treaty; debates about missile shields
– Russian new generation of MIRVs
• The Red Army’s threat to Europe vs. the threat to itself
• Legitimate security concerns will lead to a predictably aggressive Russia
– 50 million Russians in the “near abroad”
– NATO and EU expansion into the Baltics, Poland, & the perhaps the
Ukraine (this is what Georgia was about)
– Chechnya and the war on terrorism
US-RUSSIAN RELATIONS TODAY: THE LIBERAL
PERSPECTIVE IN THE REGION
• The core argument: Russia matters tremendously for the Third
Wave of Democracy
• Putin the terrible: He is a model for Post-Soviet autocracies and
we need to change him if we can
• Is it a wise idea to have different rules for non-western formerSoviet states?
• WTO and a Russian “special relationship” with NATO would
make Russia less aggressive… but their behavior must be
changed first
• A democratic, transparent Russia will be more stable
economically… we should pressure for democracy in the region
• US should be willing to compromise strike power in return for
reducing our threat Russia
• The US should try to aid Russian development because its
emphasis on its primary economy will harm US interests over the
long run