Transcript МИРОВОЙ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЙ РОСТ

WHAT’S WRONG WITH RUSSIAN IFLATION?
A. Illarionov,
CATO Institute, Washington, USA
Institute of Economic Analysis, Moscow, Russia
American Enterprise Institute,
Washington, DC, December 18, 2007
© CATO Institute, Institute of Economic Analysis
www.cato.org, www.cato.ru, www.iea.ru
Inflation forecasted and actual:
Authors/Years
2007
Ministry of Economy
Central Bank
7,0-8,0
6,5-8,0
6-7
6-7
11,6
?
Actual in November 2007
2
2008
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Annual CPI and other inflation indices, %
3
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Annual CPI and its components, %
4
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Food or budget?
Structural or macroeconomic?
5
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Price of food so far did not deviate significantly
from the price trends of other commodities.
6
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Annual indices of M2 and Inflation
with lags from 18 to 25 months.
7
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Russia is at 21st place among 180 countries
by annual CPI index in 1999-2006.
8
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Russia is at 2nd place among 180 countries
by increase in US dollar prices in 1999-2006.
9
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Russia is at 3rd place among 180 countries
by increase in real effective exchange rate
(comparative prices) in 1999-2006.
10
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Russia is at 9th place among 165 countries by annual
broad money supply growth rate in 1999-2006.
11
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Russia is at 13th place among 161 countries
by budget balance as % of GDP in 1999-2006.
12
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But it is only at 133rd place among 146 countries by
non-oil & non-gas budget balance as % of GDP in 2006.
13
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Federal government non-interest expenditures
as % of GDP has almost doubled from 2000 to 2007.
14
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