Transcript Current US Nuclear Weapons Stockpiles

Rethinking the Future
– A series of four lectures –
by Joseph A. Camilleri
Hosted by St Michael’s on Collins Melbourne
First
Lecture
Are we entering
a new Cold War?
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2
3
The Great Transition
In theory, our world still rests on
a system of national, sovereign sates.
In practice, it operates as
a web of cross-national or transnational flows.
Ours is a world in which
people, goods & services, capital, technology, arms,
information, images, carbon emissions, viruses
FLOW ACROSS BORDERS
at ever increasing scale, speed & intensity
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5
Rising US Trade Deficit
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US Trade Balance in $ billion
1964:
6
1971:
-1
1974
-4
1987:
-154
2008:
-698
2010:
-485
2012:
-540
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US Budget Deficits in $ billion
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US Net Investment Position (2012)
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Advanced Economies Annual GDP Growth
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Emerging Economies Annual GDP Growth
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G7 and E7 Economies 2011 and 2050
PwC Economics January 2013
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Expected Changes
China
Overtake US as largest economy by
2017 in PPP terms & by 2027 in market
exchange rate terms
India
Become third ‘global economic giant’ by
2050
Brazil
Move up to 4th place ahead of Japan by 2050
Russia
Overtake Germany to become largest
European economy before 2020 in PPP
terms
Mexico &
Indonesia
Larger than UK & France by 2050
Turkey
Larger than Italy by 2050.
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China’s Rise
Chinese Real GDP Growth: 1979-2013 (%)
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China’s Rise
Projections for Chinese and U.S. GDP on a PPP Basis: 2000-2030 ($ trillions)
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China’s Rise
Chinese Real GDP Growth: 1979-2013 (%)
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China’s Rise
Annual FDI Flows to China: 1985-2013 ($ billions)
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China’s Rise
China’s Annual FDI Outflows: 2000-2013 ($ billions)
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China’s Rise
China’s Share of Global Merchandise Exports: 1990-2013 ($ billions)
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21
Russia under Putin
After 9/11 attacks Putin quickly supported US in ”war on terror”
In 2003 Russia opposed UN invasion of Iraq
From then on he would consistently & openly criticise what he called
US monopolistic dominance in global relations
In December 2007 Russia suspended its participation in the Treaty on
Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE)
In 2008 Moscow used force to support independence of Abkhazia
and South Ossetia from Georgia
In January 2009 gas dispute with Ukraine  state-controlled Russian
company Gazprom to halt its deliveries of natural gas to Ukraine
In 2010 Russia formed Eurasian Customs Union with former Soviet
Republics, Kazakhstan and Belarus
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US Actions
Bombing of Serbia without UN Security Council approval (1999)
US withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (2002)
US invasion of Iraq in defiance of UN opposition (2003)
Overt support for the colour revolutions on Russia’s doorstep:
Georgia: 2003; Ukraine: 2004; Kyrgyzstan: 2005
Western military intervention in Libya, which contrary to
assurances brought about regime change (2011)
Magnitsky Act singling out Russia for human rights violations
(2012)
Attempts to weaken Russia’s position in Syria (2011-)
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Nuclear Weapons
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Nuclear Weapons
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Nuclear Weapons
Immediate Effects
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Nuclear Weapons
Long Term Effects
THREAT TO FOOD SAFETY:
Radioactive fallout could make large areas unsuitable for food production for a very long
time.
DISPLACEMENT:
Those living within 20 to 50 km radius from ground zero would seek to avoid risk of
radiation and infrastructure collapse by abandoning the area.
ECONOMIC DISRUPTION:
One nuclear explosion could destroy productive capacities, infrastructure and
communication networks of an entire area, affect whole country & even whole region.
ENVIRONMENTAL COLLAPSE:
One nuclear explosion  widespread radioactive contamination, making food + water
unusable.
Several nuclear explosions  enough soot would rise to the atmosphere to cause large
fall in temperatures with devastating impact for global production of staple crops (e.g.29rice,
maize) on which millions depend.
Resources
Website
www.Josephcamilleri.org
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