Transcript Energy Scenarios for Sustainable Development

Sustainable Energy for All
A Perspective from GEA
Nebojša Nakićenović
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx
Technische Universität Wien xx
[email protected]
Sustainable Energy for All, UN, NYC – 19-20 September 2011
2030 Energy Goals
● Universal Access to Modern Energy
● Double Energy Efficiency Improvement
● Double Renewable Share in Final Energy
Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable
UN General Assembly resolution 65/151
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
Towards a more Sustainable Future
 Universal access is a pre-condition for
overcoming poverty and feasible if all stakeholders work together.
 Energy transformation will bring multiple cobenefits for health, security, climate change
 Financing requirements are huge but
achievable with right and sustained policies
Mapping Energy Access
Final energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density
#4
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
Towards a more Sustainable Future
 Universal access is a pre-condition for
overcoming poverty and feasible if all stakeholders work together.
 Energy transformation will bring multiple cobenefits for health, security, climate change
 Financing requirements are huge but
achievable with right and sustained policies
Global Primary Energy
1200
1000
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
800
Microchip
EJ
Commercial
aviation
Nuclear
energy
600
Television
400
200
Steam
engine
Electric
motor
Vacuum
tube
Gasoline
engine
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
0
1850
#6
Biomass
1900
1950
2000
2050
Global Primary Energy
no CCS, no Nuclear
1200
1000
800
Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
Microchip
EJ
Commercial
aviation
Nuclear
energy
600
Television
400
200
Steam
engine
Electric
motor
Vacuum
tube
Gasoline
engine
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
0
1850
#7
Biomass
1900
1950
2000
2050
Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation)
Global Primary Energy
no CCS, no Nuclear
1200
1000
800
Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,
and behavior)
~40% improvement by 2030
~30% renewables by 2030
EJ
Nuclear phase-out (choice)
600
Oil phase-out (necessary)
Renewables
Nuclear
400
Gas
Oil
200
Coal
0
1850
#8
Biomass
1900
1950
2000
2050
Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation)
Global Primary Energy
lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN
1200
1000
800
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,
and behavior)
~40% improvement by 2030
Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
~30% renewables by 2030
EJ
Limited Intermittent REN
600
Oil phase-out (necessary)
Renewables
Nuclear
400
Nat-gas-CCS
Coal-CCS
200
Limited Bioenergy
Bio-CCS – “negative CO2”
Gas
Oil
Coal
0
1850
#9
Biomass
1900
1950
2000
2050
Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation)
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
Towards a more Sustainable Future
 Universal access is a pre-condition for
overcoming poverty and feasible if all stakeholders work together.
 Energy transformation will bring multiple cobenefits for health, security, climate change
 Financing requirements are huge but
achievable with right and sustained policies
Co-Benefits of Energy Investments
#13
Co-Benefits of Energy Investments
#14
The Way Forward
● Global Political Commitment – the huge
multiple benefits as drivers
● Country Level Action is Key – identifying what
works best in each country
● Private Sector is Key Partner – enabling
environments for investment
● Facilitating Decision Making – much analytic
and data work needed
● Supporting Country Efforts – financial and
UN General Assembly
resolution
65/151
capacity development
huge
needs
Integrated Solutions
● Political – links to global debates (MDGs,
UNFCCC, WTO, RIO + 20, etc.)
● Sectoral – links to policies in other sectors are
fundamental
● Geography - urban, provincial, regional,
national linkages are necessary
● People - education, information and incentives
for lifestyle changes
● Implementation - strong institutions (national
UN Generaland
Assembly
resolution 65/151
and international)
facilitating
mechanisms