Transcript Renewables: can they deliver?

Renewables: can they deliver?
Jorgen Mads Clausen
CEO of Danfoss
Chairman of Danish Energy Industries Federation
European Business Summit
Greening The Economy
New Energy For Business
21st February 2008
VISION
- Meeting the Carbon Challenge
We are on the edge of a new energy revolution.
The coming decades will bring huge changes to energy systems throughout
the world.
The challenge will be to provide eight billion people with energy and, at the
same time, protect resources and the environment.
Technology will most certainly be fundamental in making it possible to meet
the world’s growing energy needs in a socially and environmentally
responsible way.
A Bright Green Strategy
Tackling climate change is a pro-growth
strategy
Economic growth and welfare can be
maintained without influencing the climate
negatively
This is what we have experienced in
Denmark, and this is what we call
"The Bright Green Strategy"
Here technology has a central role to play
The case of Denmark:
Wealth-creation at constant energy consumption
180
The Danish gross domestic
product (GDP) grew by 75 pct.
from 1980 to 2006 (at constant
prices). In the same period the
consumption of energy in
Denmark has been more or
less constant.
160
140
120
100
80
60
1980
'85
'90
'95
GDP, 2000 Prices
Gross Energy Consumption, Adjusted
Source: Danish Energy Authority
'00
'05
This means that each unit of
GDP requires approximately
40 per cent less energy today
than in 1980
The role of Technology
World Energy Consumption
-and the role of renewables
Power Generation 1000 TWh
29.0
2.8 %/a
Geothermal Other
Wind 12%
Solar
Hydro
15.4
9%
Oil
Natural gas
67 %
Biomass/residues
Other
Geothermal 5%2%
Nuclear
1%
20%
Other Renewables
31%
Biomass/residues
Wind
53%
<2% of total
Coal
2000
5,5% of total
2020
Renewables are only part of the answer
Source: Siemens
Renewables are only part of the answer
CO2 e
Emissions
Innovative solutions for reduction
of CO2 emissions
Population
Demography
Difficult to
influence
X
GDP /
Population
Wealth
X
Energy /
GDP
Energy
Intensity
X
CO2e /
Energy
The Kaya Identity
Carbon
Intensity
May be
Influenced by
choice of
technology
Switch to renewables
 Wind
 Biomass
 Solar
…
Influenceable with
technological innovations
=
Efficient energy generation
 Highly efficient gas and steam turbines
 Coal carbon capture storage (CCS)
 Cogeneration
…
Efficient energy distribution
 Smart grid
 High-voltage DC transmission systems
 Distributed heating and cooling systems
…
Efficient energy consumption
 Fuel efficient vehicles
 Building technology measures
 Energy saving lighting
 Distributed heating and cooling systems
…
Meeting the carbon challenge
Making the right choices
Some comments:
- All technologies, including
renewables, must be in
play in order reach the
carbon goal
- However, we need to fix
the order of priority in
order to reach the goal
in an efficient manner
- Energy efficiency has
a vital role to play and
must not be forgotten
- Higher focus on energy
efficiency will also ease the
effort to reach the targets
for renewables
- Multiple business
opportunities
Source: Vattenfall, McKinsey
Making the right choices
Short term and long term
•
Many future alternatives exits
•
However, in the short term we need to focus
on deploying existing, well proven and fully
available technologies
•
Especially technologies improving energy
efficiency need to be in focus if we are going
to reach the objectives of bringing down CO2emissions
•
Some of these technologies will also increase
the share of renewables, especially district
heating and cooling technologies
Meeting the carbon challenge
Before 2020
•
District heating and cooling technology – the most energy
efficient form of energy production (combined electricity and
heating)
•
Biomass heating technology – Co2 natural and attractive
alternative to oil and gas
•
Heat pump technology – high efficient heat pumps as the best
alternative to individual oil and gas boilers
•
Comfort controls technology – to reduce energy use for comfort
heating and to increase human comfort
•
Energy audits and trimming – to reduce energy usage
All the above mentioned alternatives are based on existing, well proven and
fully available technologies
District heating and cogeneration
The sleeping giant
District Heating example:
Increasing the District
Heating share from its
current 6% to 12% in
Europe will have major
effects
•
Lower import dependency of 4.5 EJ… or the
equivalent of Poland’s energy supply
•
Giving a reduction of the primary energy
supply of 2.1 EJ … or the equivalent of
Sweden’s energy supply
•
Reduction of 400 million tons CO2 per year
… or the equivalent of the emissions from
fuel combustion in France
•
Higher share of renewables as district
heating is a common carrier for renewables
like wind, biomass, solar ….
Conclusion
A Bright Green Future
With climate change hard upon us, a new green
movement is taking shape - one that embraces the
concerns of environmentalism but rejects its worn-out
answers.
Renewables are part of the solution
But, we all have an obligation to make sure that we
use existing, well proven and fully available
technologies to secure immediately improvements of
energy efficiency and CO2 reductions
See more about Bright Green here:
www.ei.di.dk
This is a Bright Green Strategy