Transcript Slide 1

PEOPLE CLIMATE
ENERGY
Ron Oxburgh
CO2 concentration and Global
Temperature
400
0.5
0.4
0.3
300
0.2
250
0.1
0.0
200
-0.1
150
-0.2
2001
1921
1901
1881
-0.6
1981
-0.5
1961
-0.4
100
Temperature Variation
(w.r.t. 1961-90)
50
Atmospheric CO2
Concentration
0
Smoothed Variation
1941
-0.3
Atmospheric CO2, ppm
350
1861
Difference (deg.C) from 1961-1990
0.6
FRANZ JOSEF
GLACIER
SOUTH ISLAND
NEW ZEALAND
1880
TODAY
The planet
► The
‘success’ of human beings
► Explosive growth in numbers
► Extinction of many other species
► Driven by need for




Food
Water
Energy
Waste disposal
The Challenge
► Prosperity
of Western World based
on fossil fuels
► We have to do something
► BUT it must be:
Technically practicable
Politically practicable
Soon enough
Why are we hooked on fossil fuels?
Fossil Fuels offer:
►Convenient
energy storage
- energy on demand
►High energy density
Energy Density
energy equal – volume different
=
10 litre
60 -120 litre
Strategy
•Economise
•Minimise
burning fossil
fuels
•And minimise
CO2 release to
the atmosphere
Is a totally renewables-based energy
strategy possible?
Maybe, but not yet.
Why not? Renewables can
be:
•Low energy density
•Location specific
•Intermittent
•Require high degree of
optimisation
•‘Expensive’
•Have an environmental
Energy not easy
to store
At present few
storage
choices:
►Water
►Batteries
►Hydrogen
►Compressed
air etc.
None is generally
convenient or efficient
Intermittent Renewables
►
►
►
►
Wind
Wave
Tide
Sun
Value would be
enormously increased
if economic energy
storage technology
were developed
Continuous Renewables
► Hydro-power
► Geothermal*
► Landfill
methane*
► Direct-burn
biomass &
urban waste
► Bio-liquid fuels
Bio-fuels
► Essential
for sustainable road transport
► Technology is in its infancy
► Currently bio-fuels very expensive
► Less energy/litre than fossil fuel liquids
 Ethanol
 Bio-diesel
► How
much can we afford?
► Integrated production of fuel and food?
Future Biomass Flows
Urban waste
Agriculture & Forestry
Waste Wood
paper etc.
Bio-fuels
Food
Local Power Generation
CHP
Bio-mass
returned to Land
Other
Re-cycling
Carbon Capture & Storage
Sequestration : essential transitional
technology but with a cash & energy cost
► Trap
CO2 at source
 Retrofit expensive (+50%?)
 New-fit (+25%?)
► Transport
- pipelines
► Storage – a very familiar gas
 New solids – building materials
 Depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs
 Saline aquifers
What are the obstacles to progress?
•Our systems
•Slow replacement of infra-structure
- Cars 10 -15 years
-
Aircraft 20 -30 years
Wind turbines 25 years
Power plants 40+years
Trains 30+ years
Electricity distribution
networks 40+ years
- Houses 70+ years
How might it happen?
Cost
Bio-fuels
Fired
Biomass,
Wind
Present
Clean
gas,
coal,
nuclear
Time
2030
GDP & Energy use
– various countries 2001
400
Energy Use, GJ per capita
350
Canada
USA
300
250
200
Russia
UK
150
100
50
0
$0
$5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000
GDP per capita, US$ 1995 ppp
Primary energy Per Capita
Increase in Energy Use vs GDP
1971-2001, Malaysia, China, Korea
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
$0
$2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,00 $12,00 $14,00 $16,00
0
0
0
0
GDP per Capita
Populations, GDP & energy
200
150
>$ 12,000
100
50
$5 –
12,000
Per cap. primary energy GJ
250
< $1,500
$1.5 – 5,000
0
0.0
2000.0
4000.0
World Population, millions
6000.0
A view from Brazil
“We are not prepared to discuss reductions in
emissions”
Everton Viera Vargas, (Leader
of the Brazilian delegation to Buenas Aires)
12/04
Kyoto
Kyoto message
“Energy is essential for our development and
we cannot afford to pay world prices for oil
and gas.
Our possibilities are clear – coal and nuclear.
We can develop them with or without help
from the West.
With help, coal will be cleaner and nuclear will
be safer, but develop them we will”
Conclusions
► Less
expensive to respond to climate
change than to ignore it
► Infrastructure changes slowly – start now
► Determined government action essential
within and between countries
► A way must be found of supporting clean
energy development in emerging
countries
…recommends
•Implementing in 2010 a mandatory
economy-wide tradable-permits system
designed to curb further growth in the
nation’s emissions of greenhouse
gases….
•Increased funding for renewable
technology research..
•Tax credit for all non-carbon energy
sources…
•Establishing a $1.5 billion fund over ten
years to increase domestic production
of advanced non-petroleum
transportation fuels from biomass,
including waste
mTonnes pa CO2 to atmosphere
30000
25000
India
20000
China
Mexico
15000
Russia
Brazil
10000
Developed Countries
5000
0
2000
2050 Pop. Effect
only
2050 Pop.+
Develt.
The World's Main Coal Reserves
300
mTonnes
250
200
150
100
50
0
USA
Russia
China
India
Australia
Per cap. Energy & GDP
by IEA Grouping, 2001
Dd
primary energy GJ
250.00
200.00
EU
150.00
15
E
100.00
50.00
Developing
0.00
0
P
5000
10000
15000
20000
per cap. GDP $US
25000
30000