Transcript Energy demand, supply and security - School

Section 1 To what extent is the world's energy 'secure' at
present ?
Energy demand, supply and security
Aims of this lesson:
What will be the effects of the increasing energy
role of China and India?
From the Spec:
1.3: Demand for energy is growing globally, and at regional and local scales,
especially in developed and emerging economies such as China and India
We need to examine:
Trends in global energy supply and demand by source, type of
economy and economic sector
1.4: Energy security depends on resource availability (domestic and foreign)
and security of supply, which can be affected by geopolitics, and is a key issue
for many economies.
We need to examine:
An awareness that there is little excess capacity to ease
pressure on energy resources and therefore energy insecurity is rising
particularly for finite resources.
Read the viewpoints and consider why the
ideas are held and by whom.
Preventing India's
energy from being
stolen from its grid
would improve
efficiency. Getting
China to cut back on
coal is crucial.
Viewpoints
Meanwhile, there's a dark horse
coming up on the outside in the
race, New Energy. China is
aggressively developing solar
and India’s Suzlon is one of the
world leaders in wind. China’s
goal is to get 15% of its
electricity from New Energy by
2020. India intends to get 10%
by 2012. And nobody is taking
any kind of interest except a
business interest.
Shirong Chen, China editor, BBC News: "What if China got all
this clean coal technology and their economy would develop
even faster? What would happen to the big economies like the
USA and India?"
Viewpoints
Ironically, "clean" coal
technology growth in China is
being stymied by Western
interests' fear of giving the
booming Chinese economy
that competitive leg up.
Both China and India have nuclear energy
programs and the rest of the world is more
than a little uneasy about them. Australia
just announced it will not sell uranium to
India because India is not a signatory to
the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Pact.
Leaders in the U.S. Senate last month
rejected a commitment to get 15% of U.S.
electricity from New Energy by 2020 on
the grounds that many south-eastern
states could not meet that standard.
Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi
aren’t capable of doing what India and
China are doing?
Viewpoints
The following slides
are just an overview
What changes are coming?
Why?
What will be the impacts?
Use the articles to
answer the questions
in detail – present
how you wish
•WHAT
Energy demand growth in China and India is driving
world markets and shows no sign of letting up. Despite
recent agreements between the 2 countries, competition
for supplies is heated.
WHEN
- In 1993, China did not import oil. By 2030, it will import
as much as the U.S.
- By 2030, India’s oil imports will be greater than those
of Japan or the European Union.
WHERE
- In Beijing and Delhi, the race for oil deals in Latin America,
Central Asia and Africa is a critical concern.
- China seems less inhibited about doing business with
governments shunned by the West like Iran, Burma and
Venezuela.
WHY
- China’s economy is based on manufacturing, India’s is strongly
service-based. This makes China even more energy-hungry.
- India’s more open, democratic political system puts it at a
disadvantage. e.g. A nuclear deal is being blocked in India by antiU.S. politics while China is expanding nuclear plans at the
government leadership’s will. But neither country will get more
than 4% of its power from nuclear in 2020.
- Both India and China are developing wind, biomass, solar and
hydro-electric energy resources.
- India has enormous undeveloped hydroelectric resources.
China’s and India’s net oil imports are expected to
jump to 19.1 million barrels a day in 2030 from 5.4
million barrels in 2006, more than what the United
States and Japan now import. By 2030, global oil
demand is expected to reach 116 million barrels a
day.
The use of coal, made attractive by oil and natural
gas prices, is expected to rise 73 percent in the next
25 years, mostly because of Chinese and Indian
use. The share of natural gas is projected to
increase modestly while electricity use doubles.
KEY VARIABLES: MOST POPULOUS/WEALTHIEST NATIONS
China & India convert energy into wealth (BTUs per $1.00 of GNP)
at only about 25% the efficiency of the USA or European Community
This projection from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows
that China’s energy consumption could nearly double in the next twenty
years, and virtually all of this new energy will come from coal.
Sources from http://www.ecoworld.com/features/2007/05/19/chinas-energy-demand/
Energy Security – what factors affect this?
•Resource availability –both domestic and foreign
•Security of supply
This can be affected by geopolitics and is a key issue for
many economies. You looked at this last lesson)
As there is little excess capacity (little to spare) to ease
pressure on energy resources, energy insecurity is rising
–particularly for the non-renewable resources.
The key energy issues for individual countries are the 3
S’s – sustainability, security, and strategy
Task
Read through the pages 17-21 and answer the following
questions
• Produce an annotated map showing the distribution and
availability of energy resources in China
• Create a flow chart/spider diagram to show the reasons
for China’s energy insecurity
• Create a second diagram to show the steps which China
is taking to tackle this energy insecurity
• What problems has China’s increasing demand foe
energy created in the short term?
• What are the long-term consequences?
• Compare the energy security of China with Japan (see
table on page 21)What are the similarities/ differences?