Transcript Nebojsa Nakicenovic, IIASA (Day 1)

Sustainable Energy for All
A Perspective from GEA
Nebojša Nakićenović
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx
Technische Universität Wien xx
[email protected]
Sustainable Energy for All, UN, NYC – 19-20 September 2011
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
Towards a more Sustainable Future
 Energy is a crucial development goal for
responding to challenges in the 21st century
 Universal access is a pre-condition for
overcoming poverty and feasible if all stakeholders work together.
 Energy transformation will bring multiple cobenefits for health, security, climate change
 Financing requirements are huge but
achievable with right and sustained policies
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
Towards a more Sustainable Future
 Energy is a crucial development goal for
responding to challenges in the 21st century
 Universal access is a pre-condition for
overcoming poverty and feasible if all stakeholders work together.
 Energy transformation will bring multiple cobenefits for health, security, climate change
 Financing requirements are huge but
achievable with right and sustained policies
Mapping Energy Access
Final energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density
Billions of people:
Abject poverty: 1.3
Poor: 0.6
Less poor: 1.4
Middle class: 1.6
Rich: 1.2
#5
3.3
2.8
Alternative Access Policies
Solid Fuel Users Sub- Saharan Africa
Liquid Fuel Users Sub-Saharan Africa
4,2
Solid Fuel Users Pacific Asia
Liquid Fuel Users Pacific Asia
Solid Fuel Users South Asia
Liquid Fuel Users South Asia
3,6
3,0
2,4
1,8
Acess to Modern
1,2
ation in
Billions
0,6
0,0 Fuel Users
Solid
Base 2005
#6
Improved
No new policies 2030 50% Fuel Subsidy Microfinance @15% Microfinance @15%
2030
only 2030
+ 50% Fuel Subsidy
2030
2030 Energy Goals
● Universal Access to Modern Energy
● Reduction of Energy Intensity by 40%
● Increase of Renewable Share to 30%
Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable
2030 Energy Goals
● Universal Access to Modern Energy
● Double Energy Efficiency Improvement
● Double Renewable Share in Final Energy
Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable
UN General Assembly resolution 65/151
Global Primary Energy
1200
1000
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
800
Microchip
EJ
Commercial
aviation
Nuclear
energy
600
Television
400
200
Steam
engine
Electric
motor
Vacuum
tube
Gasoline
engine
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
0
1850
#9
Biomass
1900
1950
2000
2050
Global Primary Energy
Efficiency – Counterfactual
1200
1000
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
800
Microchip
EJ
Commercial
aviation
Nuclear
energy
600
Television
400
200
Steam
engine
Electric
motor
Vacuum
tube
Gasoline
engine
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
0
1850
#10
Biomass
1900
1950
2000
2050
Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation)
Global Primary Energy
no CCS, no Nuclear
1200
1000
800
Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
Microchip
EJ
Commercial
aviation
Nuclear
energy
600
Television
400
200
Steam
engine
Electric
motor
Vacuum
tube
Gasoline
engine
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
0
1850
#11
Biomass
1900
1950
2000
2050
Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation)
Global Primary Energy
no CCS, no Nuclear
1200
1000
800
Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,
and behavior)
~40% improvement by 2030
~30% renewables by 2030
EJ
Nuclear phase-out (choice)
600
Oil phase-out (necessary)
Renewables
Nuclear
400
Gas
Oil
200
Coal
0
1850
#12
Biomass
1900
1950
2000
2050
Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation)
Global Primary Energy
lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN
1200
1000
800
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,
and behavior)
~40% improvement by 2030
Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
~30% renewables by 2030
EJ
Limited Intermittent REN
600
Oil phase-out (necessary)
Renewables
Nuclear
400
Nat-gas-CCS
Coal-CCS
200
Limited Bioenergy
Bio-CCS – “negative CO2”
Gas
Oil
Coal
0
1850
#13
Biomass
1900
1950
2000
2050
Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation)
18
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
MJ/US$2005
MJ/US$2005
Final Energy Intensities
10
8
10
8
6
6
4
4
2
0
1970
2
GEA-Efficiency
1990
2010
2030
2050
0
1970
GEA-Efficiency
1990
2010
2030
2050
Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation)
Final Energy Transformations
100%
Other Low Carbon
(Nuclear, Fossil-CCS)
80%
60%
Fossils
(Gas, Oil & Coal)
Ot
40%
20%
Fo
RE
Renewables
(Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Bioenergy)
0%
2005 2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
Towards a more Sustainable Future
 Energy is a crucial development goal for
responding to challenges in the 21st century
 Universal access is a pre-condition for
overcoming poverty and feasible if all stakeholders work together.
 Energy transformation will bring multiple cobenefits for health, security, climate change
 Financing requirements are huge but
achievable with right and sustained policies
Global Carbon Emissions
Global CO2 Emissions - (ATR) NoCCS, NoNuc
Global CO2 emissions (GtCO2)
140
120
IPCC Category I
GEA - Efficiency
100
80
reductions of 35-75% by 2050
60
Peak by 2020
40
20
0
almost zero or negative in the long term
-20
1900
#17
1950
2000
2050
2100
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
Towards a more Sustainable Future
 Energy is a crucial development goal for
responding to challenges in the 21st century
 Universal access is a pre-condition for
overcoming poverty and feasible if all stakeholders work together.
 Energy transformation will bring multiple cobenefits for health, security, climate change
 Financing requirements are huge but
achievable with right and sustained policies
Global Energy Investments
Annual
Energy
Investments
Innovation
RD&D
Markets
Formation
Present
Investments
Investment
for SE4All
Investment
GEA Range
[billion US$2005]
[billion US$2005]
[billion US$2005]
[billion US$2005]
[billion US$2005]
2010
2010
2010
2010 - 2030
2010 - 2030
Efficiency
>> 8
~5
300
258 - 3652
121 - 365
Renewables
> 12
~ 20
200
259 - 406
154 - 631
Access
<1
<1
~9
36 - 41
36 - 41
Total
> 50
< 150
1250
1260 - 1680
1120 - 1770
#19