Transcript wdh biloxi aug 7 08 - Southern Section Air & Waste Management

Climate Change/Greenhouse Gas Session
2008 Southern Section
A&WMA Annual Meeting & Technical Conference
Biloxi, Mississippi
August 7, 2008
Danny Herrin, Manager
Climate and Environmental Strategies
Southern Company
Bills analyzed by CRA
for Southern Company
Projected CO2 Price
Recently analyzed proposals
350
Lieberman-Warner
Sanders-Boxer
Lieberman-McCain
Bingaman-Specter
2007$ per ton CO
2
300
250
200
150
Add 7¢/kwh to coal generation cost,
70 cents/gal gasoline
Add 4¢/kwh to coal generation cost,
40 cents/gal gasoline
100
50
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Add 1.5¢/kwh to coal generation cost,
15 cents/gal gasoline
Data source: CRA analysis for Southern Company, April 2008.
L-W Household Cost of Energy
Electricity, Natural Gas and Motor Fuel at the Pump
100%
90%
80%
Percent Change
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2015
2020
2025
Retail Electricity Price
2030
2035
2040
Delivered Natural Gas Price
2045
2050
Motor Fuel Price
Data source: CRA analyses for National Mining Association and Edison Electric Institute, April 2008.
Electricity Generation Must Transform by
2050 to Meet the L-W Caps
Business as Usual Scenario
L-W Scenario
8,000
7,000
7,000
6,000
6,000
5,000
Renewables
4,000
TWh
TWh
5,000
Energy Efficiency/
Demand Destruction
Nuclear
4,000
Renewables
3,000
3,000
Gas/Oil
Coal w/o CCS
Nuclear
Gas/Oil
2,000
2,000
1,000
1,000
Coal w/o CCS
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Coal w/ CCS
-
2010
2015
2020
2025
Data source: CRA analysis for Southern Company, April 2008.
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
U.S. Coal-Fueled Electricity Generation
Lieberman-Warner Would Have Dramatic Impacts
5
Trillion kWh
.
4
3
BAU
S. 2191
2
1
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Data Source: Analysis of S. 2191 by CRA International for Southern Company, March 2008.
2050
EPA Issues ANPR on Climate Change
(F.R. Notice on July 30 - Comments due November 28)
"The ANPR reflects the complexity and the magnitude of the question of whether and
how greenhouse gases could be effectively controlled under the Clean Air Act. I believe
the ANPR demonstrates the Clean Air Act, an outdated law originally enacted to control
regional pollutants that cause direct health effects, is ill-suited for the task of regulating
global greenhouse gases. Based on the analysis to date, pursuing this
course of action would inevitably result in a very complicated, timeconsuming and, likely, convoluted set of regulations. These rules would
largely pre-empt or overlay existing programs that help control greenhouse gas
emissions and would be relatively ineffective at reducing greenhouse
gas concentrations given the potentially damaging effect on jobs and the U.S.
economy.”
EPA Administrator Stephen L. Johnson.
“The Real Cost of Tackling
Climate Change”
• U.S. population is expected to be around 420 million by 2050.
• To meet the 80% below 1990 levels caps by 2050 we would
have to reduce U.S. emissions to ~1 billion metric tons or go
from ~20 tons per capita to ~2.5 tons per capita.
• France and Switzerland -- countries that generate almost all
their electricity from non-fossil fuels are at about 6.5 tons per
capita.
• Replacing every existing coal plant with a natural gas plant
would still put us at twice the 2050 target.
• If everyone drove a Toyota Prius in 2050 the equivalent
transportation target would be overshot by 40%.
Source: “The Real Cost of Tackling Climate Change,” Steven F. Hayward Wall Street Journal April 28, 2008
Technology Development and Implementation
Timeline
Other
Options
NGCC
Renewables
2005
New Nuclear
2010
2015
2020
2025
New
Coal
Capture & Storage
Demo Projects
PC and IGCC
Capture & Storage
Commercial
Retail and Generation Energy Conservation and Efficiency Improvements
Summary
• Legislation likely in next 1-2 years
• EPA regulation a possibility as well
• Legislation/regulation could result in significant shift in
generating technologies with attendant cost increases
• Technology development and deployment is the key to
mitigating these impacts
backup
U.S. Electricity Generation by Region
History and projection, 1990-2030
Projected growth
2008-2030
120%
Southeast (SERC, FRCC: AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, W MO, MS, NC, SC, VA)
US
Change from 1990
100%
80%
34%
West (WECC: AZ, CA, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, OR, UT, WA, WY)
Northeast (CT, DE, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT)
Midwest (ECAR: IN, KY, MI, OH, WV)
25%
34%
60%
22%
11%
40%
20%
0%
1990
1995
2000
History
Projection
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Data Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
2030
Plans to Meet Demand Growth Must Include Multiple
Technology Options
• Coal – both pulverized coal and integrated
gasification combined cycle (IGCC)
• Nuclear power
• Renewable energy
• Natural gas combined cycle
• Efficiency and conservation
World Energy Reserves
Oil, Gas, and Coal Reserves in Joules
67% of World
Fossil Energy
Reserves
are in Coal
Source: Energy Information Administration/ International Reserves Data
DOE Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration
Partnership - (SECARB)
Phase 1 – CO2 source and geologic sinks data collection
Phase 2 – Small CO2 storage pilots
• SECARB: 4 pilots
Coal Seam Project
site selection pending
– Saline reservoir (Plant
Daniel)
Coal Seam Project
near Tuscaloosa, Alabama
– Coal Seam (AL & VA)
– Stacked EOR/saline
(MS)
Stacked Storage Project
Denbury’s Cranfield Oil Field
Phase 3 – Large capacity CO2 storage demo
Mississippi Test Site
Mississippi Power’s Plant Daniel
Nuclear Power
• Southern Company
has signed contracts
for and is pursuing an
Early Site Permit for
two additional units at
Plant Vogtle in
Georgia
Renewables
• Solar power
• Biomass cofiring and conversion
• Wind power