Transcript 1990 - 67% 2006 - 63% - Georgia Climate Change Summit 2008

Future Power Generation in Georgia
Georgia Climate Change Summit
May 6, 2008
Danny Herrin, Manager
Climate and Environmental Strategies
Southern Company
Historical Electricity Generation
United States, 1990-2006
4500
4000
Million MWh .
3500
Other
Natural gas
Petroleum
Coal
Other Renewable
Hydro
Nuclear
3000
2500
2006 - 49%
2000
1500
1990 - 52%
1000
500
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Data Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
Historical Electricity Generation
Georgia, 1990-2006
160
140
Million MWh .
120
Other
Natural gas
Petroleum
Coal
Other Renewable
Hydro
Nuclear
100
2006 - 63%
80
60
1990 - 67%
40
20
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Data Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
Current Electricity Generation
Selected southeastern states, 2006
South Carolina
Georgia
23%
39%
Nuclear
63%
51%
Hydro
Other Renewable
Coal
Florida
Alabama
Alabama
Petroleum
Natural gas
Other
43%
23%
29%
55%
Data source: Energy Information Administration
U.S. Electricity Generation by Region
History and projection, 1990-2030
Projected growth
2008-2030
120%
Southeast (SERC, FRCC: AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, W MO, MS, NC, SC, VA)
Change from m 1990
US
100%
80%
34%
West (WECC: AZ, CA, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, OR, UT, WA, WY)
Northeast (CT, DE, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT)
Midwest (ECAR: IN, KY, MI, OH, WV)
25%
34%
60%
22%
11%
40%
20%
0%
1990
1995
2000
History
Projection
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Data Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
Projected Electricity Generation
Southeast US, EIA Reference Case projection, 2008-2030
1800
1600
Million MWh .
1400
1200
1000
2030 - 57%
800
600
2008 - 47%
Other
Natural gas
Petroleum
Coal
Renewable
Nuclear
400
200
0
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
2028
Data Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2007
Proposed Climate Change Legislation
80% below 1990 levels to ~ 1.2 billion metric tons by 2050
The Real Cost of Tackling Climate Change
• U.S. population is expected to be around 420 million by 2050.
• To meet the 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 we would have to
reduce U.S. emissions to ~1 billion metric tons or go from ~20
tons per capita to ~2.5 tons per capita.
• France and Switzerland that generate almost all their
electricity from non-fossil fuels are at about 6.5 tons per
capita.
• Replacing every existing coal plant with a natural gas plant
would still put us at twice the 2050 target.
• If everyone drove a Toyota Prius in 2050 the equivalent
transportation target would be overshot by 40%.
“The Real Cost of Tackling Climate Change” Steven F. Hayward Wall Street Journal - April 28, 2008
Generating Options
•
•
•
•
•
•
Pulverized coal
Integrated gasification combined cycle
Natural gas combined cycle
Nuclear
Renewable energy
Carbon capture and sequestration
Electric Sector CO2 Reduction Potential
3500
Achieving all targets is very aggressive, but potentially feasible
EIA 2008
3000
U.S. Electric Sector
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons)
EIA 2007
EIA Base Case 2008
(Energy Bill)
2500
2000
Technology
EIA 2008 Reference
Target
Load Growth ~ +1.05%/yr
Load Growth ~ +0.75%/yr
Renewables
55 GWe by 2030
100 GWe by 2030
Nuclear Generation
15 GWe by 2030
64 GWe by 2030
1500
Efficiency
1000
500
0
1990
Advanced Coal
Generation
No Heat Rate Improvement for 1-3% Heat Rate Improvement for
Existing Plants
130-GWe Existing Plants
40% New Plant Efficiency
46% New Plant Efficiency
by 2020–2030
by 2020; 49% in 2030
CCS
1995
PHEV
DER
None
2000
2005
None
Widely Deployed After 2020
2010
< 0.1% of Base Load in 2030
2015
2020
2025
10% of New Light-Duty
Vehicle
Sales by 2017; 33% by 2030
5% of Base Load in 2030
2030
Impact on Future U.S. Electricity Mix
Gas
Oil
Hydro
Solar
Demand with No Policy
w/CCS
w/CCS
Nuclear
Wind
Biomass
Demand Reduction
7
Limited Portfolio
6
Electricity Prices Up 260%
8
Full Portfolio
7
Electricity Prices Up 45%
6
5
5
Biomass
Hydro
4
Nuclear
Wind
Nuclear
3
3
Gas
Gas
2
1
0
2000
4
Coal with CCS
Coal
2010
2020
1
Coal
2030
2040
2050
2000
2010
2
2020
2030
2040
0
2050
Trillion kWh per Year
Trillion kWh per Year
8
Coal
Climate Change Technology Development Timeline
Renewables
2005
New Nuclear
2010
Capture & Storage Demo Projects
2015
2020
IGCC
2025
Capture & Storage Commercial?
Retail and Generation Energy Conservation and Efficiency Improvements
Insights from Recent EPRI Work
• The technical potential exists for the U.S. electricity sector to
significantly reduce its CO2 emissions over the next several
decades.
• No one technology will be a silver bullet – a portfolio of
technologies will be needed.
• Much of the needed technology is not available yet – substantial
R&D, demonstrations are required.
• A low-cost, low-carbon portfolio of electricity technologies can
significantly reduce the costs of climate policy.
Key Findings
EIA Analysis of Lieberman-Warner S.2191
“The electric power sector accounts for the vast majority of the emissions
reductions, with new nuclear, renewable, and fossil plants with CCS
serving as the key compliance technologies in most cases. Many
existing coal plants without CCS are projected to be retired early
because retrofitting with CCS technology is generally impractical.”
“If new nuclear, renewable, and fossil plants with CCS are not developed
and deployed in a timeframe consistent with the emissions reduction
requirements, covered entities are projected to turn to increased
natural gas use to offset reductions in coal generation, resulting in
markedly higher delivered prices of natural gas.”
Seeking Solutions - Some of Southern
Company’s Notable Initiatives
• Developed, with KBR and DOE, TRIGTM advanced coal gasification technology
• Leading a consortium that is researching:
• CO2 deep saline injection demonstration at Mississippi Power’s Plant Daniel
• CO2 injection into unmineable coal seams in Alabama
• Capacity of an Alabama oil field for CO2 storage
• Researching biomass co-firing
• Evaluating conversion of selected coal plants to 100 percent biomass
• Planting trees – 45 million, and counting
• Winner of 2008 Excellence in ENERGY STAR® Promotion Award for
Georgia Power’s compact fluorescent light bulb program
• Evaluating significant new nuclear and IGCC generation
Southern Company’s Climate Change Policy
Climate change is a challenging issue for our world and
our nation. Southern Company is committed to a
leadership role in finding solutions that make
technological, environmental and economic sense. The
focus of this effort must be on developing and deploying
technologies that reduce greenhouse gases while
making sure that electricity remains reliable and
affordable. Southern Company believes that this is the
most responsible approach to meeting the needs of the
environment and its customers and shareholders.