Transcript 7-Vidalenc-2030-2050 ADEME vision_ les houches

ADEME Energy
and Climate Visions
2030-2050
Eric Vidalenc – Economics and Foresight Department
ADEME - French Agency for Environment and Energy
Management
Objective and context
• Objective of this morning session :
• Focus on methods used to frame scenarios
(less on emphasizing the outcome of a given model or approach)
Example: ADEME Visions 2030 2050
• Context : work launched by the President of ADEME in 2012
(ADEME CEO F.Loos before the DNTE – National debate leaded in
2013)
• A collaborative exercise (a small coordination team and about sixty
experts involved)
• Visions…and not scenarios (roadmap with political steps…) built on
our core skills : renewable energies and energy efficiency.
• 4 tools/models used for quantification issues :
• Technical : MEDPRO
• Electrical system: EOD
• Agriculture and land use : Mosut
• Macroeconomic evaluation : 3ME
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Visions 2030 2050 :A kind of tryptic
• A technical
description (2012)
• A social translation
in the daily life of
households (2014)
• A macroeconomic
evaluation (2013)
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Two Visions
 Same scope…
• Energy consumption: buildings, transportation (but
international air and maritime bunkers), agriculture and
industry
• Renewable energy production
 …yet distinct perspectives
• 2030: current trends « + » a significant increase in energy
efficiency and renewables : exploratory , « what if », foresight,
positive method
• 2050: the 75%-decrease-target is set, then achievement
conditions are identified : « how » to reach it, backcasting,
normative method
• At last, there is an issue to identifie a possible gap between the
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two perspectives
Methodology
 Technical scenarios (model : MEDPRO, MOSUT, EOD)
1. Inventory of renewable resources and energy efficiency potential
with sectoral experts
2. Definition of a set of possibilities, with respect to technical and
economic criteria (ROI identified)
3. Identification of values and consistency checking
4. Energy consumption and renewable energy production projections
 Economic conditions and macroeconomic impacts
(model: THREEME)
1. Identification of necessary price-signals
2. Simulation of the macroeconomic impact
 Social translation
1. Identification of type of households to describe
2. Quantification of all the daily actions in terms of energy and CO25
Summary
 Distinct perspectives
• 2030: an ambitious yet realistic vision
• 2050: a 75%-decrease (compared with 1990) in GHG emissions
 Focus: energy (consumption and production) and GHG emissions
 Key-messages
• 2030: energy efficiency and the share of renewables could increase
significantly
• 2050: the fourfold decrease in GHG emissions is achievable with efficiency,
renwables and some change in our habits and behaviour
 Remarks
• Sources of figures
 2010: INSEE, CCTN, SOeS, CEREN
 2030 - 2050: ADEME estimates (but exogeneous variables)
• Reference years: 2010 for energy; 1990 for GHG emissions
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Main results
Energy
GHG emissions
• -40% by 2030
• -75% by 2050
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Exogeneous variables vs ADEME’s assumptions
 Exogeneous variables
Macro
2010
2030
2050
References
Population (m)
62.9
68.5
74.1
INSEE
Number of person/household (*)
2.3
2.17
2.05
INSEE
Brent (US$2010/bbl)
78
135
230
IEA
GDP (%/year)
New homes (m/year)
Sectoral
1.8%
0.310
Energy-intensive industrial output (t/year)
Share of nuclear power
0.35
CAS
0.3
depends on the product
77%
48%
DGEC
DGEC
18%-48%
(*) henceforth « hh »
 ADEME’s assumptions
• Unit consumption: energy efficiency
• Demand: organizational efficiency, non-disturbing changes in ways
of living (ex: miles/year/cap, number of TV sets/hh, etc.)
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2030 - Residential
 Urban planning: share of multi-family new buildings increases
(from 42% in 2010 to 50%)
 Thermal uses
• Energy-efficient retrofitting: 0.5 m homes/year
• Comfort: unchanged, if not improved (e.g. air-conditioning)
• Equipment
 Heat-pumps (20% of space heating useful energy consumption),
 Thermodynamic water-heaters, solar water heaters (5% of hot water useful
energy consumption)
 Electrical appliances:
• Stock of conventional appliances (fridge, washing-machine, TV,etc.) as
efficient in average in 2030 as today’s most efficient appliances
• Complementary electricity consumption (cell phone, IT’s, etc.) is constant
(1,000kWh/year/household)
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2030 – Residential - Results
Per-use consumption
Type of delivered energy
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2030 – Commercial
and public services buildings
 Organisation: floor area/employee is constant
 Thermal uses
• Building stock thermal performance and equipments are significantly
improved
• Comfort is increased (50% of employee work in air-conditioned buildings)
 Business-related electricity consumption
• 10% decrease per employee by 2030 compared with 2010
 Result: a 16% decrease in final energy consumption
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2030 – Transportation
 Paradigm: constant individual mobility and modal split
 Freight: a 20% increase in transported mass (tkm)
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2030 – Transportation
 Passenger transportation: emergence of mobility services
(account for 10% of intra-city passenger flows )
 Results in terms of sales and stock :
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2030 – Transportation - Results
Final energy consumption
Type of energy
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2030 – Industry
 Assumption: industrial recovery
• Energy-intensive products: pre-crisis (physical) output quantity is
recovered, if not slighlty increased
• Other industries: grow roughly according to GDP growth
 Energy-efficiency: 20% in average (less than 1%/year)
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2030 – Industry - Results
 Recycling (materials as well as heat losses) taken into
account
 Result: a 10% decrease
in final energy consomption
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2030 – Food, forest and agriculture
 No-regret changes of habits
• A 2/3 decrease in food wastages
• Current trends are protracted (e.g. decrease in meat consumption)
 Energy efficiency: a 25% decrease in energy consumption of
agriculture buildings, 20% decrease use of synthetic nitrogen
fertilizers
 Land management : land sealing pace is two-fold decreased, + 0,2
Mha of forest in 2030
 Results : - 11% in livestock related impacts (CH4, N2O), and an low
decrease in energy consumption
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2030 – Energy production (1)
 Resources:
• Solid biomass and methanization are both significantly increased
• Land use competition is not exacerbated (3Mtoe of biofuels, compare to
2,4)
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 Renewable power
2030 – Energy production (2)
Focus on electrical system
• Wind: On-shore (34 GW) and off-shore (12 GW)
• PV: 33 GW
(very close to RTE New mix in terms of installed capacity but with 20%
less on demand)
Remark: the load curve hourly matches power generation
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2030 – Energy production - Results (3)
 Result
• Share of renewables: 35%
• Share of renewable power: 46%
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Evaluation of 2030 Vision
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 Differences with the 2030 scenario
2050 – An overview
• The 75% decrease in GHG emissions is set as a target
• Changes in ways of living allowed when convergence of interests
 Buildings: energy efficient stock + reinforced densification (stop
of urban sprawling after 2030, and 50/50 between house
 Transportation: mobility services develop (30% of urban flows) +
GasVeh (of which 55% of biomethane) and electricity, 15% less of
mobility/pers/year
 Food and agriculture: French diet heads towards FAO’s
recommendations
 Tertiary : 20% decrease in surface area per employee
 Industry: 2010-2030 trends are protracted
 Results:
• Final energy consumption is two-fold decreased
• 70% of renewables (final energy)
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2050 – Food
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2050 –
Transportation
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2050 – Transportation
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2050 – Energy consumption
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2050 – Renewables
N.B. concerning power generation, the share of renewable power
ranges from 47% to 77%, according to the assumed share of nuclear
power
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Macro Economic evaluation
Tools : 3ME, a multisectoral
macroeconomic model (new
Keynesian)
ADEME – OFCE - TNO
Method : Define a baseline reference scenario, consider
the technical assumptions
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• Signal-price /
Carbon tax
• Energy balance
• 325€/tCO2 in 2050
• Total : 750€/tep in 2050
(must be compared to the current
implicit tax level : 243€t/CO2 on
gasoline)
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Investments
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• GDP
• Jobs
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Concluding remarks
 Beyond energy and GHG
• NOx, SO2,PM2.5 and COVNM three-fold decreased by 2030
• Likely (yet not quantified) reduction in other externatities :
• Transportation: noise, road casualties, congestion, health (cycling)
• Buildings: thermal comfort
• Food: meat-overconsumption-related deseases
 Economics
• An additional 300€/tCO2 price-signal is required by 2050 (in ADEME scenario,
not in absolute terms)
• Macroeconomic impacts:
• Recessionary: increase in energy prices (loss of competitiveness) and decrease
in conventional energy production
• Expansionary: decrease in fossil energy imports, increase in new business
activities (renewables, high-quality building retrofitting)
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• THREEME-based macroeconomic simulations show that the global impact on
both GDP and employment is positive by 2050
Social translation
Just released
• A description of the daily
life and behaviour of 8
families in different
context (age, children or
not, localization,
income…)
• 4 pages of narrative
description and an energy
balance (kWh and CO2) for
each household
compatible with the global
ADEME vision
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Attempt to conclude :
Science for energy scenarios ?
• Scenario is a way (with differents tools) to look
forward
• And if science is :
• Rigorous and checkable method investigation
• Open to criticism and discussions
• Probably Yes
• But if science is :
• Reproductible …
• Maybe not
• Because between two periods : we can see huge changes in
knowledge, technologies (V2G, PtG…), values, belief, learning
cost curve…
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