Transcript CWHvh Presentation March

SFFES- Ecological Sensitivity Workshop
CWHvh
(5% of District)
CWHvh – Calvin Ck, Nootka Is
CWHvh – Calvin Ck, Nootka Is. - Current BEC
CWHvh – Bookend climate scenarios
CWHvh – Calvin Ck, Nootka Is.– PCM-B1 2050
CWHvh– PCM-B1 2050
CDFmm temp
CWHvh(+)
precip
CWHvh – Calvin Ck, Nootka Is.– HAD-A1FI 2050
CWHvh– HAD-A1F1 2050
CDFmm(+)
temp
CWHmm2(++)
Precip
CWHvh – HAD-A1F1 2050
Summer heat:
moisture index
At the CWHvm
level
CONSIDER CWHvh STAND / ECOSYSTEMS – In a
changing climate
CWHvh STAND / ECOSYSTEMS- 2050(PCM & HAD)
SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:
Species
Vuln.
Class
Opp.
Class
Reasoning (e.g. drought stress/
Hw
Low
Nilminor
No issues
Trees will grow better but also so will
mistletoe
Some flooding at very low elevations
(ocean rising).
More wind and severe weather =
more decay – top breakage etc.
Vulnerability Classes
Low – Stands will suffer minor losses due to climate
change.
Mod – likely will suffer significant but manageable losses
and or secondary risks (fire etc.)
High – likely will suffer major losses or incur high
secondary risks, but catastrophic losses unlikely.
Very High – likelihood for catastrophic losses are high.
Opportunity Classes
Nil – No opportunity to enhance growth.
Minor – Minor growth enhancement likely.
Significant – significant growth enhancement
likely.
CWHvh STAND / ECOSYSTEMS- 2050(PCM & HAD)
SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:
Species
Vuln. Class Opp.
Class
Reasoning (e.g. drought stress/
Cw
Low
Minor to
Signif
Increase in growth
No real problems
Fd
High
Nil
It already is sensitive
Ss
Low (locally
moderate in
very
specific
spots)
Minor
No change
Flooding could be evident here – on alluvial
areas – affected by estuary type conditions –
Color-challenged ecosystem? Species?
Ba
Low
Minor
May improve – more nutrients – cycling from
decomp? / growing season moisture not an
issue.
Still decay issues (with increased winds etc)
CWHvh Ecologically Suitable Regen – Now and Future
MESIC SITE DISCUSSION :
1.
2.
3.
What are the vulnerabilities and why? (drought / insects /
disease?)
What are the opportunities – where / when?
What are the outstanding questions?
% of orig
area
Ba
71,069
7
6
7, 35
b
b
CWHvh1
94
7
6
7,35
b
b
CWHvh1
39
7
6
7,35
b
b
CWHvh1- warm
26
MESIC SITES
Present
PCM-B1
2050
HAD-A1F1
2050
Green
Yellow
Orange
CWHvh1 (ha)
CWHvh hot
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
Bg
Bl
Bp
Cw
Fd
Hm
Hw
Lw
Pl
Pw
Py
Se
Ss
Sx
Yc
Act
Dr
Ep
Mb
30
Footnotes in cells - see list
Novel climate envelope - suggested species
Preliminary Sensitivity Interpretation
CWHvh1 most of this subzone will remain in a similar climate envelope under the least change scenario, portions will be warmer and some hotter unlike any
climates present on the coast today. Under the greater change scenario almost equal areas fall within the same, warmer and hotter climates.
Footnotes
6
7
35
b
restricted to nutrient-very-poor sites
restricted to nutrient-medium sites
risk of weevil damage
limited in productivity, reliability and/or feasibility
Qg
Ra
PCM-B1
2050
HAD-A1F1
2050
CWHvh1
94
7
6
7,35
b
b
CWHvh1
39
7
6
7,35
b
b
CWHvh1- warm
26
CWHvh
Vulnerabilities & Opportunities
CWHvh hot Regeneration
30
Green
Yellow
Orange
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
Footnotes in cells - see list
Mesic Sites
Novel climate envelope - suggested species
Preliminary Sensitivity Interpretation
CWHvh1 most of this subzone will remain in a similar climate envelope under the least change scenario, portions will be warmer and some hotter unlike any
climates present on the coast today. Under the greater change scenario almost equal areas fall within the same, warmer and hotter climates.
Footnotes
6
7
35
b
restricted to nutrient-very-poor sites
restricted to nutrient-medium sites
risk of weevil damage
limited in productivity, reliability and/or feasibility
Added Comments:
•
Coast redwood – not clear if it would be suited – think it likely won’t be an
option. This would be a last resort – no species that are cutting it.
•
Perhaps should do some trials here just to see in case we can use it.
•
Perhaps Port Orford Cedar – planted in 58 – EP 571 in Uclulet.
•
•
•
No major changes on regen side – same species that we use right now.
Pw – probably too wet – foliar problems.
Ba – possibly on warmer slopes - but may have problems with aphid – need
to look into it a bit more?
May want to mix in more stands with higher densities – more species
options moving forward.
Yc – right now is hanging in but not very vigorous. May be useful to mix into
species trials.
•
•
PCM-B1
2050
HAD-A1F1
2050
CWHvh1
94
7
6
7,35
b
b
CWHvh1
39
7
6
7,35
b
b
CWHvh1- warm
26
CWHvh
Vulnerabilities & Opportunities
CWHvh hot Regeneration
30
Green
Yellow
Orange
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
Footnotes in cells - see list
Mesic Sites
Novel climate envelope - suggested species
Preliminary Sensitivity Interpretation
CWHvh1 most of this subzone will remain in a similar climate envelope under the least change scenario, portions will be warmer and some hotter unlike any
climates present on the coast today. Under the greater change scenario almost equal areas fall within the same, warmer and hotter climates.
Footnotes
6
7
35
b
restricted to nutrient-very-poor sites
restricted to nutrient-medium sites
risk of weevil damage
limited in productivity, reliability and/or feasibility
Added Comments:
•
Ss – Weevil concerns – increasing hazard (although new weevil-resistant
phenotypes show lots of promise). – so may be an option and may grow
well.
•
•
2080 discussion – likely trends in 2050 will continue.
Bogs to lakes – frogs to fish
PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE
CWHvh – Calvin Ck, Nootka Is. – PCM-B1 2080
Dominant
Subzone Climate
% of the
CWHvh
CWHvh1
78%
CWHvh-warm
15%
PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE
CWHvh – Calvin Ck, Nootka Is. – HAD-A1F1 2080
Dominant
Subzone Climate
% of the
CWHvh
CWHvh-hot
85%
CWHvh1/vh(+) /
vh-warm
27%
PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE
CWHvh – Calvin Ck, Nootka Is. – HAD-A1F1 2080
ANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABLES
mean annual temperature
mean warmest month temperature
mean coldest month temperature
extreme minimum temperature
Continentality (MWMT - MCMT)
frost free period
number of frost free days
degree-days above 18 degrees C
degree-days below 0 degrees C
mean annual precipitation
mean annual summer precipitation
precipitation as snow
Summer heat:moisture index
Annual heat:moisture index
Now
8.5
14.7
3.3
(13.7)
11.4
203.0
310.6
12.9
24.0
3,659.9
773.7
172.5
19.2
5.1
2080
11.6
18.0
6.0
(8.6)
11.9
350.1
355.5
84.9
1.0
4,242.4
681.7
68.0
26.7
5.1
change
3.1
3.3
2.7
5.1
4.7%
72.5%
14.4%
72.0
-23.0
15.9%
-11.9%
-60.6%
38.5%
0.6%
Dominant
Subzone Climate
% of the
CWHvh
CWHvh-hot
85%
CWHvh1/vh(+) /
vh-warm
27%