Transcript Roadmap 2050

EU Roadmap for moving
to a competitive low
carbon economy in 2050
2 July 2012
Artur Runge-Metzger
Director, DG CLIMA
Climate
Action
Outline
• Climate policy challenges
• Where does the EU stand now?
• Roadmap 2050
• Global analysis
• EU analysis
• Next steps
Climate
Action
Limiting climate change – a global
challenge
 Science requires that global emissions are cut by
50% by 2050 compared to 1990
 EU objective of reducing greenhouse gas
emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990,
in the context of necessary reductions by
developed countries
 Need for a low carbon 2050 strategy providing the
framework for the longer term action
 Need to fix intermediary stages towards reaching
the 2050 objective
 Need to keep developments under review on a
regular basis
3
Climate
Action
Climate change threatening future
economic growth
2005 : US$ 228 billion
4
Climate
Action
Climate Action until 2020
5
Climate
Action
Where does the EU stand now?
150.0
140.0
130.0
120.0
GHG emissions
Population
Real GDP
110.0
Primary energy
• EU emissions
reduced by 15.5%
1990 -2010
• EU GDP grew 40%
• EU on track
towards 20%
emission reduction
by 2020
100.0
90.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
80.0
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Climate
Action
However, majority of Member States will
not meet national non-ETS target in 2020
2020 projections
2020 national target
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
HU UK NL SE PT FR DE FI ES EU DK CZ AT PO BG IT IE BE EE EL CY LU RO LV SI SK LT MT
Current projections show the EU would meet its 2020 target. However, for 13
Member States, the existing policies would not be sufficient to reach their national
target.
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Climate
Action
Roadmap 2050:
Global analysis
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Climate
Action
2050 Roadmap
The first extensive global and EU analysis on
how the long term target can be reached:
• identifies cost-effective pathway, with
intermediate milestones,
• identifies key technologies guiding R&D,
• identifies investments needs and benefits,
• identifies opportunities and trade-offs,
• guides EU, national and regional policies,
• gives direction to private sector and private
households for long term investments.
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Climate
Action
The impact of climate action on the
global temperature increase by 2100
Global emissions pathway in the next 40 years will
determine likely warming by the end of the century
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Climate
Action
Only global climate action reduces
emissions in all parts of the world
EU objective: 80 to 95% reductions
largely through domestic measures:
EU
100%
 around -80% internal reductions in 2050
compared to 1990
80%
 similar efforts
20%
60%
40%
Developed Countries:
0%
1990
Developing Countries:
2000
500%
80%
400%
60%
300%
40%
200%
20%
100%
2000
2010
Baseline
2020
2030
Global action
Climate
Action
2030
2040
2050
2040
2050
Global action
Developing Countries
Developed Countries
100%
0%
1990
2020
Baseline
 -5% compared to 1990
 Equivalent to
- 80%
compared to
business as
usual
 no cheap
offsets by
2050
2010
2040
2050
0%
1990
2000
2010
Baseline
2020
2030
Global action
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Global climate action leads to converging
emissions per capita
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Climate
Action
Global climate action reduces
fossil fuel prices
Oil price development
150
$ per barrel
125
100
75
50
25
0
2010
Baseline
2020
2030
Fragmented action
2040
2050
Global Action
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Climate
Action
Global forestry and agriculture must be
part of the solution
•
•
•
•
Need to ensure food security to feed 9 billion people
EU objective of eliminating net deforestation around 2030
Efforts to reduce agricultural emissions, or rather limit their increase
Increased biomass use for energy as a result of global action on
climate change
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Climate
Action
Global agricultural productivity matters
for future food prices
1. No yield improvement
2. Base case: Only 0.5% yield improvement for crops
3. Base case + also 0.5% yield improvement for livestock
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Climate
Action
Roadmap 2050:
EU analysis
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Climate
Action
A cost-efficient pathway towards 2050
80% domestic
reduction in 2050 is
feasible
100%
100%
Power Sector
80%
 with currently available
80%
Current policy
technologies,
 with behavioural
Residential & Tertiary
change only induced
60%
through prices
 If all economic sectors
Industry
contribute to a varying
40%
degree & pace.
Efficient pathway:
-25% in 2020
-40% in 2030
-60% in 2040
60%
40%
Transport
20%
20%
Non CO2 Agriculture
Non CO2 Other Sectors
0%
1990
0%
2050
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Climate
Action
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Roadmap 2050:
Energy efficiency will be key
• Energy efficiency is the single most important
contribution by 2050
• Also essential in the short term
• Climate and energy package: 20% GHG reduction, 20%
renewables and 20% energy efficiency improvement
• Current policies only result in 10% energy efficiency
improvement
• Roadmap confirms key role of efficiency up to 2020 and
beyond
• Efforts towards 20% efficiency target would deliver 25%
GHG reduction
• ETS is one instrument to deliver additional efficiency
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Climate
Action
Roadmap 2050:
Investing in innovation …
GDP and GHG decoupling
220
200
180
1990 = 100%
Additional domestic
investment: € 270 billion
annually during 2010-2050,
equivalent to 1.5% of GDP
(Total investment – 19% of
GDP in 2009), of which
• built environment (buildings
and appliances): € 75 billion
• transport (vehicles and
infrastructure):
€ 150 billion
• power (electricity generation,
grid): € 30 billion
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
1990
2000
GDP
Climate
Action
2010
2020
GHG emissions
2030
Roadmap 2050:
… means saving energy, reducing energy
bill and raising air quality & health
• Fuel savings: € 175 to 320
billion on average annually
during 2010-2050
• Primary energy consumption
about 30% below 2005
without negatively affecting
energy services
• Making EU economy more
energy secure:
GDP and GHG decoupling
220
200
1990 = 100%
180
160
140
120
100
• Halves imports of oil and gas
compared to today
• Saving € 400 billion of EU oil and gas
import bill in 2050, equivalent to >
3% of today’s GDP
80
60
40
1990
2000
GDP
2010
2020
2030
GHG emissions
Climate
Action
• Air quality and health benefits:
€ 27 billion in 2030 and € 88
billion in 2050
Roadmap 2050:
Creating new jobs in the EU
• Where will new jobs come from?
• Short term: e.g. in renovation of buildings, production of
insulation materials, renewables industry
• Potential net job creation up to 1.5 million by 2020
• Use auctioning revenues from EU emissions trading
system and tax revenues for reduction of labour costs
and increase in investments and R&D
• Long term job prospects depend on favourable economic
framework conditions, e.g. expenditure on research &
technology development, innovation, entrepreneurship,
new skills, investment
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Climate
Action
Roadmap 2050: Making the EU fit for the
global low-carbon race
• All competitors develop their own low carbon
strategies, e.g.
• US:
• 1 million electric cars on road by 2015
• 80% clean energy by 2035
• China:
• Two-year investment plan: +0.8% GDP on innovation,
restructuring, energy conservation, emissions reductions
and ecological improvement
• 12th 5-year plan (2011-2015): reducing emissions per
unit of GDP by 17%, accelerating R&D and use of lowcarbon technologies, low-carbon pilot projects
Climate
Action
EU’s policy challenges (1)
• Ensure the achievement of 20% energy efficiency
target by 2020, and in this context use the role of the
emissions trading system
• Give clarity for long term investments, especially in
ETS sectors
• Define 2020 - 2030 policy framework
• Upward review of 1.74% linear reduction to be
considered to achieve -80% GHG emissions by 2050
• Measures to protect vulnerable industries against carbon
leakage in the case of fragmented action
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Climate
Action
EU’s policy challenges (2)
• Implement Strategic Energy Technology (SET) Plan
(€ 50 billion from 2014-2020)
• Develop innovative financing instruments to use
limited public finance to leverage private sector
investments in the next EU budget, e.g. in cohesion
policy
• Use CAP to contribute to further emission reductions
and increased absorption of natural sinks, taking into
account the increased demand for agricultural and
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forestry products including for bio-energy
Climate
Action
Next steps
• Negotiation of EU Multi-annual Financial
Framework and detailed legislation for individual
spending programmes.
• Further Commission analysis of cost efficient and
equitable mix of individual policy instruments
and implications for individual Member States.
• Member States to develop long-term national
and regional low emission development
strategies.
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Climate
Action
For further information:
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/
policies/brief/eu/index_en.htm
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Climate
Action