Transcript CWHmm1 Presentation March

SFFES- Ecological Sensitivity Workshop
CWHmm1
(5% of District)
CWHmm1 – C-main to Memekay
CWHmm1 – C-main to Memekay - Current BEC
CWHmm1- Bookend Climate Scenarios
CWHmm1 – C-main to Memekay – PCM-B1 2050
CWHmm1– PCM-B1 2050
CWHxm
temp
CWHmm
Precip
So warmer
version of
CWHmm
CWHmm1 – C-main to Memekay – HAD-A1FI 2050
CWHmm1– HAD-A1F1 2050
CDFmm
temp
CWHmm2
Precip
CWHmm1 – HAD-A1F1 2050
Summer heat:
moisture
index
At the CWHxm
level
CONSIDER CWHmm1 STAND / ECOSYSTEMS – In a
changing climate
CWHmm1 STAND / ECOSYSTEMS- 2050(PCM & HAD)
SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:
Species
Vuln.
Class
Opp.
Class
Reasoning (e.g. drought stress/
Ba
Mod
Nil
Under PCM OK, Had, summer
drought could be an issue.
Needs early growing season
moisture usually from snowmelt
GGD up – BWA could be an issue, is
in Mem.
Hw
Low
Vulnerability Classes
Low – Stands will suffer minor losses due to climate
change.
Mod – likely will suffer significant but manageable losses
and or secondary risks (fire etc.)
High – likely will suffer major losses or incur high
secondary risks, but catastrophic losses unlikely.
Very High – likelihood for catastrophic losses are high.
Ok, PCM remains suited. Had,
summer drought an issue.
Hemlock looper? Could be triggered
by heat – couple of years after hot
Opportunity Classes
Nil – No opportunity to enhance growth.
Minor – Minor growth enhancement likely.
Significant – significant growth enhancement
likely.
CWHmm1 STAND / ECOSYSTEMS- 2050(PCM & HAD)
SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:
Species
Sens.
Class
Opp.
Class
Reasoning (e.g. drought stress/
Ba
Mod
Nil
Under PCM OK, Had, summer
drought could be an issue.
Needs early growing season
moisture usually from snowmelt
GGD up – BWA could be an issue, is
in Mem.
Hw
Low
Mod to
Low
Ok, PCM remains suited. Had,
summer drought an issue.
Hemlock looper? Could be triggered
by heat – couple of years after hot –
PhD.
Fd
Low
Had minor
Fd potentially the best adapted for
the Had scenarios.
Frost could be an issue at regen.
CWHmm1 STAND / ECOSYSTEMS- 2050(PCM & HAD)
SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:
Species
Sens. Class
Opp.
Class
Reasoning (e.g. drought stress/
Cw
Vary by site
Had = mod to
height
Nil
Ok on receiving sites – Had DS
Yc
Mod
Nil
Near upper end – similar to SE
Alaska? Ground needs to freeze.
CWHmm1Ecologically Suitable Regen – Now and Future
MESIC SITE DISCUSSION :
1.
2.
3.
MESIC SITES
Present
CWHmm1 (ha)
PCM-B1
2050
HADA1F1
2050
Green
Yellow
Orange
What are the vulnerabilities and why? (drought / insects /
disease?)
What are the opportunities – where / when?
What are the outstanding questions?
% of orig
area
Ba
Bg
Bl
Bp
Cw
Fd
Hm
Hw
Lw
Pl
Pw
Py
Se
Ss
Sx
Yc
Dr
Ep
Mb
Qg
Ra
70518
10
b
7,a
b
CWHmm1
87
10
b
7,a
b
CWHdm
12
24
31
b
7,42 a 18 a
b
b
CWHdm
38
24
31
b
7,42 a 18 a
b
b
CWHxm1
57
24
31
7,42 a 18 a
b
b
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
Footnotes in cells - see list
Possible species to add in?
Preliminary Sensitivity Interpretation
CWHmm1 With both scenarios Fd remains suited, Cw will become less suited, more so at lower portions of the variant. Hw will remain
a candidate following the caveats of north facing and in wetter portions of the unit.
Footnotes
7
10
18
24
31
42
a
b
Act
restricted to nutrient-medium sites
restricted to northerly aspects
restricted to eastern portion of biogeoclimatic unit in region
suitable (as a major species) in wetter portion of BEC unit
risk of white pine blister rust
restricted to fresh soil moisture regimes
productive, reliable, and feasible regeneration option
limited in productivity, reliability and/or feasibility
2050
CWHdm
12
24
31
b
HADA1F1
2050
CWHdm
38
24
31
b
Green
Yellow
Orange
24
31
CWHxm1
57
CWHmm1
Regeneration
Vulnerabilities
&
Opportunities
Primary
Footnotes in cells - see list
Secondary
Tertiary
Mesic Sites
Possible species to add in?
Preliminary Sensitivity Interpretation
CWHmm1 With both scenarios Fd remains suited, Cw will become less suited, more so at lower portions of the variant. Hw will remain
a candidate following the caveats of north facing and in wetter portions of the unit.
Footnotes
7
10
18
24
31
42
a
b
restricted to nutrient-medium sites
restricted to northerly aspects
restricted to eastern portion of biogeoclimatic unit in region
suitable (as a major species) in wetter portion of BEC unit
risk of white pine blister rust
restricted to fresh soil moisture regimes
productive, reliable, and feasible regeneration option
limited in productivity, reliability and/or feasibility
Added Comments:
PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE
CWHmm1 – C-main to Memekay – PCM-B1 2080
Dominant
Subzone Climate
% of the
CWHmm1
CWHdm
88%
CWHmm1/xm1
13%
PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE
CWHmm1 – C-main to Memekay – HAD-A1F1 2080
CWHxm1
Dominant
Subzone Climate
% of the
CWHmm1
CWHxm1
42%
CWHxm-hot
36%
CWHdm-hot
12%
PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE
CWHmm1 – C-main to Memekay – HAD-A1F1 2080
ANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABLES
mean annual temperature
mean warmest month temperature
mean coldest month temperature
extreme minimum temperature
Continentality (MWMT - MCMT)
frost free period
number of frost free days
degree-days above 18 degrees C
degree-days below 0 degrees C
mean annual precipitation
mean annual summer precipitation
precipitation as snow
Summer heat:moisture index
Annual heat:moisture index
Now
7.5
15.8
0.5
(19.9)
15.3
154.4
257.1
25.3
93.2
2,036.9
379.0
241.6
43.9
8.8
CWHxm1
Dominant
Subzone Climate
% of the
CWHmm1
CWHxm1
42%
CWHxm-hot
36%
CWHdm-hot
12%
2080
11.4
21.0
3.2
(13.7)
17.8
244.7
329.9
245.0
26.0
2,488.7
313.8
92.4
70.3
8.8
change
3.9
5.2
2.7
6.2
16.5%
58.5%
28.3%
219.7
-67.1
22.2%
-17.2%
-61.7%
60.3%
-0.1%