Transcript Slide 1

Demographic change and human mobility in
the Arab region
Roberto Pitea
Regional Research Officer for Africa and the Middle East
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Cairo
Cairo, 20 – 21 September 2010
1
Overview
1)
Introduction
2)
Current human mobility trends
3)
Future demographic trends
4)
Future urbanization trends
5)
Key challenges and opportunities
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Current mobility trends
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•
•
•
The Arab region is both origin, destination and transit
region for different categories of migrants and mobile
populations
The UN estimates a total of 28.6 million migrants in the
Arab region in 2010 (UNPD, 2009). Over half of them (15.1
million) are living in countries of the GCC.
Forced migration contributes to human mobility in the
Arab region, which hosts 4.7 million Palestinian refugees
and an estimated 2 million Iraqi refugees (IOM, 2010).
However, labour migration remains the major driver of
mobility in the region.
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Current mobility trends
•
Income and development differentials are the main
drivers behind the mobility of workers in the region:
–
The average GDP per capita in Arab countries is 8,200 USD,
ranging from almost 75,000 USD in Qatar to 2,090 USD in Yemen
(UNDP, 2009).
–
The average GDP per capita in South Asia (major region of origin
of migrants in the Arab region) is 2,905 USD
–
Average GDP per capita in Europe (major region of destination for
Arab migrants) is 24,775 USD
–
The unemployment rate in the region has reached 14.2 per cent
in 2009, among the highest in the world (global average is 6%).
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Current mobility trends
Arab migrants according to regions of destination.
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
Total Migrants from Mashreq
and Yemen
Total Migrants from Maghreb
Arab countries
Europe
Americas
Oceania
Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: DRC (2007)
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Current mobility trends
Remittance trends: outflows and inflows
Source: World Bank in IOM (2010)
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Demographic Scenario
Arab Population in 2010 : 336 million
Arab Population in 2050 : 556 million
Youth (0 -24) in 2010 : 178 million (53%)
Youth (15-24) in 2010 : 67 million (20%)
Youth (0 -24) in 2050 : 200 million (36%)
Youth (15-24) in 2050 : 80 million (14%)
Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (Population Division). World Population Prospects: The 2006
Revision
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Dempographic scenario
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•
•
•
•
On average, an additional 325,000 people will enter
the 15-24 age group every year between now and
2050;
But, most Arab countries will see sharp drops in the
growth rate of younger groups;
Doubling young labour forces (Iraq, OPT and
Yemen);
Faster transition to an aging labour force (Algeria,
Lebanon, and Tunisia);
Destination countries will face labour force
reductions (except Libya, Oman and Saudi Arabia).
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Demographic Scenario
Youth (15-24 years old) as a percentage of total population
Demographic window of opportunity
22.0%
20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
North Africa
Mashreq
Gulf countries
More Developed regions
Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (Population Division). World Population Prospects:
The 2006 Revision
2050
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Demographic scenario
Total Dependency ratios* in 2010
27
48
56
UAE
OECD
90
Average
West
Bank
and
Gaza
Total Dependency ratios in 2050
48
Qatar
KSA
52
60
Average Tunisia
71
OECD
* Number of children below 15 and people older than 65 for every 100 adults
Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (Population Division). World Population Prospects: The
2006 Revision
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Demographic scenario
Dependency ratios* in 2010
22
24
85
2
23
6
UAE
OECD
OPT
Dependency ratios in 2050
29
27
26
19
33
45
Tunisia
OECD
KSA
Child DR:Number of children below 15 for every 100 adults
Old Age DR: Number of people over 65 for every 100 adults
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Key implications
•
High proportion of youth (youth bulge) :
–
–
•
Ensuring education for all means falling quality
of education and/or higher government
spending;
Labour markets cannot generate enough job
opportunities to absorb unemployed workers
and new entrants.
Decline in (child) dependency ratios :
–
Demographic window of opportunity can
accelerate development outcomes and
processes
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Key challenges
Public expenditure on education in select Arab countries
30.0
Total public
expenditure on
education (as a
% of GDP)
25.0
20.0
15.0
Total public
expenditure on
education (as a
% of total
government
expenditure)
10.0
5.0
0.0
Morocco
Oma n
UAE
Dji bouti
Kuwa i t
Source: IOM (2010) based on UNESCO (2006)
Leba non
Ma uri tani a
Tuni s i a
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Key challenges
Youth unemployment by level of education and gender.
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Maghreb
Mashreq
Source: IOM (2010) based on ILO (2007)
GCC
Primary
Education Male
Primary
Education Female
Secondary
Education Male
Secondary
Education Female
Tertiary
Education Male
Tertiary
Education Female
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Urbanization Scenario
Arab Population in 2010 : 336 million
Arab Population in 2050 : 556 million
Urban population in 2050 : 413 million (74%)
Urban population in 2010 : 191 million (57%)
Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (Population Division). World Population Prospects: The 2006
Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, http://esa.un.org/
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Urbanization scenario
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In 1950, only 25 % of the total population in
Arab countries lived in cities
•
This percentage has increased to 57 % in
2010 and is estimated to reach 74% in 2050
•
The fastest increase in urban population
between 2010 – 2050 will take place in less
developed Arab countries
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Urbanization Scenario
(urban population, in ml and as percentage of total population)
Yemen
2010
2050
Million 7.8
34.9
32 %
%
60%
Sudan
2050
2010
32.0
18.7
74%
45 %
Source: UN DESA –Population Division (2007)
Egypt
2050
2010
75.6
34.0
62%
43%
Syria
2050
2010
25.8
11.7
74%
55%
Morocco
2050
2010
32.0
18.4
75%
57%
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Key implications
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Demographic and environmental factors
compound to create complex socioeconomic vulnerabilities
–
•
Declining investment/Loss of productivity of
agricultural sector
Rapid increase in urban population:
–
–
–
Strain on resources and services
Rapid growth of informal urban settlements
(slum areas)
Increase demand for natural resources (food,
fuel, construction material…)
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Key challenges and opportunities
Current push factors
• Unemployment and underemployment
especially of youth
• Conflict and instability
Current pull factors
• Income and development differentials
• Education and employment
opportunities
• Security
Future additional push factors
Socio-economic
•Accelerating urbanization
•Demographic transition
Environmental*
• Intensification of natural disasters
• Increased warming and drought affects
agricultural production and access to
water
• Rising sea levels makes coastal areas
uninhabitable
• Competition over natural resources may
lead to conflict and in turn displacement
Future additional pull factors
Socio-economic
•Demographic transition (ageing) in
countries of destination
Environmental
• Access to sustainable forms of
livelihoods
*Adapted from IOM (2009) Migration, Environment
and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence
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Key challenges and opportunities
• The Arab region will undergo significant
demographic changes in the next decades
• These changes will have an impact on socioeconomic development and, in turn, human
mobility.
•
Environmental factors will compound to these
changes, resulting in more complex mobility
dynamics.
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Thank you
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