Transcript Slide 1

ENGINEERING SKILLS DEVELOPMENT:
Developing South Africa’s Future Engineering Managers
The 5th Annual Engineering Manager Conference
27 – 30 June 2011
Johannesburg
Presented by:
Hannelie Nel
THE WORLD IN 2050
“South Africa does not exist in isolation. We
operate in a global environment that provides both
opportunities and constraints to what we do as a
nation. We rely, to a significant extent, on the rest
of the world for markets, capital and technology.” 1
Minister Trevor Manual
National Strategic Planning 2010
The World in 2050 2
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The largest E7 emerging economies are likely to be bigger than the current G7
economies by 2020.2
China’s economy is projected to grow to around 94% - 143% of the size of the US
economy by 2050. India’s economy is projected to grow to between 58% - 100% of
the size of the US economy. 2
The shift in global economic power will steadily increase competition from emerging
market internationals.
G7 economies: US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy and Canada.
E7 economies: China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey.
•
Long-term economic growth is driven by:
• Growth in the labour force of working age.
• Increase in human capital (average education level) and skills development.
• Growth in physical capital eg infrastructure.
• Total productivity growth, driven by technological progress and use of technology
and processes.
2 The World in 2050, PWC, January 2011
2 Based on purchasing power parity PPP adjusting price differences across countries
The World in 2050 2
PPP 2009
Rank
Country
GDP at PPP
PPP 2050
2009 UJ$bn
Rank
GDP at PPP
Country
2009 UJ$bn
South Africa
2009:
1
US
14256
1
China
59475
2
China
8888
2
India
43180
3
Japan
4138
3
US
37876
4
India
3752
4
Brazil
9762
GDP (PPP) as a
% of world total
5
Germany
2984
5
Japan
7664
= 0.70%
6
Russia
2687
6
Russia
7559
7
UK
2257
7
Mexico
6682
8
France
2172
8
Indonesia
6205
9
Brazil
2020
9
Germany
5707
10
Italy
1922
10
UK
5628
11
Mexico
1540
11
France
5344
12
Spain
1496
12
Turkey
5298
13
South Korea
1324
13
Nigeria
4530
14
Canada
1280
14
Vietnam
3939
15
Turkey
1040
15
Italy
3798
16
Indonesia
967
16
Canada
3322
17
Australia
858
17
South Korea
3258
18
Saudia Arabia
595
18
Spain
3195
19
Argentina
586
19
Saudi Arabia
3039
20
South Africa
508
20
Argentina
2549
2 The World in 2050, PWC, January 2011: World Bank Estimates for 2009; PWC estimates for 2050
The World in 2050 2
Average annual
Country
Average annual
Average annual
population
real growth in GDP
growth
GDP per capital growth
Brazil
4.4%
0.6%
3.3%
Russia
4.0%
-0.7%
3.2%
India
8.1%
0.8%
5.3%
China
5.9%
0.1%
4.6%
South Africa
5.0%
0.3%
3.6%
All countries, except India, are expected to see a decline in the
prime working age group of 15 – 59; and an increase in the
population over 60.
2 The World in 2050, PWC, January 2011
The World in 2050 3 - Opportunities for Emerging
Markets
PWC, 9 Annual Global CEO
th
Survey
% CEO Respondents
3 Hawksworth, J. The World in 2050, PWC, 2006
The World in 2050 3 - Opportunities for Emerging
Markets
Main actions that CEOs are taking or planning to take in emerging markets
PWC, 9th Annual Global CEO
Survey
% CEO Respondents
3 Hawksworth, J. The World in 2050, PWC, 2006
The World in 2050 3 - Opportunities for Emerging
Markets
Companies
Potential Winners
Potential Losers
•Retailers
•Mass market manufacturers, both
hi and low tech
•Leading global brand owners
•Media companies
•Niche high value added
manufacturers
•Health care providers
•Education providers
•Financial services
•Energy and utilities companies
3 Hawksworth, J. The World in 2050, PWC, 2006
•Financial services who are
vulnerable in their own markets
•Companies that over commit to
key emerging markets without the
right local partners and business
strategies
THE CURRENT SITUATION WITH REGARDS TO
SKILLS DEVELOPMENT IN ENGINEERING
The Current Situation – Global Engineering Indicators 4
•Students enrolled in Engineering Education 2002 – 2005
•China has 1.3 million engineering graduates per year
4 UNESCO Report on Engineering, 2010
The Current Situation – Global Engineering Indicators 5
5 Heckel, R.W. A Global Study of Engineering Undergraduate and Doctoral Degrees
Awarded in Ninety-One Countries, 2008.
The Current Situation – Global Engineering Indicators 4
Country
Engineering
Graduation Rate
(%)
20054
Engineering
Graduation Rate
(%)
20064
First Engineering
Degrees per
million
population5
Germany
16.8%
16.3%
259
UK
8.0%
8.2%
322
Australia
7.9%
7.9%
527
USA
7.4%
7.2%
254
Brazil
4.9%
--
136
South Africa
7.5%
8.3%
130
Engineering Graduates as a % of All Graduates
4 UNESCO Report on Engineering, 2010
5 Heckel, R.W. A Global Study of Engineering Undergraduate and Doctoral Degrees
Awarded in Ninety-One Countries, 2008.
The Current Situation – SA Engineering Indicators 2010 6
Professional
Engineer
Professional
Engineering
Technologist
Professional
Certificated
Engineer
Professional
Engineering
Technician
Total
Registrations
14 639
(1.1%)
3 491
(7.6%)
1 036
(4.9%)
3 422
(81.3%)
New
registrations
412
290
48
259
Transfer from
Candidates
204
83
5
72
Cancellations
281
47
20
105
De-registrations
88
12
6
26
( ) depicts registration growth rate in % from 2009 - 2010
6 ECSA Annual Report 2010
The Current Situation – SA Engineering Indicators 4
Year
Engineering as a
% of national
article output
% of articles
in
engineering
by women
% of articles
in
engineering
by authors
<30 years
% of articles
in
engineering
by authors ≥
50 years
1990-1992
5%
6%
10%
26%
1993-1995
6%
7%
9%
29%
1996-1998
6%
8%
9%
36%
1999-2001
6%
10%
8%
35%
2002-2004
7%
11%
5%
39%
4 UNESCO Report on Engineering, 2010
The Current Situation – SA Engineering Indicators 2010 6
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•
•
51 BEng / BSc(Eng) programmes in 8 universities.
95 BTech programmes in 10 universities of technology or comprehensive institutions.
92 National diploma programmes in 10 universities of technology or comprehensive
institutions.
•
•
•
A total of 388 606 enrolments for degrees and diplomas from 1998 – 2008.
A total of 53 342 graduates for degrees and diplomas from 1998 – 2008.
An average pass rate of 13.7% compared to an international average pass rate of
25%.
A total of 20 819 engineering degrees.
A total of 32 523 engineering technology diplomas.
•
•
6 ECSA Annual Report 2010
FUTURE OUTCOMES IN ENGINEERING:
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
The Great Age of Engineering 4
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The age of great engineering, the Industrial Revolution from the 18th century into the
20th century, enjoyed seemingly unlimited sources of power, coal, oil and gas; and a
world environment of apparently boundless water supply and materials.
•
Now we face issues of global challenge:
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•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Sustainable social and economic development;
Globalisation, energy use and transportation;
Affordable and accessible health care;
Education;
Clean drinking water;
Man-made and natural disaster mitigation;
Environmental protection and natural resource management;
Equitable access to infrastructure;
Poverty reduction.
4 UNESCO Report on Engineering, 2010
Waves of Innovation 4
6th wave
5th wave
Petrochemicals
Electronics
Aviation
Space
Iron
Water power
Mechanisation
Textiles
Commerce
Steam power
Railroad
Steel
Cotton
Electricity
Chemicals
Internal
combustion
engine
4th wave
Sustainability
Radical
resource
productivity
Whole system
design
Biomimicry
Green chemistry
Industrial
ecology
Renewable
energy
Green
nanotechnology
Digital networks
Biotechnology
Software
Information
Technology
3rd wave
2nd wave
1st wave
© The Natural Edge Project 2004
1785
1845
4 UNESCO Report on Engineering, 2010
1900
1950
1990
2020
The Millennium Development Goals – WEHAB Agenda 4
•
The Millennium Development Goals requires engineering to contribute to
developing appropriate solutions to a wide range of global issues, including:
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•
•
•
•
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Water and sanitation
Energy
Health
Agriculture productivity
Biodiversity and ecosystem management
“The critical roles of engineering in addressing the large-scale pressing challenges
facing our societies worldwide are widely recognized. Such challenges include
access to affordable health care; tackling the coupled issues of energy, transportation
and climate change; and providing more equitable access to information and natural
resource management.”
4 UNESCO Report on Engineering, 2010
The Impact of Globalisation on Engineering
•
India will become less dependent on outsourcing and more on manufacturing,
building on its strong engineering skills and higher levels of education.[4]
•
The Internet and the connectivity it provides has generated new markets for products
and services. It has also enabled affordable and accessible educated labour. [7]
•
The range and opportunities offered by alternative careers has caused a decline in
the interest of young people in engineering and science. [8]
•
The level of innovation and competitiveness of a country is directly related to the
number of its engineering graduates. [4]
•
A decline in population growth coupled with an ageing workforce has a direct impact
on a country’s economic development. [4]
•
“The Renaissance Engineer” : an engineer with a strong technical foundation and a
broader non-traditional skill set. Engineers with broader world-views. [9]
UNDERSTANDING THE DEMAND FOR ENGINEERING
SKILLS DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA:
TOWARDS GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS AND
INNOVATION
Internationally - the Twelve Pillars of Competitiveness 10
Basic requirements
•Institutions
•Infrastructure
•Macroeconomic development
•Health and primary education
Efficiency enhancers
•Higher education and training
•Goods market efficiency
•Labour market efficiency
•Financial market development
•Technology readiness
•Market size
Innovation and sophistication
•Institutions
•Infrastructure
•Macroeconomic development
•Health and primary education
Factor Driven
Economies
Efficiency Driven
Economies
Innovation Driven
Economies
10 Global Competitiveness Report 2010 – 2011 © 2010 World Economic Forum www3.weforum.org
South Africa - Global Competitiveness Index 10
Stage of Development: Efficiency driven economy
Rank: 54 out of 139 countries
Average score: 4.3 on a 7 rating scale
1
Factor Driven
Transition
1-2
2
Efficiency
Driven
Transition
2-3
Pillar 5: Higher education and training
Pillar 6: Goods market efficiency
Pillar 7: Labour market efficiency
Pillar 8: Financial market development
Pillar 9: Technological readiness
Pillar 10: Market size
10 Global Competitiveness Report 2010 – 2011 © 2010 World Economic Forum www3.weforum.org
3
Innovation
Driven
South Africa - Global Competitiveness Index 10
10 Global Competitiveness Report 2010 – 2011 © 2010 World Economic Forum www3.weforum.org
South Africa – 2009 Sectoral Value-Add as a % of GDP 11
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Non-Manufacturing
Services
3%
19%
15%
63%
Strengths of South Africa
Weaknesses of South Africa
•Highest ranked country in Sub-Saharan Africa
• Labour market efficiency
•Large economy
•Inflexible hiring and firing practices
•Intellectual property protection and property rights
•Lack of flexibility in wage determination by
•Accountability of private institutions
companies
•Goods market efficiency
•Low university enrolment rate of 15%
•Financial market development
•Improvements required in infrastructure
•Business sophistication
•Poor security and business cost of crime and violence
•Scientific research institutions
•Poor health of the workforce
•Strong collaboration between universities and
industry
11 The World Bank, Economist Intelligence Unit
South Africa – % Change in GDP per Sector 12
Sectors
2008
2010
Primary Sector
•Agriculture
•Mining
-1.2
10.9
-5.4
2.5
2.3
2.6
Secondary Sector
•Manufacturing
•Electricity, gas and water
•Construction
3.4
2.7
1.0
9.3
6.9
8.4
2.6
2.3
Tertiary Sector
•Commerce
•Transport and communication
•Financial and other services
4.7
1.1
3.9
7.9
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.5
Non-agricultural sector
3.7
3.8
Total
3.7
3.9
12 SA Reserve Bank, Annual Economic Report 2010, www.resbank.co.za
South Africa - Global Competitiveness Index 10
10 Global Competitiveness Report 2010 – 2011 © 2010 World Economic Forum www3.weforum.org
South Africa – Towards an Innovation Driven Economy 10
Key Sectors and Focus for Future Development Towards Innovation:
•
Infrastructure Development and Maintenance
• Quality of overall structure 56 / 139
• Quality of electricity supply 94 / 139
• Fixed telephone lines 98 / 139
• Mobile telephone subscriptions 73 / 139
•
Health and Primary Education
• Business impact of HIV / AIDS 138 / 139
• Quality of primary education 155 / 139
• Primary education enrolment rate 109 / 139
10 Global Competitiveness Report 2010 – 2011 © 2010 World Economic Forum www3.weforum.org
South Africa – Towards an Innovation Driven Economy 10
Key Sectors and Focus for Future Development Towards Innovation:
•
Higher Education and Training
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Secondary education enrolment rate 41 / 139
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Tertiary education enrolment rate 99 / 139
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Quality of the educational system 130 / 139
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Quality of math and science education 137 / 139
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Local availability of research and training services 49 / 139
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Staff training 26 / 139
•
Quality of management schools 21 / 139
10 Global Competitiveness Report 2010 – 2011 © 2010 World Economic Forum www3.weforum.org
South Africa – Towards an Innovation Driven Economy 10
Key Sectors and Focus for Future Development Towards Innovation:
•
Selected Competitiveness Indicators
• Business costs of crime and violence 137 / 139
• Extent of market dominance 43 / 139
• Hiring and firing practices 135 / 139
• Reliance on professional management 19 / 135
• Brain drain 62 / 139
• Female participation in labour force 64 / 139
• Availability of latest technologies 51 / 139
• Firm-level technology absorption 35 / 139
• Technology transfer 37 / 139
• Local supplier quality 22 / 139
• Production process sophistication 39 / 139
10 Global Competitiveness Report 2010 – 2011 © 2010 World Economic Forum www3.weforum.org
BRIDGING THE SKILLS GAP:
WHAT IS NEEDED IN SOUTH AFRICA?
What is needed in South Africa?
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Higher quality and enrolment in primary, secondary and tertiary education; particularly maths and
science.
•
Higher graduation rates of engineers and scientists.
•
Sustainable construction, improved infrastructure and continuous electricity supply.
•
Improved healthcare and security.
•
Improved labour relations and flexible hiring policies.
•
A focus on women education and inclusion in labour force.
•
Significant public sector investment in research institutions and R&D.
•
Significant private sector investment in R&D and collaboration between industry and academia.
Characteristics of The Renaissance Engineer 3
Individuals
Potential Winners
Potential Losers
•Global star performers
•Low- and medium skilled workers
in tradable sectors.
•Providers of high value
personal services without
cultural barriers to migrant
labour
•Low and medium-skilled workers
in non-tradable sectors.
•Individuals with strong crosscultural skills
•Experience of working across a
range of E7 economies
•Specialised project component
work and contract employment
English remains the dominant business language
3 Hawksworth, J. The World in 2050, PWC, 2006
What is needed for Engineering? 10
“Engineering as a human endeavour is also facing numerous additional challenges of its own,
including:
•
Attracting and retaining broader cross-sections of our youth, particularly women;
•
Strengthening the educational enterprise;
•
Forging more effective interdisciplinary alliances with the national and social sciences and the
arts;
•
Enhancing our focus on innovation, entrepreneurship and job creation; and
•
Promoting increased public awareness and support for the engineering enterprise.”
10 UNESCO Report: Engineering: Issues, Challenges and Opportunities for Development, 2010
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION.
Reference List
1.
2.
3.
Manual, T. Green Paper on National Strategic Planning. www.info.gov.za Accessed 12 June 2011.
PricewaterhouseCoopers, The World in 2050. www.pwc.com. Accessed 11 June 2011.
Hawksworth, J. PricewaterhouseCoopers, The World in 2050: Opportunities for emerging markets
www.pwc.com Accessed 11 June 2011.
4. UNESCO Report Engineering: Issues, Challenges and Opportunities for Development.
www.unesco.com ?? Accessed March 2011.
5. Heckel, R.W. A Global Study of Engineering Undergraduate and Doctoral Degrees Awarded in
Ninety-One Countries, 2008. ??
6. ECSA Annual Report 2010. www.ecsa.co.za. Accessed 12 June 2011.
7. IEEE Engineering Management Review (2009), Vol.37, no.1 pp. 38 – 39.
8. Schmitz, B. http://creo.ptc.com/2011/04/28/global-shortage-of-engineers-presents-challenges-toindustry
9. www.designnews.com/article/11425-Teaching_the_new_engineering_skills.php
10. Global Competitiveness Report 2010 – 2011 © 2010 World Economic Forum www3.weforum.org
11. The World Bank, Economist Intelligence Unit
12. SA Reserve Bank, Annual Economic Report 2010, www.resbank.co.za