Transcript Mark Florman - Chartered Institute of Housing

Mark Florman
JUNE 2013
The World
The World in 1991
46%
The World in 2013
GINI index
22%
Source: World Bank
Shifting Demographics
Old vs. Young
Old - Indebted
35% of WG
Young – No Debt
65% of WG
2013 – Where are all the <30s?
Source: US Census Bureau
World Urbanisation
2012: 50%
Source: Global Trends 2030, National Intelligence Council
2030: 60%
World Population Growth
18%
13%
7 BILLION
70%
15%
2012
18%
9.3 BILLION
67%
2050
Least Developed Countries
Less Developed Countries
More Developed Countries
Source: United Nations Population Fund
Global Middle Class Consumption
2000
2050
• 65% Old World
• 20% Old World
Demographic Facts
 Japan & Germany:
World’s Oldest Populations
 European Elderly:
58m more by 2050
 European workforce ratio:
1/2 approaches
Resources
Land
Water
Minerals
How
Springboard Economy
Springboard Society
Migration
Old World
New World
Shortages
Surpluses
STEM
STEM
Young
Young
Europe
Unprecedented growth in productivity required from investing in
Physical Capital
Knowledge Capital
Human Capital
New Flat World
 Connected &
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communicating
Constant fight over
resources
Working old & poor
Instability & anger
Online education
Sustainable energy
Springboard Economy
 Schools: STEM &
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business
Angel & Venture
Innovation ecosystems
Productivity
Apprenticeships
Springboard Society
 No one left behind
 Business responsibility
 Social impact industry
 Back to work
 One million jobs
 Slavery (CSJ)
UK Statistics
16%
53 MILLION 45%
39%
2013
30%
36%
63 MILLION
34%
2060
Public Sector net debt
as a % of GDP
0-35 years old
36-65 years old
66+ years old
Source: HM Treasury
Source: Office of National Statistics
Current State of the UK
 Living beyond our means
 Overtaxed
 Mortgaged the future
 Inward Facing
 Short termist
 Lack of innovation
 Need growth of 3% p.a.
Long Term Solution
 Promote innovation
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investments
Environment for flexible
talent development
Encourage
entrepreneurship
Shape disruptive
technologies
Foster ecosystems
Short Term Spending Review
 HMT will make £11.5bn overall
savings from Government
departments year 2015/16.
 NHS budget to help fund
investment in social care.
 Investments in long-term
capital infrastructure.
 Will announce sums allocated
to Local Enterprise
Partnerships.
UK Housing
Facts on UK Housing
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1.8 million households on waiting lists
60,000 households made homeless
per year
4.6 million homes needed in next
20 years
2,000 housing associations
Demographics and new household
formation increases pressure
Income-housing cost ratio worsening
Impact of universal credit on credit
quality of HA’s
Homes & Communities
 Communities that support
each other
 Innovation in work/home
environments
 Socially inclusive societies
 Early intervention to
support families
Invest in Communities
 Construction & housing key
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catalyst to UK GDP
Private investment via social
impact investing
Tax relief for social enterprises
Support new social enterprises
Private equity & venture capital
Static communities
Innovation in Elderly & Social
Care
Invest in Markets
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Measure and value social impact... ERR
Form a development service company to
aggregate development plans
Aggregation of assets, income streams
and risks
Migrate £50bn of bank finance towards
bond market (currently £7.5bn)
Co-op housing – borrow against
unfettered assets
Regulator to consider treatment of grants
(as assets)
Thank you