Transcript Module 1. An introduction to current and future challenges Module 2

PART I
AGRICULTURE, FOOD SECURITY
AND ECOSYSTEMS:
CURRENT AND FUTURE
CHALLENGES
MODULE 1
AN INTRODUCTION TO CURRENT AND
FUTURE CHALLENGES
Module objectives and structure
Objectives
This module, intended as a brief introduction, summarises the multiple challenges that
agriculture, and the ecosystems it depends on, are facing and will face in the next decades.
Structure
We give brief introductions to the multiple challenges and illustrate them through information
that has been produced at global level. Illustrations are linked to files with a larger view,
expanding on the topics covered, or providing access to full text documents, click on them to
access the resources.
Caveat
The information provided in this module normally covers estimations at global levels which may
be less refined than information at national level, but they are intended as a way to exemplify
the general global direction and the challenges that agriculture and farmers are facing all over
the world.
Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges
An increasing population
•
The world population may be 9.3 and 10.1 billion in 2050 and 2100, respectively
•
In some regions population will decline and in others it will increase drastically
•
More efficient food production will be needed to cover population demands
According to World population prospects, the 2010 revision, the
world’s population will reach 9.3 billion by 2050 and 10.1 billion by
2100, or 35% and 47% larger than in 2010, respectively.
Changes between 2010 and 2050 will vary between sub-regions
and countries. Populations in some countries are expected to
increase, e.g. Western Asia (+70%), Middle Africa (+120%), SubSaharan Africa (+129%), Eastern Africa (+141%), and Western
Africa (+144%); while in others populations are expect to decline,
e.g. Eastern Europe (-13%) and Eastern Asia (-4%).
Estimated and projected world
population (billions) according to
different variants, 1950–2100.
Source: World population
prospects, the 2010 revision.
Population Division, DESA, UN.
The most populated sub-regions by 2050 are expected to be South
Central Asia (2.5 billion), Southern Asia (2.4 billion), Sub-Saharan
Africa (2 billion) and Eastern Asia (1.5 billion).
More efficient food production and distribution will be required to
cover the needs of larger populations in these regions.
Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges
Changes in consumer habits
•
Rapid income growth, urbanization and population growth have increased the
demand for animal products
•
It is likely that demand will continue to increase
2000
2050
Central and West
Asia and North
Africa
20
33
East and South Asia
and the Pacific
28
51
Latin America and
the Caribbean
58
77
North America and
Europe
83
89
Sub-Saharan Africa
11
22
Meat consumption in 2000 and
projection for 2050 (kg/person/
year).
Source: Adapted from Rosegrant
and Thornton, 2008.
Rapid income growth, urbanization and population growth have
increased the demand for meat and other animal products in
many developing countries. Despite the complex factors that
control demand, projections suggest a continued growth:
•
A 2008 study from IFPRI projected increases in global per
capita demand for meat by 2050 (see table).
•
The OECD and FAO project that between 2009 and 2018
dairy demand will continue to grow. In developing countries
per capita demand is expected to increase at an annual rate
of 1.2%. Overall production growth is projected at 1.7% per
year in the same period, particularly in developing countries.
See also The state of food and agriculture 2009, livestock in the
balance.
Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges
Changes in cultivated land
•
Global cultivated land per person has gradually declined from 0.44 ha to less
than 0.25 ha over the last 50 years
•
The demand for agriculture production by 2050 is expected to be 70% more than
in 2009. Increases should come from intensification on existing land
According to FAO’s State of Land and Water (SOLAW) report, in the
last 50 years:
•
the world’s agricultural production has grown between 2.5 and 3
times;
•
more than 40% of the increase in food production came from the
doubling of irrigated areas;
•
global cultivated land per person has gradually declined from
0.44 ha to less than 0.25 ha.
The decline is due to many factors, such as population increase,
abandonment of agriculture, urbanization, land degradation, etc.
Evolution of land under irrigated
and rainfed cropping (1961–2008).
Source: State of Land and Water
(SOLAW), FAO.
By 2050 the population is likely to demand 70% more food
compared to 2009. The increased production should come primarily
from intensification on existing cultivated land.
Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges
Increased water use
•
Agriculture uses about 70% of global fresh water withdrawals
•
Water withdrawals for agriculture have tripled over the last 50 years
•
In some basins abstraction has approached the renewability threshold
According to The world water development report 3, in the year
2000 total global annual freshwater use was about 4,000 km3 with
agriculture withdrawing about 70% (some countries up to 90%).
Water withdrawals per person per
country in 2000. Source WWDR-3.
Annual water withdrawals per person ranged from 20 m3 in
Uganda to more than 5,000 m3 in Turkmenistan, with a world
average of 600 m3. Water withdrawals were highest in arid and
semi-arid areas, where irrigation is most needed for agricultural
production.
Water withdrawals for agriculture have tripled over the last 50
years due to the rapid increase in irrigation.
Abstraction of water has approached or exceeded the threshold of
renewability of water resources in many river basins.
Water resources and withdrawals in
2000. Source: WWDR-3.
Groundwater withdrawals rose fivefold during the 20th century,
leading to a rapid drawdown of aquifers in some areas.
Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges
Land and water quality degradation
•
Achievements in agricultural production in some cases have been accompanied
by poor land and water management
•
Poor land and water management results in degradation of their quality, impacts
on ecosystems and economic losses
Global achievements in agricultural production have been
accompanied in some cases by poor management of cultivated land
and water resources, leading to the deterioration of the ecosystems
of which they are part.
Poor land and water management has contributed to loss of soil
structure, soil nutrients, organic matter and therefore soil fertility;
reduced water storage and supply; increased surface and
groundwater pollution (from excessive use of pesticides and
nutrients); the modification of ecosystems and their services; and
salinization of soils in irrigated drylands.
Saline soils in agricultural fields.
Photo: T. Friedrich.
Rehabilitating degraded ecosystems is costly and sometimes
impossible. In a scenario where higher production is required, there
is a need to monitor practices and avoid losses of land, water and
ecosystem services.
Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges
Agricultural pollution and GHG emissions
•
Inappropriate agriculture intensification has led to pollution of natural resources in
About
3.9 billion may be living under severe water stress by 2030
many countries
•
Agriculture also makes a large contribution to emissions of greenhouse gases
Agricultural pollution, a form of land degradation, is increasing as
the result of inappropriate agriculture intensification practices in
many countries.
The overuse of fertilizers and pesticides, the erosion of soils, and
the production of large amounts of animal waste that is not recycled
or reused is increasing the pollution of soils, water and agricultural
produce. This results in serious concerns for ecosystems and
human health.
In addition, agriculture emits significant amounts of greenhouse
gases (GHG), e.g. CO2 from burning residues, N2O from fertilizers
and CH4 from rice and livestock production.
Discarded pesticide drums in
Yeliman, Mali.
Module 4 will expand on problems associated with land degradation
and agricultural pollution in particular.
Photo: FAO/Ivo Balderi.
Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges
Ecosystem services decline
•
People benefit from resources and processes supplied by ecosystems,
collectively called ecosystem services
•
Pressure on natural resources affect ecosystems and their services
People benefit from fundamental resources and processes supplied
by ecosystems. These are known as ecosystem services (ES), which
for ease of study, have been classified into provisioning services;
regulating services; supporting services; and cultural services. See
more…
Humans are part of many ecosystems, but our activities are damaging
them at a faster rate that they can recover. If ecosystems are
disrupted, functions start to decline and the production of many
fundamental services for life are impaired.
Bee with red pollen on its legs.
Pollination is an essential
ecosystem service.
Scientists and economists are trying to assign values to ES, in order
to understand how much does this decline can cost, but beyond their
monetary value, they are fundamental for life.
An example of a national ecosystem assessment can be found here.
Photo: Kathy K. Garvey.
Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges
Competition for water resources
•
•
•
About 3.9 billion people may experience severe water stress by 2030
About 3.9 billion may be living under severe water stress by 2030
Competition for water exists at all levels
Competition between agriculture and non agriculture sectors will increase
About 3.9 billion people (over one billion more than in 2008) may be
living under severe water stress by 2030, according to the OECD.
Competition for water exists at all levels and is expected to increase
with higher water stress and demand for water in almost all
countries. Competition can include allocation between:
Water stress, 2030.
Source: Environmental Outlook to
2030, OECD.
•
Agriculture and cities, in particular with increasing urbanization;
•
Electricity generation, crop production and fisheries;
•
Livestock, food crops, non-food crops and fisheries;
•
Storage of water for drought emergencies, which will reduce
flows for all other sectors;
•
Different countries depending on water from the same river
basin.
Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges
Competition for land: Food or energy?
•
Farmers in some countries are increasingly using their land for biofuel production
•
Authorities will face the challenge of assessing trade-offs between choosing food
or bioenergy production
The risks that climate change pose on food security are particularly
pressing at a time of high oil prices. High fuel prices make
agricultural production more expensive by raising the cost of
fertilizers, irrigation and transportation. In some countries, the need
for efficient energy supplies has resulted in governments biofuel
subsidies and agriculture-based energy production has surged.
In some areas farmers have switched to producing crops for
biodiesel. As new linkages and trade-offs are created between the
energy and agriculture sector, energy and food prices are becoming
increasingly intertwined.
Fruit of Jatropha curcas, a
biofuel source.
Photo: A. Lubari.
Authorities will face the challenge of guiding communities’
production according to their needs. They will need to plan carefully,
assessing the long term risks or benefits of choosing between food
and energy production.
Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges
Climate variability and change
•
The world is warming at a much faster rate than agro-ecosystems and humans
About
3.9 billion may be living under severe water stress by 2030
can naturally adapt to
•
The large majority of farmers will be forced to change their production methods
It is apparent that the world is warming up at a much
faster rate than natural systems, agro-ecosystems and
humans can naturally adapt to.
An increasingly warmer world and a higher incidence of
weather events will have a large impact on agriculture
and food security.
Projections of global surface warming.
Source: Climate Change 2007, Synthesis
Report (Syr-3), IPPC.
Changes in
agricultural yields.
Source: World
Development
Report 2010,The
World Bank.
While some regions are likely to benefit from changes,
the large majority of farmers around the world will suffer
the impacts of climate change: the yields of current
cropping systems in many places are likely to fall and
they will need to look for ways to adapt their production
to new conditions.
Modules 2 and 3 expand on climate variability and
change and their impacts for agricultural production.
Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges
Resources
References used in this module and further reading
This list contains the references used in this module. You can access the full text of some of
these references through this information package or through their respective websites, by
clicking on references, hyperlinks or images. In the case of material for which we cannot
include the full text due to special copyrights, we provide a link to its abstract in the Internet.
Institutions dealing with the issues covered in the module
In this list you will find resources to identify national and international institutions that might hold
information on the topics covered through out this information package.
Glossary, acronyms and abbreviations
In this glossary you can find the most common terms as used in the context of climate change.
In addition the FAOTERM portal contains agricultural terms in different languages. Acronyms of
institutions and abbreviations used throughout the package are included here.
Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges
Please select one of the following to continue:
Part I - Agriculture, food security and ecosystems: current and future challenges
Module 1. An introduction to current and future challenges
Module 2. Climate variability and climate change
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Module 4. Agriculture, environment and health
Part II - Addressing challenges
Module 5. C-RESAP/climate-smart agriculture: technical considerations and
examples of production systems
Module 6. C-RESAP/climate-smart agriculture: supporting tools and policies
About the information package
How to use
Credits
Contact us
How to cite the information package
C. Licona Manzur and Rhodri P. Thomas (2011). Climate resilient and environmentally sound agriculture
or “climate-smart” agriculture: An information package for government authorities. Institute of Agricultural
Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations.