Transcript Item A2: A Preliminary Analysis on International Emissions

A Preliminary Analysis on
Modeling Results Relevant to China from the
International Emissions Scenarios Database
Chen Ying ([email protected])
Research Centre for Sustainable Development (RCSD),
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)
Beijing BASIC Workshop on Feb.18, 2006
Outline
 Overview of Emissions Scenarios Database
 Analysis on Reference Scenarios
 Analysis on Stabilization Scenarios
 Conclusions: Gaps to be bridged
I. Overview of Emission Scenarios
Database
 Structure
 Sources: 256
 Scenarios: 734
 Regions:
 Variables:
 Results: 1990-2100,
every 10 years
93668 records in total
China in the Countries Groupings
 China
 CPA= China+HK and other 5 countries
 ASIAP= CPA(7)+SAS(8)+PAS(19),
34 countries and regions
China
CPA
ASIAP
China is 90%95% of CPA,
50%-60% of
ASIAP
Models related to China
 13 models developed since 1998
 China (3): AIM/EMF16, RICE99, SGM99,
 CPA(2): DNE21/98, IIASA/WEC98
 ASIAP(8): 6 for SRES and 2 for pSRES and pSRES2001
AIM, ASF, IMAGE, MARIA, MESSAGE, MiniCAM, LDNE and WorldSCAN
 Categories of models
 Top-down: CGE such as RICE99, SGM99 and WorldSCAN
 Bottom-up: energy optimization model such as DNE21/98, LDNE and
MESSAGE
 Integrated Assessment: combining top-down and bottom-up modules, such
as AIM/EMF16, MiniCAM
 Scenarios developed:
 85 reference + 111 policy
II. Analysis on Reference Scenarios
 85 reference scenarios related to China
China: 3 developed with 3 models
CPA: 5 developed with 2 models
ASIAP: 40 of SRES standardized and 37 of
pSRES without standardization
Reference Scenarios for China
CO2 emissions (GTC/yr)
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
AIM/EMF16
RICE99
SGM99
CO2 emissions (GTC/yr)
Reference Scenarios for CPA and
China/0.95
6.0
5.0
4.0
A2-5.2
SGM99
B
3.0
2.0
A1
1.0
0.0
RICE99&
AIM/EMF16
A3-0.6
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
DNE21/98
IIASA/WEC98-A1
IIASA/WEC98-A2
IIASA/WEC98-A3
IIASA/WEC98-B
SGM99
RICE99
AIM/EMF16
CO2 Emissions (GTC/yr)
Reference Scenarios for ASIAP
(6 Markers from SRES)
12.0
A2-10.74
10.0
8.0
6.0
CPA/0.5
4.0
2.0
B1-0.93
0.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
A1
A2
B1
A1T
A1FI
B2
What makes the differences?
CPA
Pop
IIASA/WEC98
1990
2020
2050
2100
B
1714
1984
2099
1714
1984
2099
1990
1714
1984
2099
Ref
－
－
474
3852
13871
44593
3852
13871
44593
3852
13871
44593
2038
6660
26933
40
2020
2050
2100
Coal
A3
－
1714
1984
2099
2020
2050
2100
PE
A2
1242
2020
2050
2100
GDP
A1
DNE21/98
－
23
106
188
301
106
188
304
105
181
297
88
149
249
23
56
102
175
17
62
54
28
69
136
212
60
51
7
50
70
146
32
50
60
Assumptions of Driving Forces for
6 SRES Markers
1990
World population
A1FI
A1B
A1T
A2
B1
B2
7.6
8.7
7.1
7.5
8.7
7.1
7.6
8.7
7.0
8.2
11.3
15.1
7.6
8.7
7.0
7.6
9.3
10.4
53
164
525
56
181
529
57
187
550
41
82
243
53
136
328
51
110
235
7.5
2.8
1.5
6.4
2.8
1.6
6.2
2.8
1.6
9.4
6.6
4.2
8.4
3.6
1.8
7.7
4.0
3.0
5.3
2020
2050
2100
World GDP
2020
2050
2100
Per capita income
ratio (Annex1 to
Non-annex 1)
2020
2050
2100
16.1
Which Gives the Right Prediction?
 Possible sources for actual data
Resources
GHGs
Time
most countries till
2000
WDI 2004(WB)
CAIT(WRI),
launched in 2003
CO2 from energy, industrial
production, land use changes, (some
available but highly uncertain)
Non-CO2
1960-2000,
CO2 till 2002
IEA Statistics
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel
combustion
1971-2001
EIA (US), updated
on July 11, 2005
CO2 from energy activities
1980-2003
Comparison of Modeling Results to
Actual Data (CPA and China/0.95)
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
Actual data
0.4
0.2
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
DNE21/98
IIASA/WEC98-A3
AIM/EMF16
1998
2000
2002
IIASA/WEC98-A1
IIASA/WEC98-B
SGM99
2004
2006
2008
2010
IIASA/WEC98-A2
actual data
Comparison of Modeling Results to
Actual Data of ASIAP
3.5
3.0
2.5
Standardization
1990-2000
2.0
1.5
1.0
Actual data
0.5
0.0
1990
A1FI
1992
1994
A1T
1996
1998
2000
actual data
2002
A2
2004
B1
2006
2008
B2
2010
A1B
Modeling Results Tends to Overestimate
Growth of Developing Countries
1990
Actual data
2000
Actual data
World CO2 emissions
7.10
-
7.79
-
World CO2 from energy
5.99
5.84
6.90
6.5
ASIAP
1.15
1.06
1.78
1.58
OECD90
2.83
2.85
3.20
3.20
REF
1.30
1.40
0.91
1.00
ALM
0.72
0.53
1.01
0.74
A Explanation from Driving Forces
CO2
1999
CO2
2000
GDP
1990＝100
Population
1990＝100
Energy
consumption
1990＝100
1.06
1.58
191
116
142
AIM/SRES- A1B,
180
117
125
ASF/SRES- A2
159
118
155
IMAGE/SRES-B1
194
117
135
MESSAGE/SRES-A1T
180
117
142
MESSAGE/SRES-B2
233
116
139
MiniCAM/SRES- A1FI
218
116
173
ASIAP
Actual data
1.15
1.78
III. Analysis on Stabilization Scenarios
 111 policy scenarios related to China
 103 with stabilization targets from 450-750ppm
 China(14): RICE99 and SGM99
 CPA( 1): DNE21/98
 ASIAP( 88): 72 of pSRES and 16 of pSRES2001
 Some scenarios compare different emissions pathways
(WRE ,WGI or MID) with same stabilization targets, or
 The impacts of ET (no trade, partial trade or trade)
Insights to Stabilization
Scenarios
 Policy scenarios with different stabilization targets base




on same reference
Policy scenarios based on different reference is pursuit
of same stabilization targets
Different emissions pathways and the impact of trade
conditions
Burden-sharing scheme
Other possible information on mitigation costs
More Reductions Required to
Achieve Lower Targets
7.0
6.0
Ref
5.0
4.0
650
3.0
550
2.0
450
1.0
0.0
1990
2000
A1B
2010
2020
2030
A1B-450
2040
2050
2060
A1B-550
2070
2080
2090
A1B-650
2100
More Reductions Required based
on Higher Reference
6.00
Ref-high
5.00
4.00
3.00
Ref-low
2.00
sta-550
1.00
0.00
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
RICE99-ref
DNE21/98-ref
RICE99-550
DNE21/98-550
Burden-sharing Scheme
550ppm, 2050
B2
A1B
A1FI
Total reductions required in
the world
11.2-9.9=1.3
16.4-10.2=6.2
23.5-10.7=12.8
ASIAP
4.1-3.8=0.3
5.9-3.8=2.1
10.1-3.9=6.2
EFSU
0.2
0.47
1.62
OECD
0.2
1.48
2.31
ROW
0.5
2.15
2.63
ASIAP’s share in the world
23%
34%
49%
ASIAP’s reduction rate
7.3%
36%
61%
Feasibility of Policy Scenarios for
Developing Countries
 Analysis on the driving forces
550, 2050,
pSRES
GDP loss
PE decrease
Reduction of
Coal use
Coal/PE
B2
-0.4%
-0.4%
-
18
A1B
-1.7%
-22.6%
-51.5%
15
A1FI
-2.9%
-31%
-87%
8
IV. Conclusions: Gaps to be Bridged
 Compared to mature economy of developed countries, the driving
forces of emissions for developing countries are more likely to be
fluctuated with high uncertainty.

The existing modeling results tend to systematically overestimate the
increase of emissions for developing countries. Many general policies
in developing countries have clear implications on climate change
mitigation.
 The feasibility and policy implications of stabilization scenarios need
to be clarified.
 The burden sharing schemes implied in stabilization scenarios takes
no considerations on some important principles, such as equity and
basic needs.