Transcript RAINS Asia Phase 2: In Integrated Assessment Model for

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
IIASA
RAINS-Asia Phase 2:
An Integrated Assessment Model
for Controlling SO2 Emissions
in Asia
M. Amann, H. Akimoto, G. Carmichael, J.-P. Hettelingh,
Y. Ichikawa, K. Oka, J. Shindo, D. Streets
Contents
IIASA
• Model structure
• Improvements
• Illustrative results
• Conclusions
Improvements achieved in Phase 2
IIASA
• Updated energy projections (2030)
• 400 LPS
• Flexible region definition, zoom-in capabilities
• Multi-year meteorology
• SO2 concentrations in ambient air
• Improved database on critical loads with
0.1*0.1 degree resolution
• Windows-based software
• Improved user guidance
• Optimization feature
SO2 emissions in Asia 1984-1998
Source: Streets et al., 2000
IIASA
A revised energy projection for China
Source: ERI, Beijing
IIASA
Changes 1995-2020:
Population
GDP
+25 %
+420 %
Total energy demand
+70 %
Coal
Gas
Renewables
+50 %
+300 %
+30 %
SO2 concentrations
annual mean [g/m3], WHO limit = 50 g/m3
IIASA
2020 with
current legislation
1995
Sulfur deposition
IIASA
2020 with
current legislation
1995
Vegetation map of Asia
Source: CCE, RIVM
IIASA
Unprotected ecosystems
with sulfur deposition above sustainable levels (critical loads)
IIASA
2020 with
current legislation
1995
Optimization in RAINS
IIASA
Energy/agriculture
projections
Emission control
options
Emissions
Costs
OPTIMIZATION
Atmospheric dispersion
Environmental impacts
Environmental
targets
Cost-savings
through targeted (optimized) emission controls
IIASA
Case A:
Return to
emissions
of 1990
Costs, billion US$95/year
39
34
Case B:
Return to
deposition
of 1990
29
Case C:
Return to
excess deposition
of 1990
24
Current
legislation
in 2020
19
14
20
25
30
35
40
45
Emissions, million tons SO2
50
55
60
Cost-savings
through targeted (optimized) emission controls
IIASA
39
Emission control costs (billion $)
Return to emissions
34
Return to deposition
29
1990
Return to excess deposition
24
1995
2000
19
2020 with
current legislation
14
0
10
20
30
40
50
Unprotected ecosystems (million hectares)
60
70
80
Conclusions
IIASA
• RAINS-Asia 2 now available on CD-ROM
• SO2 emissions projections lower than 5 years ago
due to slower economic growth and
new legislation on emission controls
• But acidification problem in Asia will not be fully
resolved
• Optimization tool can assist in finding cost-effective
solutions
• Extension to multi-pollutant (PM, NOx, O3, GHG?)
approach seems possible and relevant
RAINS Asia 2
IIASA
Software on CD-ROM available
– Contact Asian Development Bank
– or IIASA (http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains)
Training sessions planned
Zooming-in for national purposes possible,
supported by IIASA
On the Internet
IIASA
Slides of this presentation
in Powerpoint format
are available at
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains