Transcript IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

IIASA and US
Highlights
(2008-2016)
January 2016
CONTENTS
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2.
3.
4.
5.
Summary
National Member Organization
Some Leading US Personalities Associated with IIASA
Research Partners
Examples of IIASA’s Value to the US
1. From Science to Evidence-based Policy
2. Contributing to the Research Base in Systems Analysis
3. Contributing to US Foreign Policy
6. Further Information
SUMMARY (2008-2016)
National Member
Organization
National Academy of Sciences (NAS)
Membership start date
1972 (founding member)
Research partners
73 organizations in the US
Areas of research
collaborations
Advancing Energy and Integrated Assessment Modeling in the US
Global Energy Assessment and the US
Curbing the Release of Black Carbon and Methane
Projecting Changing Population in the US
Improving the Use of Land for Food and for Combating Climate
Change
Advising Countries with Economies in Transition
Increasing the Resilience of Vulnerable Communities
Analyzing Ecological and Evolutionary Dynamics
Capacity Building
88 young scientists from the US have participated in IIASA’s
Young Scientists Summer Program
6 in IIASA’s Postdoctoral Fellowship Program
5 in the Southern African Young Scientists Summer Program
Publication output
873 publications
Staff
Over 40 US nationals have been employed by IIASA every year
NATIONAL MEMBER ORGANIZATION
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National Academy of Sciences (NAS)
Professor Donald Saari, Director, Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences at
the University of California, Irvine, is IIASA’s Council Member
US Committee for IIASA:
– Professor Donald Saari (Chair), University of California, Irvine
– Dr. Robert Corell, H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the
Environment
– Dr. Peter Gleick, Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and
Security
– Professor Stephen Robinson, University of Wisconsin-Madison (Emeritus)
– Professor Kathleen Segerson, University of Connecticut
– Dr. Barbara Boyle Torrey, National Institute of Aging, NIH
– Dr. Elke Weber, Earth Institute, Columbia University
– Professor Detlof von Winterfeldt, University of Southern California
•
The NMO Secretary for the US is Kathie Bailey, Director, Board on International
Scientific Organizations, NAS.
SOME LEADING US PERSONALITIES FROM
GOVERNMENT AND ASSOCIATED WITH IIASA
McGeorge Bundy
Robert S. McNamara
Steven Chu
E. William Colglazier
Norman Neureiter
John P. Holdren
Vaughan Turekian
SOME LEADING US PERSONALITIES FROM
ACADEMIA AND ASSOCIATED WITH IIASA
George Dantzig
Nathan Keyfitz
William D. Nordhaus
Tjalling Koopmans
Jeffrey Sachs
Donella & Dennis L Meadows
Thomas C. Schelling
COLLABORATING, RESEARCH &
FUNDING PARTNERS
• 73 institutions in the US, including:
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National Science Foundation (NSF)
White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP)
US Department of State
US Department of Energy (DOE)
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Harvard , Princeton, and Yale Universities
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)
Stanford University’s Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)
EXAMPLES OF IIASA’S VALUE TO THE US
1. From Science to Evidence-based Policy
Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP): Multi-Agency
Science and Technology Priorities:
• Global Climate Change
• Clean Energy
• Earth Observations
National Science Foundation Strategic Plan for 2014-18:
• Transform the Frontiers of Science and Engineering
• Stimulate Innovation and Address Societal Needs through
Research and Education
Department of State Strategic Plan 2014-17:
• Promote the Transition to a Low-carbon emission, climateresilient world while expanding global access to sustainable
energy
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS 2000-2100
• Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium includes IIASA & US partners:
MESSAGE
(IIASA)
AIM
(NIES)
GCAM
(PNNL)
IMAGE
(PBL)
Source: van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Weyant, J. (eds) (2011).
Special Issue: The Representative Concentration Pathways in Climatic Change. Climatic
Change, 109(1-2).
9
GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT AND THE US
Source: GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA
10
GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT AND THE US
• 2009 to date: GEA provides critical input
to UN Secretary-General’s Sustainable
Energy For All Initiative including
defining the aspirational yet feasible
objectives:
1. Ensure universal access to modern
energy services
2. Double the global rate of
improvements in energy efficiency
3. Double the share of renewable
energy in the global energy mix
Source: GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA
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EXAMPLES OF IIASA’S VALUE TO THE US
2. Helping to Build the Research Base in Systems Analysis
National Science Foundation Strategic Plan for 2014-18:
• “Investing in the development of the next generation
of researchers, scholars, and knowledge workers is
one of NSF’s most important approaches to
transforming the frontiers of science and engineering”
• “NSF places a high priority on cultivating strong
communities of fundamental researchers and
intellectual pioneers across the globe, working both
as individuals and in a variety of collaborative ways.”
• “Ensure public access to publications”
• “Increase the nation’s data science capacity”
THE NEXT GENERATION OF SYSTEMS ANALYSTS
88 young researchers from the US or undertaking a
PhD in the US have taken part in IIASA’s Young
Scientists Summer Program from 2008 -2015
POSTDOCTORAL FELLOWS
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Adam French (2015-present) is combining meta-analytical and empirical research to examine the
implementation of the Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) paradigm in contexts of the
Global South.
Daniel Jessie (2014-present) is developing different analytic approaches to questions that arise in the
analysis of complex systems, in particular, the nature of strategically interacting agents.
Carl Salk (2013-2015): Using IIASA’s Geo-wiki crowd sourcing tool to generate better land cover maps.
Wei Liu (2012-2014): How changing land use affects ecosystem service provision and natural hazard
vulnerability in Wolong Nature Reserve in China. (1 journal article)
Narasimha Rao (2011-2013): Relationship between electricity access, livelihoods and carbon dioxide
emissions in India. (7 journal articles)
Jose Siri (2009-2011): How urbanization affects the transmission of mosquito-borne disease. (8 journal
articles)
IIASA AS A CONVENOR OF GLOBAL SCIENCE
March 2015
Launch meeting of The World in 2050 project
April 2015
30th Scientific Committee Meeting of IGBP
May 2015
IPCC Expert Meeting on Scenarios
Systems Analysis 2015
A conference in celebration of Howard Raiffa
11-13 November 2015, at IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
Conference Partners
Systems Analysis 2015
• 303 Delegates
• 53 Speakers
• 98 Posters
Conference Partners
• 8221 Web visitors
• 1232 webcast viewers
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE US
Comparing fertility among religions in the US
Religious groups
Total fertility rate
Muslims
2.84
Hispanic Catholics
2.75
Black Protestants
2.35
Liberal Protestants, excluding
Blacks
1.84
Jews
1.43
U.S. population average
2.08
Source: Skirbekk V, Kaufmann E & Goujon A (2010). Secularism, fundamentalism, or Catholicism? The religious composition of
the United States to 2043. Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, 49(2):293-310
New ways to measure aging: Not on people’s chronological age but on
remaining life expectancy, people’s health and cognitive function
65 years old in 1965 = 73.4 years old in 2007
Source: Sanderson, W. C. and Scherbov, S. (2013), The Characteristics Approach to the Measurement of Population Aging.
Population and Development Review, 39: 673–685.
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE US
Age (in Years)
United States - Base Year 2010
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
310.4 Million
Males
15
Females
10
5
0
Population in Millions
5
10
15
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE US
SUSTAINABILITY
Age (in Years)
United States - Projections 2030 - SSP1
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
363.7 Million
Males
15
Females
10
5
0
Population in Millions
5
10
15
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE US
SUSTAINABILITY
Age (in Years)
United States - Projections 2060 - SSP1
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
432 Million
Males
15
Females
10
5
0
Population in Millions
5
10
15
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE US
Age (in Years)
United States - Base Year 2010
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
310.4 Million
Males
15
Females
10
5
0
Population in Millions
5
10
15
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE US
FRAGMENTATION
Age (in Years)
United States - Projections 2030 - SSP3
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
337.3 Million
Males
15
Females
10
5
0
Population in Millions
5
10
15
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE US
FRAGMENTATION
Age (in Years)
United States - Projections 2060 - SSP3
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
326.1 Million
Males
15
Females
10
5
0
Population in Millions
5
10
15
EXAMPLES OF IIASA’S VALUE TO THE US
3. Contributing US Foreign Policy
Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP): Multi-Agency
Science and Technology Priorities:
• Global Climate Change
• Arctic
Department of State Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development
Review
• Increasing our partnerships and engaging beyond the nation
state
• Strengthen climate diplomacy and development
• Engaging Americans as partners in foreign affairs
GLOBAL PROBLEMS REQUIRE GLOBAL
PARTNERSHIPS TO FIND GLOBAL SOLUTIONS
23 countries with IIASA membership
TACKLING BLACK CARBON AND METHANE
GAINS identified 14 key air quality measures that if
implemented could slow the pace of global warming, save
millions of lives, and boost agricultural production.
Global temperature 1900-2070
Reference scenario
IEA World Energy Outlook 2009
CO2 measures
IEA 450 ppm scenario 2009
Near-term measures
IIASA set of 16 measures
for CH4 and black carbon
CO2 + Near-term measures
These 14 measures are
‒ win (for air quality),
‒ win (for near-term climate change)
‒ win (for economic development).
Source: Shindell et al., Science (2012) 335 no. 6065; p. 183-189
TACKLING BLACK CARBON AND METHANE (2)
• Feb 2012: US State Secretary Hillary Clinton
launched the Climate and Clean Air
Coalition to Reduce Short Lived Climate
Pollutants
• Today, CCAC has 33 member countries,
39 International Organizations and IIASA’s
Markus Amann on scientific committee
ARCTIC FUTURES INITIATIVE
BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF
THE GLOBAL DRIVERS ;
IMPACT ON and FEEDBACKS
WITH THE ARTIC
BETTER
UNDERSTANDING OF
THE ARCTIC DRIVERS
IMPACT ON THE
GLOBAL SYSTEMS
Holistic research approach by
• Generating policy relevant
questions
• Collaboration with the Arctic
Council, Arctic Economic
Council, Arctic research
community, governments,
corporate decision makers and
research funders
• Using IIASA methodological
frameworks
• Holistic integrated assessment
EURASIAN ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
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Analyze the challenges and benefits of greater economic integration between Russia,
Belarus and Kazakhstan
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Explore future collaboration between Ukraine, Russia and EU
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Study scenarios of Eurasian integration from Shanghai to Lisbon, its global integration,
and future roles of key players including China, EU, Japan and Russia
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Partners include:
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Administration of the President of the Russian Federation,
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Russian Academy of Sciences,
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Eurasian Development Bank,
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Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies
GOVERNANCE OF TRANSBOUNDARY WATER RESOURCES
ALONG THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO BORDER
• Existing opportunities to adapt the current
binational water allocation regime on the
RG/RB Basin.
• Enabling a mechanism on protection and
conservation of transboundary waters
based on the notion of feasible use.
• There is room for improving the US –
Mexico Transboundary Water Resources
governance.
• However, the missing ingredient is
binational-political will.
FURTHER INFORMATION
IIASA and the US
www.iiasa.ac.at/usa
National Academy of Sciences
http://sites.nationalacademies.org/PGA/biso/IIASA/index.htm
[email protected]