Transcript IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

IIASA and India
Highlights
January 2015
INDIA’S FUTURE
“We need to put science,
technology and innovation at
the top of national priorities.”
PM Narendra Modi, 102nd Indian Science
Congress,Mumbai, Jan 2015
“The world has changed. India
cannot sit isolated in one corner
and determine its future.”
PM Narendra Modi, Independence Day speech,
Red Fort, 2014
IIASA
An international research institute that brings
scientists from across the world to use systems
analysis to study major global problems
CONTENTS
1. Summary
2. National Member Organization
3. Leading Indian Personalities Associated with
IIASA
4. Research Partners
5. Research Collaborations: Selected Highlights
6. Capacity Building
7. Further Information
SUMMARY
National Member
Organization
Technology Information, Forecasting and Assessment
Council (TIFAC)
Membership start date
2007
Research partners
45 institutes in India
Areas of research
collaborations
Land, soil and water management
Pathways to sustainable energy systems
Tackling air pollution
Disaster risk management
Population projections
Energy and climate change modeling
Forest management
Capacity Building
31 young Indian scientists took part in IIASA’s capacity
building programs
19 training workshops in India
Publication output
168 publications
Events
Over 460 Indian nationals at IIASA events
NATIONAL MEMBER ORGANIZATION
• Department of Science and Technology’s
Technology Information, Forecasting and
Assessment Council (TIFAC)
• Prof Ranjan, Executive Director, TIFAC is IIASA’s
Council Member
• National committee for the India-IIASA Programme
chaired by Dr Parikh, former member, Planning
Commission, & Chairman, IRADe
SOME LEADING PERSONALITIES IN INDIA AND
ASSOCIATED WITH IIASA
Kanchan Chopra
Jyoti Parikh
Sunita Narain
Kirit Parikh
Rajendra Pachauri
Leena Srivastava
RESEARCH PARTNERS
• 45 institutions in India, including:
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Centre For Water Resources Development and Management (CWRDM)
Indian Institute of Forest Management (IIFM)
Indian Institute of Management (IIM), Ahmedabad
Institute of Rural Management Anand (IRMA)
Institute for Social and Economic Change (ISEC)
Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe)
International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)
National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (NEERI)
National Institute of Hydrology (NIH)
The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI)
RESEARCH COLLABORATIONS
Selected Highlights:
• Projecting India’s future population
• Sustaining and improving food security and
livelihoods in India
• India’s energy future
– India and the Global Energy Assessment
– Electricity Access and Climate Change
– Tackling air pollution in India
• Increasing India’s resilience to natural disasters
INDIA’S GOALS
“India’s demographic dividend has to be leveraged
fruitfully over the next few decades.”
Resolution of the Government of India Cabinet in January 2015 when it replaced the
Planning Commission with a new institution named NITI Aayog (National Institute for
Transforming India).
PROJECTING INDIA’S FUTURE POPULATION
Age (in Years)
India - Base Year 2010
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
1.22 Billion
Males
100
75
Females
50
25
0
Population in Millions
25
50
75
100
PROJECTING INDIA’S FUTURE POPULATION
RAPID DEVELOPMENT
Age (in Years)
India - Projections 2030 - SSP1
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
1.5 Billion
Males
100
75
Females
50
25
0
Population in Millions
25
50
75
100
PROJECTING INDIA’S FUTURE POPULATION
RAPID DEVELOPMENT
Age (in Years)
India - Projections 2060 - SSP1
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
1.5 Billion
Males
100
75
Females
50
25
0
Population in Millions
25
50
75
100
PROJECTING INDIA’S FUTURE POPULATION
Age (in Years)
India - Base Year 2010
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
1.22 Billion
Males
100
75
Females
50
25
0
Population in Millions
25
50
75
100
PROJECTING INDIA’S FUTURE POPULATION
STALLED DEVELOPMENT
Age (in Years)
India - Projections 2030 - SSP3
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
1.6 Billion
Males
100
75
Females
50
25
0
Population in Millions
25
50
75
100
PROJECTING INDIA’S FUTURE POPULATION
STALLED DEVELOPMENT
Age (in Years)
India - Projections 2060 - SSP3
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
2.1 Billion
Males
100
75
Females
50
25
0
Population in Millions
25
50
75
100
IMPACT OF EDUCATION ON POPULATION
RAPID VERSUS STALLED DEVELOPMENT
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
1.5 Billion
Males
100
India - Projections 2060 SSP3
100+
Females
Age (in Years)
Age (in Years)
India - Projections 2060 SSP1
100+
75
50
25
0
25
50
Population in Millions
75
100
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
2.1 Billion
Males
100
75
Females
50
25
0
25
50
Population in Millions
75
100
INDIA’S GOALS
“Responsible development implies environmentally
sound development. Our development agenda has to
ensure that development does not sully the quality of
life of the present and future generations.”
Resolution of the Government of India Cabinet in January 2015 when it replaced the
Planning Commission with a new institution named NITI Aayog (National Institute for
Transforming India).
SUSTAINING AND IMPROVING FOOD
SECURITY AND LIVELIHOODS IN INDIA
Water Management
Climate Change
Adaptation
Soil Nutrient
Balances
Bundelkhand
Gujarat
Kerala
Water management tool
to select measures to
adapt to impending
scarcity of fresh water
resources
Identify strategies for
vulnerable rural
communities to cope with
the impending impacts of
climate change
Establish a decision
support system for
sustainable soil
management in different
agro-ecological
environments
GIS/DSS:
Spatial assessment and
interactive data access
system
Policy Options for Sustaining and Improving Food
Security and Livelihoods
• Adaptation to climate change
• Water management options
• Soil nutrient management
WATER AND THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY
• Gulbenkian Think Tank on
Water and the Future of
Humanity
• Members include: Sunita
Narain, Director-General,
Center for Science and
Environment, New Delhi &
Pavel Kabat, Director-General
IIASA
• Changes to the way we access,
provide and use water
INDIA’S GOALS
“Achieving universal access to electricity is one of the most
important goals and the Government plans to provide
electricity to each and every household in the country in the
next five years.”
12th Five Year Plan 2012-2017 Planning Commission Government of India
GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT AND INDIA
• GEA co-Chair, 4 convening lead analysts,
and several lead analysts were Indians
• GEA’s energy scenarios
developed into a global energy
vision for India till 2050 with IRADe
• Spin-off report on GEA’s insights
into providing two billion access to
clean modern energy had focus
on India
• UN Secretary-General’s Sustainable
Energy For All initiative
adopted GEA’s key
findings and IIASA with
TERI providing knowledge to
achieve these objectives
POPULATION NEEDING NEW CONNECTIONS TO
ACHIEVE UNIVERSAL ACCESS BY 2030 IN INDIA
0.3
Additional population that needs to be electrified to achieve
universal electrification by 2030
No. of people (billions)
0.25
0.2
65 kWh
420 kWh
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
2010
2020
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.075
2030
ELECTRICITY ACCESS & CLIMATE CHANGE
ELECTRICITY ACCESS IN INDIA: 1981
Pachauri, S. 2014. Household electricity access a trivial contributor to
CO2 emissions growth in India. Nature Climate Change
DOI:10.1038/nclimate2414
ELECTRICITY ACCESS & CLIMATE CHANGE
ELECTRICITY ACCESS IN INDIA: 1991
Pachauri, S. 2014. Household electricity access a trivial contributor to
CO2 emissions growth in India. Nature Climate Change
DOI:10.1038/nclimate2414
ELECTRICITY ACCESS & CLIMATE CHANGE
ELECTRICITY ACCESS IN INDIA: 2001
Pachauri, S. 2014. Household electricity access a trivial contributor to
CO2 emissions growth in India. Nature Climate Change
DOI:10.1038/nclimate2414
ELECTRICITY ACCESS & CLIMATE CHANGE
ELECTRICITY ACCESS IN INDIA: 2011
Pachauri, S. 2014. Household electricity access a trivial contributor to
CO2 emissions growth in India. Nature Climate Change
DOI:10.1038/nclimate2414
EMISSION GROWTH IN INDIA 1981-2011 (MtCO2)
Pachauri, S. 2014. Household electricity access a trivial contributor to
CO2 emissions growth in India. Nature Climate Change
DOI:10.1038/nclimate2414
CO2 MITIGATION IN MAJOR
ECONOMIES IN 2°C REGIMES
2011-2014
€3.5 million
van Sluisveld, M.A.E., Gernaat, D.E.H.J., Ashinab, S., Calvin, K.V. Garg, A., Isaac, M., Lucas, P.L., Mouratiadou, I., Otto, A.A.C., Rao
, S., Shukla, P.R., van Vliet, J., van Vuuren, D.P., : Regional differences in mitigation efforts across modeled current and emerging
major economies in 2°C regimes. Special Issue, Climate Change Economics (LIMITS)
TACKLING AIR POLLUTION IN INDIA
• GAINS ASIA identified advanced air pollution
measures for India for next 20 years which will:
• Increase life expectancy by 2.8 years
• Avoid 2.5 million premature deaths
• Pay for themselves by improving health, reducing lost work
days, and increasing productivity
DOI: 10.1021/es402867r
INDIA’S GOALS
“Disaster risk reduction will need to be thus incorporated in
all major schemes for reducing the vulnerability in the
hazards prone areas of the country.”
12th Five Year Plan 2012-2017 Planning Commission Government of India
INCREASING INDIA’S RESILIENCE
DOI: 10.5595/idrim.2012.0033
INDIA’S GOAL
“Our future will be secure and our global leadership
possible, if we also prepare the next generation of
world class scientists.”
PM Narendra Modi, 102nd Indian Science Congress,Mumbai, Jan 2015
CAPACITY BUILDING
22 Indian nationals won places on IIASA’s Young
Scientists Summer Program between 2007 and 2014
SIX INDIAN NATIONALS:
REGIONAL YSSP: SOUTHERN AFRICA
YSSP 2012/13
19 doctoral students
from 16 countries
YSSP 2013/14
36 doctoral students
from 21 countries
YSSP 2014/15
28 doctoral students
from 17 countries
35
POSTDOCTORAL FELLOWS
• Narasimha Rao (2011-2013): Relationship between electricity
access, livelihoods and carbon dioxide emissions in India. (7
journal articles)
• Tapas Mishra (2007-2008): Demography and economic
growth. (7 journal articles)
POSTDOCTORAL FELLOWS
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0300-8
• Upasna Sharma
• PhD: Indian Institute of Technology,
Bombay
• Postdoc with IIASA’s risk and
vulnerability team 2009-2011
• Researched reducing vulnerability
to natural disasters in India and
published 5 journal articles.
• E.g. Compared landslide
management in India and Italy and
found landslide risk benefits from a
decentralized approach.
• Today: Indian Institute of
Technology, Delhi and continues to
collaborate with IIASA
ACADEMIC TRAINING WORKSHOPS
• 19 workshops in India since 2007, including:
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CEPT University, Ahmedabad (2011)
Indian Institute of Forest Management (IIFM), Bhopal (2010)
Institute of Rural Management Anand (IRMA), (2012)
Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore (2010)
International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai (2010)
International Training Programme Air Pollution Management,
Pune (2010)
Madras School of Economics, Madras (2010)
National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (NEERI),
Nagpur, (2012)
National Institute of Hydrology (NIH), Roorkee (2011)
National Institute of Science, Technology & Development
Studies (NISTADS), New Delhi (2009)
THANK YOU
Further Information
IIASA and INDIA
www.iiasa.ac.at/india
India-IIASA Programme
TIFAC (www.tifac.org)
[email protected]