Transcript PowerPoint 演示文稿 - International Institute for

IIASA CSM Special Session on
Meta-Synthesis
How to evaluate China GDP
growth with the impact of
SARS by Meta-synthesis
System Approach
NSFC Major project 79990580
September 11, 2003
Contents
• Brief introduction to the Metasynthesis System
Approach
• Introduction to a collaborative Tool: PathMaker
• Introduction to Experiment
– Test Flow
– PathMaker Template
– Strength & Weakness
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Brief introduction to the
Metasynthesis System
Approach
• Metasynthesis approach aims to unite organically
the data, information, model and experience to
solve the open complex giant system problems.
• The design of Hall of Workshop for Metasynthetic Engineering (HWMSE) contributes to
collect and develop the knowledge and wisdom or
creation directly from experts and decision makers
who attend the discussion meeting in this Hall.
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Generic Framework of HWMSE
Social
Recognition
Knowledge
System
Reform
World
Result
Expert System
Recognition
of World
Proposition
Machine
System
Social
Practice
Objective
World
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Qualitative MetaSynthesis
Contents of
Meta-synthesis
Qualitative-Quantitative
Meta-Synthesis
Meta-Synthesis
From Qualitative Hypothesis to
Quantitative Validation
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For realizing the MSA we design a flowchart:
from synchronous meeting I to
asynchronous analysis, then synchronous
meeting II. If the problem is not solving ,we
will iterate this process again and again
until getting some solution, or consensus.
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Synchronous I
Meeting Process
in HWMSE
Asynchronous
Synchronous II
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Data
Information
Knowledge
Synchronous I
Asynchronous
Case
Divergent
ECB, GAE, etc.
Convergent
PathMaker
Synchronous II
Hypotheses,
Scenarios
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Time Series,
RA
Modeling
by Data
Synchronous I
Modeling
by Mechanism
Modeling
by Rules
Asynchronous
Modeling by
Learning
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Econometric
Model
Modeling by
Evolutionary
Scenario
Multi-Agent
Simulation
Synchronous II
Modeling by
Case
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Meta-Synthesis
System
Reconstruction
Synchronous I
Asynchronous
Synchronous II
AHP,
Nominal Group,
ECB
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Possibly
Satisfying
Approach
PathMaker,
ExpertChoice
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Main Hall
(Beijing) (see Dai,
Cui & Li’s reports)
Seminar Room
(Xi’an)
Synchronous I
Seminar Room
(Beijing)
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Asynchronous
Decision
Technologies
Agent
Synchronous II
Modeling
Agent
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Introduction to a
collaborative Tool:
PathMaker
• As a software tool for assisting teams or
individuals to improve their projects or
solving problems by discussion and analysis.
• We use it as a tool for applying MSA to
solving the problems in the macroeconomic
system.
• Some other tools or methods are also
applied, such as Group Argumentation
Environment, Data mining and some
economic models as mentioned before.
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5 components
8 kinds of tools
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Starting a project with Pathway
• Pathway is an important concept of
PathMaker, Each project follows a pathway.
The pathway is the backbone of a project,
providing access to tools, meetings, and
just-in-time instruction. Users make project
plan, use different tools, arrange meeting,
create agenda and so on in the Project
Pathway.
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The Pathway of MSA Test
in IIASA by PathMaker /1
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The Pathway of MSA Test in
IIASA by PathMaker /2
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Other four parts along with a Project Pathway:
• Project Information: All the information about the
projects can be included in Project Information.
• Team Member: The information of all the team
member, including members’ names, passwords,
limitation, and their responsibility are recorded and
managed here.
• Action Items: Includes ID, description, person
responsible, deadline and status.
• Discussion History: Every team member can design
and trigger an on-line discussion, either in a intranet
or in internet
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Introduction to IIASA
Experiment
Preparation
• One preparation meeting for discussion Time, Place,
Team Members, Meeting Tools and Action Items in
the meeting.
–
–
–
–
Place:Conference room in IIASA
Chairman: Jifa Gu and Makowski Marek
Team Member:
Meeting Tools: computers; projectors; printer; reticles
and Software (PathMaker, Expert Choice, Internet)
– Meeting Action Item:
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Prepare Meeting M0
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M1-1 Free Discussion
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Free Discussion by Brainstorming /
Affinity Tool
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Group Argumentation by GAE
(See Tang’s report)
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Registration to GAE/Pathmaker
ID
Name
password
Beulens
Adrie Beulens
adrie
Makowski
Marek Makowski
marek
Naka
Y. Nakamori
naka
Pawlak
Zdzislaw Pawlak
pawl
Granat
Janusz Granat
granat
Michal
W.Michalowsk
michal
Lewan
A. Lewandowski
lewan
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M1-3 Further Discussion
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• Cause and effect diagram is a versatile tool for arranging
ideas in a tree structure. Cause & Effect Tool can be used
to discover the reasons for a certain result. It denotes the
cause-effect relationship in a tree form. Uses include the
traditional fault tree or root cause analysis, organization
diagramming, parts hierarchies, project planning, tree
diagrams, and the 5 Whys.
• Force Field Tool can be used to analyze and display the
driving forces and restraining forces of a transformation. It
is composed of four columns. From the left to right, the
first column denotes the driving forces, the second denotes
how strong the driving forces are, the third denotes how
strong the restraining forces are and the fourth denotes the
restraining forces.
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Cause and effect
diagram about
High development
scenario
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Force Field Analysis
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Analysis
Use different models to making analysis of
macroeconomic system
• Model I: Modeling by knowing mechanism of
system,e.g. econometric model (See Zhou’s report)
• Model II: Modeling by Data, such as some Data
Mining models (See Tian’s report)
• Model III: System Reconstructability Analysis
(see Gu’s report)
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Consensus Building Tool
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Using Consensus Builder not only can
evaluate and quantify opinions, but also
can structurize the discussion. There are
three methods users can use to build
consensus with this tool, which are:
1. Rating Vote
2. Multivote
3. Group Multivote
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Discussion of
Strength and Weakness
(all participants)
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