Transcript Ken Colburn Presentation - New England Demand Response Initiative

Air Quality and Energy:
Problem or Opportunity?
NEDRI
July 16, 2002
Ken Colburn
Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management
[email protected]
Simultaneous Economic Growth and
Environmental Improvement
Sources: 1970 - 1999 emissions data is from the National Air Pollutant Emissions Trend Report, (EPA, March 2000).
Projections for SO2 and NOx are derived from the Integrated Planning Model (IPM). GDP data through 2000 is from
the Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP projections follow EIA’s assumptions in AEO 2001 of 3% growth per year.
Starting Point
• Public Officials’ Job: Quality of Life
• QOL =
- Healthy Bodies,
- Healthy Economy, and
- Healthy Ecosystems
• Increasingly, the interests of the
environment and economic well-being are
aligned…
• So, economic and environmental
regulators need to “align” better as well.
Acid Deposition Levels in the United States
Source: US EPA
Acid Neutralizing Capacity (ANC) of NH Lakes
and Remote Ponds
Sensitivity
Category
ANC
(mg/L)
Summer
%
No.
Winter
%
No.
Spring
%
No.
< 0
21
3
19
3
6
10
Critical
> 0-2
134
18
141
19
26
46
Endangered
> 2-5
244
32
237
32
15
26
Highly Sensitive
> 5-10
228
30
224
31
8
14
Sensitive
> 10-20
98
13
80
11
2
4
> 20
31
4
32
4
0
0
756
100%
733
100%
57
100%
Acidified
Not Sensitive
Total
Source: DES
Atmospheric Deposition Estimates for Total Nitrogen, 1996
Source: US EPA
Impact of Ozone on White Pine Health
as Measured by Red Edge Inflection Point (REIP)
NH Forest Products Industry =
$1.6 billion direct economic impact
annually…
Source: UNH Forest Watch
Anthropogenic Mercury Deposition Rates
in the United States
NH Fishing Industry = $300 million
annual economic impact…
Source: USEPA, Mercury Study Report to Congress, December 1997.
Visibility Impairment in New Hampshire’s White Mountains:
Mt. Jefferson photographed from AMC’s Camp Dodge at near
natural conditions (6 deciviews) and at 90+ percentile haze (28 deciviews)
Source: Appalachian Mountain Club
Tourism is NH’s 2nd largest industry, with $3.5
billion direct economic impact annually…
Temperature
Change in
New England
1985-1999
(Source: NERA, 2001)
Changes in Dominant Forest Types Under
Two Climate Scenarios
Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program
NEG-ECP Climate Commitment:
Why Should States Start? Our Actions Count!
• 1997 GHG Emissions:
– NESCAUM States > Canada, Korea, Italy, Mexico,
Australia, Brazil, France, Spain
– New York > Taiwan, Venezuela
– New England > Netherlands, Argentina
– New Jersey > Egypt, Belgium, Algeria
– Massachusetts > Greece, Austria, Denmark, Kuwait,
Norway, Sweden, Israel, Portugal
– Connecticut > Switzerland, Ireland, New Zealand, Peru
– Maine > Croatia, Estonia, Tunisia
– New Hampshire > Lithuania, Jordan, Ivory Coast
– Rhode Island > Bolivia, Jamaica, Panama, Kenya
– Vermont > Paraguay, Tanzania, Iceland, Cyprus
Air pollution and climate
change problems largely
share a common root:
Energy…
… But can we address Energy
without injuring the Economy?
ISO-NE Load
[source www.iso-ne.com]
30000
25000
Mw
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
08/06/2001
08/07/2001
08/08/2001
08/09/2001
08/10/2001
Hourly Bids ISO-NE
$/Mwh
[source www.iso-ne.com]
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
08/06/2001 08/07/2001 08/08/2001 08/09/2001
08/10/2001
Energy Reliability
• Demand-side investments (e.g., energy efficiency)
are less expensive and more reliable than fixing
weak links in the supply side (Generation, T&D):
– EE enhances reliability of each link vs. having the
“Next Weak Link” emerge
– EE load reductions follow load profile well, so they
diminish peaks
– Slightly lower peaks produce substantial savings and
avoid costly, little-used, supply-side upgrades
– EE reduces environmental impact (e.g., fuel use,
emissions, need to site new plants and T&D lines,
and future environmental risk)
(Source: Efficient Reliability, Cowart/RAP, 2001)
Energy and National Security
• Energy Security is best served by:
– Fewer vulnerable targets like centralized fossil
plants, nukes, dams, refineries, pipelines, and
transmission facilities
– More distributed generation (DG)
– Less imported oil
– More energy efficiency, energy conservation and
Demand-Side Management (DSM)
• National Security better served by:
– Above items
– Greater multi-lateralism on all fronts
An Economic Sea Change is Underway
Old
Paradigm:
New
Paradigm:
Economy
Economy
Energy
Environment
Environment
Energy
Evidence of an Economic Sea Change
• ACEEE: Energy/GDP fell 42% from 1970-1999
• Global Business Competitiveness:
– Power Quality & Reliability is more and more important
• Bank of Omaha example (chose fuel cells)
– Companies Need to Reduce Vulnerability to Price
Shocks, Supply Disruptions, etc.
– Basis of Financial Performance and International
Competitiveness is Changing (“Triple Bottom Line”)
– Economic Opportunity: “Who will own the patents?”
– Dollar cost savings that Energy Efficiency provides
• New England: High Electric Rates, but:
– Low Poverty Rate, Unemployment Rate, etc.
– High Growth in Jobs, Businesses, Per Capita Income
Per Capita Personal Income versus Utility Average Electricity
Price for the 50 States and Washington, DC
(Data Sources: US Departm ent of Com m erce, Bureau of Econom ic Analysis
US Energy Inform ation Adm inistration)
Per Capita Personal Incom e (1998)
$40,000
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Utility Average Electricity Price (cents/kWh, 1998)
12
13
Green & Gold 2000 - Rankings of States
Data Source: Institute for Southern Studies, 2000
50
Green - Environmental Ranking
45
40
35
Lowest
Ranked
States
30
25
20
15
Highest
Ranked
States
10
5
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Gold - Economic Ranking
35
40
45
50
“Place” Matters More
in the New Economy
In an economy where physical assets are not as
important as they used to be, where intellectual assets
dominate, where business can be conducted from
anywhere to anywhere, it would seem that place
should not matter; in fact, it matters more. … Places –
through the quality of life they offer – matter because
entrepreneurs and highly skilled and sought-after workers
want to live in areas with educational, cultural, natural and
civic amenities.1 [emphasis added]
1
NetworkNH (a consortium of high tech companies),
NH in the 21st Century, Competing in the New Economy,
December 1, 2000, p. 16. See http://www.network.com
Old or New Energy Path?
Sustainability
Energy Efficiency Path
(More reliable, more
secure, cleaner,
more exportable)
Competitive
Advantage
Lost to
Delay
Energy Intensity Path
(Less reliable, less
secure, less clean,
less exportable)
Now
Later
TIME