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A Development Round of Climate Negotiations Tariq Banuri, SEI 2007 From Science to Policy D E What should we do How much emissions are acceptable C What is safe conc ∆T What is safe limit I What are critical impacts Climate Tipping Points Earthland Climate Options Concentration Shift to Renewables CCS Energy Efficiency Carbon Emissions Energy Per Capita Income Population Limit Population How much Is enough The Aggregate Challenge Population bns 2005 2100 IS92a 2100 2100 450 ppm Trajectory GDP/cap PPP$ 6.42 11.3 6,541 29,730 9-11 25-30K Little change possible, but final figure could be between 9 and 11 billions Higher income considered desirable but quality of growth could be improved E/Y MJ/$ 12.1 4.5 C/E KgC/GJ 14.8 13.4 C GtC 7.5 20.4 Need 2-3 not 55 ~1.0 Potential for change mainly here. It needs to be about 5 per cent of the projected numbers. ~1.0 The Context Global inequality is higher than inequality within any country, and it is getting worse. • • • • • 1950 2000 Income increase over 5x Trade increase nearly 12x 1950 – Rich 30x over Poor 1989 – Rich 60x over Poor 2000 – Rich 80x over Poor Per Capita Emissions and Income Carbon Emissions/Capita (tons) 14.00 Qatar 12.00 10.00 United Arab Emirates 8.00 Bahrain 6.00 Singapore United States Australia 4.00 Saudi Arabia Czech Republic Luxembourg Norway Canada Japan 2.00 Switzerland Hong Kong, China 0.00 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 GDP/Capita (PPP$) Source: World Bank (1998); Marland, et al. (1998). 25,000 30,000 35,000 Anil Agarwal (1948-2002) We need to follow a precautionary principle. We need to take cognizance of science very quickly, but have a healthy distrust of technological development, for whatever be its nature, when applied on a massive scale, it can have serious environmental impacts. One must be sceptical of these tendencies. Simultaneously one must take cognizance of any scientific evidence of damage at an early stage, not wait for a crisis before taking action. Responsibility Phase: The UNFCCC PREAMBLE: Emphasizes differentiated responsibility, prevention of harm, differing needs, vulnerabilities, capabilities and resources. [12 out of 23 paragraphs] OBJECTIVES: Calls for economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. PRINCIPLES: Each of 5 principles includes equity considerations: equity, special needs, precautionary measures, right to sustainable development, and developing country growth. Capacity Phase: Kyoto for the North • Commitments by Annex 1 to reduce emissions by 5.2 % below 1990 by 2008-12 • Mechanisms: flexible instruments, adaptation fund, inventories and baselines • Principles: “Equity” disappears, financial and technological transfers less prominent, focus shifts to domestic action/options, separate but equal approach to sustainable development (minimize harm), developing countries exempted Investment Phase 2009? • The Folly of Conventional Options – Pressure South for commitments without any commitment on growth, inequality, or rights – Seek Southern projects only to lower Northern costs (Expanded CDM) – how effective? – Establish a global tradable permits regime (but is there willingness to make windfall transfers) • Alternative approach: Support Transition to Renewables in the South The Development Imperative • Economic growth is the only recipe short of a global revolution to reduce inequality, establish human rights, and eradicate poverty • The inability to mobilize international action on climate is in part because of the inequality • Current solution—separate and equal—produces only a race between growth and catastrophe • Only by integrating the twin goals (climate and development) can progress be made Policy Credibility • • • • large-scale public works subsidy shifting conventional regulation green taxes and other non-trading market mechanisms • legal action • all backed and monitored by popular movements and evaluated against ambitious short- and longterm targets. Integrating Climate and Development: digging deeper • Rethinking North and South: The structural adjustment analogy • Rethinking technology transfer: the green revolution analogy • Rethinking policy: consistency, what we know, and investment • Rethinking Costs: micro or macro • Rethinking financing Beyond Rearranging Deckchairs