Transcript CWHvm1-W Presentation March

SFFES- Ecological Sensitivity Workshop
CWHvm1 Westside
(13% of District)
CWHvm1-West Espinosa Inlet
CWHvm1-West Espinosa Inlet - Current BEC
Bookend climate scenarios
CWHvm1-West Espinosa Inlet– PCM-B1 2050
CWHvm1-West – PCM-B1 2050
CWHxm1 temp
CWHvh
precip
CWHvm1-West Espinosa Inlet– HAD-A1FI 2050
CWHvm1-West – HAD-A1F1 2050
CWHxm
temp
CWHvh(+)
Precip
CWHvm1-West – HAD-A1F1 2050
Summer heat:
moisture index
At the CWHvm1(+)
level
CONSIDER CWHvm1-West STAND / ECOSYSTEMS –
In a changing climate
CWHvm1-West STAND / ECOSYSTEMS- 2050(PCM &
HAD)
SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:
Species
Vuln.
Class
Hw
Vulnerability Classes
Low – Stands will suffer minor losses due to climate
change.
Mod – likely will suffer significant but manageable losses
and or secondary risks (fire etc.)
High – likely will suffer major losses or incur high
secondary risks, but catastrophic losses unlikely.
Very High – likelihood for catastrophic losses are high.
Opp.
Class
Reasoning (e.g. drought stress/
Increase in growth, likely few
problems – see vh
Opportunity Classes
Nil – No opportunity to enhance growth.
Minor – Minor growth enhancement likely.
Significant – significant growth enhancement
likely.
CWHvm1-West STAND / ECOSYSTEMS- 2050(PCM &
HAD)
SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:
Species
Vuln. Class
Opp.
Class
Reasoning (e.g. drought stress/
Cw and other
species
See comments in vh
Fd
Increased growing season moisture
will work against it. Slope and aspect
critical – south slopes low down.
30% increase with HAD in moisture We could get more bog forests
happening out here – trees dying
around the edges of wetlands. This
comment could happen in the vh as
well.
May be more disturbance in slope
failures – perhaps more Dr may
come in.
CWHvm1-West STAND / ECOSYSTEMS- 2050(PCM &
HAD)
SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:
Species
Dr
Vuln. Class
Opp.
Class
Reasoning (e.g. drought stress/
Would do better generally in the new
vm1 climate – more disturbance may
see more of it.
May be good to encourage some of it
for diversity.
CWHvm1-West Ecol. Suitable Regen – Now and Future
MESIC SITE DISCUSSION :
1.
2.
3.
% of orig
area
Ba
187,600
26
CWHvm1
99
26
CWHvm1
84
26
MESIC SITES
Present
PCM-B1
2050
HADA1F1
2050
Green
Yellow
Orange
What are the vulnerabilities and why? (drought / insects /
% of orig
disease?)
area
MESIC SITES
Ba Bg Bl
Bp Cw Fd
Present CWHvm1
26
9,16
What are the opportunities
– (ha)
where187,600
/ when?
PCM-B1
What are the outstanding
questions?99
CWHvm1
26
9,16
2050
CWHvm1 (ha)
CWHvm1 warm
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
Bg
Bl
14
Footnotes in cells - see list
HADCWHvm1
A1F1
CWHvm1 warm
Bp2050
Cw Fd Hm Hw Lw
Green
Primary
Yellow 9,16Secondary
Orange
Tertiary
84
26
Preliminary
9,16 Sensitivity Interpretation
7,35
Yc
Act
Dr
b
7,25 a
Ep
suitable on sites lacking salal
suitable minor species on salal-dominated sites
risk of white pine blister rust
risk of weevil damage
restricted to fresh soil moisture regimes
Mb
Pl
Pw
Qg
Ra
b
7,35
b
7,25 a
b
7,35
b
7,25 a
b
CWHvm1 Under the PCM scenario the Westside of VI will continue to have a similar climate envelope and species
b 7,42 a 18 a
b
overall temperatures than found in the maritime subzones over a portion of the
area, which will bcreate conditions
un
Suggested species are listed for discussion.
7
restricted to nutrient-medium sites
9
restricted to southerly aspects
10
restricted
toenvelope
northerly aspects
CWHvm1 Under the PCM scenario the Westside of VI will continue to have a similar
climate
and species choices. The HAD scenario indicates warmer
16
restricted to southern portion of biogeoclimatic unit in region
overall temperatures than found in the maritime subzones over a portion of the area, which will create conditions unfamiliar to the species in some instances.
18
restricted to eastern portion of biogeoclimatic unit in region
Suggested species are listed for discussion.
24
suitable (as a major species) in wetter portion of BEC unit
25
suitable on sites lacking salal
Footnotes
26
suitable minor species on salal-dominated sites
7
restricted to nutrient-medium sites
31
risk of white pine blister rust
9
restricted to southerly aspects
35
risk of weevil damage
10
restricted to northerly aspects
42
restricted to fresh soil moisture regimes
16
restricted to southern portion of biogeoclimatic unit in region
a
productive, reliable, and feasible regeneration option
18
restricted to eastern portion of biogeoclimatic unit in region
b
limited in productivity, reliability and/or feasibility
24
suitable (as a major species) in wetter portion of BEC unit
25
26
31
35
42
Lw
Novel climate envelope - suggested species
Novel climate envelope
- suggested species
Footnotes
Preliminary Sensitivity Interpretation
Hw
9,16
14
Pl Pw Py Se Ss Sx
Footnotes in cells - see list
9,16
Hm
CWHvm1-West Regeneration Vulnerabilities &
Opportunities
Mesic Sites
MESIC SITES
MESIC
Present
PCM-B1
Present
2050
PCM-B1
2050
HADHADA1F1
A1F1
2050
2050
Green
Green
Yellow
Yellow
Orange
Orange
% of orig
area
SITES
CWHvm1 (ha)
Ba Bg
% of orig
area
187,600Ba 26Bg Bl
CWHvm1 (ha)
187,600
CWHvm1
99
CWHvm1
CWHvm1
99 84
84
CWHvm1
CWHvm1 warm
CWHvm1
Primary warm
Primary
Secondary
Secondary
Tertiary
Tertiary
14
Bl
Bp
Cw
Bp
Cw
Fd
26
Hm
Hm
9,16 Hw
Hw
Lw
9,16
26
26
Fd
26
26
Lw
Pl
Pw
Pl
Py
Pw
Se
Py
Ss
Ss
Sx
Yc Act
7,35
7,35
9,16
9,16
Se
9,16
9,16
Sx
b
Yc
Dr
7,35
7,35
Ep
7,25 a
b
b
b
7,25 a
b
7,25 a
b
7,42 a 18 a
7,25 a
7,42 a 18 a
b
Novel climate envelope - suggested species
Novel climate envelope - suggested species
restricted to nutrient-medium sites
Added
Comments:
restricted to southerly aspects
•
•
•
•
•
restricted to nutrient-medium sites
restricted to southerly aspects
restricted to northerly aspects
restricted to northerly aspects
restricted to southern portion of biogeoclimatic unit in region
restricted to southern portion of biogeoclimatic unit in region
restricted to eastern portion of biogeoclimatic unit in region
restricted
eastern
portion
of biogeoclimatic
unit
in region
suitable
(as to
a major
species)
in wetter
portion of BEC
unit
suitable
a major
in wetter portion of BEC unit
suitable
on(as
sites
lackingspecies)
salal
suitable
on sites
lacking
salal
suitable
minor
species
on salal-dominated
sites
suitable
minor
on salal-dominated sites
risk
of white
pine species
blister rust
risk
riskofofweevil
whitedamage
pine blister rust
restricted
to fresh
soil moisture regimes
risk of weevil
damage
productive,
regeneration
restricted reliable,
to freshand
soilfeasible
moisture
regimes option
limited
in
productivity,
reliability
and/or
feasibility
productive, reliable, and feasible regeneration
option
Ra
b
Preliminary
Sensitivity
Interpretation
Preliminary Sensitivity
Interpretation
CWHvm1
Under
the
PCM
scenario
Westside
will continue
similar envelope
climate envelope
and
speciesThe
choices.
The HAD
scenario
indicates warmer
CWHvm1 Under the PCM scenario the the
Westside
of VI of
willVIcontinue
to havetoa have
similara climate
and species
choices.
HAD scenario
indicates
warmer
overall
temperatures
than
found
in
the
maritime
subzones
over
a
portion
of
the
area,
which
will
create
conditions
unfamiliar
to
the
species
in
some
instances.
overall temperatures than found in the maritime subzones over a portion of the area, which will create conditions unfamiliar to the species in some instances.
Suggested
species
are
listed
for
discussion.
Suggested species are listed for discussion.
Footnotes
Footnotes
77
99
10
10
16
16
18
18
24
24
25
25
26
26
31
35
31
42
35
a
42
ba
b
M
b
b
b
14
Footnotes
in cells - see list
Footnotes in cells - see list
Dr
Ep b Mb
7,25 Qg
a
7,25 a
7,35
7,35
Act
Bg – seems like the mountains only limitation to getting out here anyway.
•
Need to be cautious – trial basis – try on the lower end first. We have Ba
anyway.
Ba – grows well – should be no problems
Hw and Cw – should be not issues.
Fd – be diligent – be careful where it goes – warm, dry slopes low down – not
limited in productivity, reliability and/or feasibility
expanding it outside of where it already is.
Pw – too wet – prone to Dothestroma – endemic and could be a big problem with
more humidity
b
CWHvm1-West Regeneration Vulnerabilities &
Opportunities
Mesic Sites
MESIC SITES
MESIC
Present
PCM-B1
Present
2050
PCM-B1
2050
HADHADA1F1
A1F1
2050
2050
Green
Green
Yellow
Yellow
Orange
Orange
% of orig
area
SITES
CWHvm1 (ha)
Ba Bg
% of orig
area
187,600Ba 26Bg Bl
CWHvm1 (ha)
187,600
CWHvm1
99
CWHvm1
CWHvm1
99 84
84
CWHvm1
CWHvm1 warm
CWHvm1
Primary warm
Primary
Secondary
Secondary
Tertiary
Tertiary
14
Bl
Bp
Cw
Bp
Cw
Fd
26
Hm
Hm
9,16 Hw
Hw
Lw
9,16
26
26
Fd
26
26
Lw
Pl
Pw
Pl
Py
Pw
Se
Py
Ss
Ss
Sx
Yc Act
7,35
7,35
9,16
9,16
Se
9,16
9,16
Sx
b
Yc
Dr
7,35
7,35
Ep
7,25 a
b
b
b
7,25 a
b
7,25 a
b
7,42 a 18 a
7,25 a
7,42 a 18 a
b
Novel climate envelope - suggested species
Novel climate envelope - suggested species
restricted to nutrient-medium sites
Added
Comments:
restricted to southerly aspects
•
•
•
restricted to nutrient-medium sites
restricted to southerly aspects
restricted to northerly aspects
restricted to northerly aspects
restricted to southern portion of biogeoclimatic unit in region
restricted to southern portion of biogeoclimatic unit in region
restricted to eastern portion of biogeoclimatic unit in region
restricted
eastern
portion
of biogeoclimatic
unit
in region
suitable
(as to
a major
species)
in wetter
portion of BEC
unit
suitable
a major
in wetter portion of BEC unit
suitable
on(as
sites
lackingspecies)
salal
suitable
on sites
lacking
salal
suitable
minor
species
on salal-dominated
sites
suitable
minor
on salal-dominated sites
risk
of white
pine species
blister rust
risk
riskofofweevil
whitedamage
pine blister rust
restricted
to fresh
soil moisture regimes
risk of weevil
damage
productive,
regeneration
restricted reliable,
to freshand
soilfeasible
moisture
regimes option
limited
in
productivity,
reliability
and/or
feasibility
productive, reliable, and feasible regeneration
option
Other species –
Dr – will be good to get a bit more in to increase diversity, and also should grow a bit
better.
Ss – same as the vh – resistant stock – may actually grow better here with more
warmth and resistant stock.
limited in productivity, reliability and/or feasibility
Ra
b
Preliminary
Sensitivity
Interpretation
Preliminary Sensitivity
Interpretation
CWHvm1
Under
the
PCM
scenario
Westside
will continue
similar envelope
climate envelope
and
speciesThe
choices.
The HAD
scenario
indicates warmer
CWHvm1 Under the PCM scenario the the
Westside
of VI of
willVIcontinue
to havetoa have
similara climate
and species
choices.
HAD scenario
indicates
warmer
overall
temperatures
than
found
in
the
maritime
subzones
over
a
portion
of
the
area,
which
will
create
conditions
unfamiliar
to
the
species
in
some
instances.
overall temperatures than found in the maritime subzones over a portion of the area, which will create conditions unfamiliar to the species in some instances.
Suggested
species
are
listed
for
discussion.
Suggested species are listed for discussion.
Footnotes
Footnotes
77
99
10
10
16
16
18
18
24
24
25
25
26
26
31
35
31
42
35
a
42
ba
b
M
b
b
b
14
Footnotes
in cells - see list
Footnotes in cells - see list
Dr
Ep b Mb
7,25 Qg
a
7,25 a
7,35
7,35
Act
b
PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE
CWHvm1-West Espinosa Inlet – PCM-B1 2080
Dominant
Subzone Climate
% of the
CWHvm1
CWHvm1
100%
PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE
CWHvm1-West Espinosa Inlet – HAD-A1F1 2080
Dominant
Subzone Climate
% of the
CWHvm1
CWHvm-hot
44%
CWHvm1
34%
CWHvm1-warm
17%
PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE
CWHvm1-West Espinosa Inlet – HAD-A1F1 2080
Values for CWHvm-hot (dark green valley bottoms)
ANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABLES
Now
2080
mean annual temperature
mean warmest month temperature
mean coldest month temperature
extreme minimum temperature
Continentality (MWMT - MCMT)
frost free period
number of frost free days
degree-days above 18 degrees C
degree-days below 0 degrees C
mean annual precipitation
mean annual summer precipitation
precipitation as snow
Summer heat:moisture index
Annual heat:moisture index
7.8
15.4
1.4
(18.0)
13.9
165.7
273.8
20.4
67.2
3,359.1
669.9
286.0
24.5
5.8
11.0
17.2
5.7
(9.2)
11.4
358.3
351.9
55.6
0.1
3,908.8
685.2
70.3
25.2
5.4
change
3.2
1.8
4.3
8.8
-18.3%
116.2%
28.5%
35.2
-67.1
16.4%
2.3%
-75.4%
2.9%
-6.6%
Dominant
Subzone Climate
% of the
CWHvm1
CWHvm-hot
44%
CWHvm1
34%
CWHvm1-warm
17%