Transcript Document

Evaluating the Creation of a
Parallel Non-Oil
Transportation System
Alan Drake,
Andrea M. Bassi
January 30, 2009
New America Foundation
The Millennium Institute
• MI is a not for profit organization based in
Arlington VA, USA.
• Established in 1983, MI has assisted over 45
countries to prepare strategic studies of
sustainable development possibilities.
• MI develops and disseminates advanced
analytical tools to support strategic planning on
critical issues.
• MI builds capacity in countries to use our tools to
help address critical issues.
Three Policy Changes
• Renewable Energy
• Urban Rail and related
Transportation Orientated Development
• Expand, Improve and Electrify Freight
Railroads
2030
vs. Business As Usual
• GDP: +13%
• CO2: -38%
• Oil Consumption: -24%
• Employment: +7.2 million (+5.2%)
2030 is NOT year of maximum impact
2030
vs. BAU
• GDP: +11.8%
• CO2: -3.8%
• Oil Consumption: -27.6%
• Employment: +6.7 million (+4.7%)
Subtract Renewable Energy
2030
vs. BAU
• GDP: +9.7%
• CO2: -6.2%
• Oil Consumption: -22%
• Employment: +5.5 million (+3.8%)
ONLY Electrified and Expanded Freight Rail
Maximum Commercial Effort
Assumed
• Maximum Production or Construction that
money alone can motivate
• Less than War Time Effort - People will do
more when national survival is at stake
• Alberta Tar Sands Development was an
example until a few months ago
Maximum Commercial Effort
• Electrify 36,000 miles of mainline railroads in
7 years, Add HV AC & HV DC transmission
• Doubletrack and improve mainline Railroads
• Remove bottlenecks like CREATE
• Electrify another 36,000 miles by 2030
• $250 - $300 billion
• 14,000 miles of Semi-HSR - $250 billion
• Urban Rail - $60 billion/yr for 20 years
• Wind, Solar PV and Pumped Storage - see ACORE
• Encourage Bicycling and Walkable Neighborhoods
Historical Accomplishments
• During WW II, National & Military Policy was
to ship everything possible by rail to save oil,
rubber and trucks for the war effort
• 90% of ton-miles by rail, rest by truck, barge
and pipeline during WW II
• Our goal is, over 20 years, to shift 85% of
truck ton-miles to rail
Strategically Relevant
US Railroads
Railroad Electrification
Proposals of the 1970s
?
Economics of Rail Electrification
• 20 BTUs Diesel > 1 BTU Electricity
– Freight 17 to 21:1 ratio
– Urban Rail, Indirect > Direct Savings
Consider DC without Metro today
• Positive Cost Elasticity of Supply for Rail
• Negative Cost Elasticity of Supply for Roads
• Domestic Electricity instead of Imported Oil
Electrical Consumption for
Transportation
• USA: 0.19%
• France: 2.3%
• USA 2030: ~4% (Without considering EVs)
EVs - 17% for personal transport
Longer Term Impacts
and
Systems Analysis
Challenges and Opportunities
Side Effects: Feedback Loops (1)
Relative GDP and Emissions
60.00%
40.00%
GDP
20.00%
CO2 Emissions
0.00%
-20.00%
Freight Scenario
-40.00%
-60.00%
Freight + Renewable Energy
Scenario
Side Effects: Feedback Loops (2)
Relative GDP and Emissions
60.00%
GDP
40.00%
CO2 Emissions
20.00%
0.00%
Freight
-20.00%
-40.00%
Freight + Renewable Energy
-60.00%
Side Effects: Tradeoffs (3)
Relative Oil Consumption
0.00%
Renewable Energy generation
increases average electricity
prices and limits the reduction in
oil consumption
-5.00%
-10.00%
-15.00%
Freight + Renewable Energy
-20.00%
-25.00%
Low electricity prices
stimulate the adoption
of e.g. hybrid vehicles
Freight Scenario
Conclusions
• There is no silver bullet to today’s problems;
• Electrified rail, especially when coupled with
renewable energy, is a good option;
• Side effects and unintended consequences
may arise and lead the system into
unwanted and uncharted territories;
• Identifying potential threats early enough,
allows to turn them into opportunities.
Thank you for your attention
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