Transcript EU - InnoTrans.net

AATS 2005 conference
- Advanced Automated Transport Systems
University of Bologna
November 7, 2005
Arno Mong Daastoel
InnoTrans, Norway
[email protected]
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EU’s
increasingly clogged transport
• and a PRT vision
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EU transport sector
• 20 % of GNP of most nations
• € 1000 billion market
• 2/3rd costs related to manpower
• Physical transport is a tech laggard
(compared to communication in general)
 Severe problems – on all levels
a) Space: local, regional, national, continental
b) Quality of life: Health, environment, time, expenses
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“The European Miracle”
1. City State Mercantilism
• A sensible experience: 15th CenturyIncreased life span
Huge growth per capita
• The Wealth of Cities
Population density – “friction and fire”
Many trades: Communication and Innovation
(- the internet will super fuel innovation)
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“The European Miracle”
2. National Mercantilism
• Ruler’s duty: Create & protect prosperity
• Create infrastructure
 Administration
 Standards: Grammar, Education, Law, Credit
 Transport
• “National Cities” through integrating transport
• “Artificial population density”
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Learning by Experience:
The Art of Borrowing
(i.e. espionage and theft of knowledge from the leader)
 Sumeria 3500-2500 BC
 Phoenicia 1500-500 BC
(+ China 500 BC-)
 Byzantium 667-1400 AD
 Italian cities 700-1600 AD
 The Netherlands 1500-1700
 Britain 1600-1900
 USA 1800-2000
 Germany, Russia, Japan 1863+
 Korea, Taiwan 1953 China, India 1989-
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Transport in History – Water
- large scale public works
• Irrigation
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India – Harappa culture 3000 BC
Egypt – King Menes 3000 BC
Sumeria – King Hammurabi 1760 BC
China - Karez & Dujiangyan systems 250 BC
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Egypt – Upper Nile 4000 BC, Nile to Red Sea 404 BC
Mesopotamia - Shatt-el-hai Canal – Eufrates and Tigris 2200 BC
China - Wild Goose Canal 600 BC, Grand Canal, 600 AD
Germany – Charlemagne: Rhine and Danube 793 AD - finished 1846,
new 1992
Netherlands’ single lock 1065, Flemish double lock 1364
France - Briare Canal 1604, Languedoc Canal 1666
Sweden – Mälaren, 1606, Göta Canal 1810
USA – Lake Michigan & Mississippi 1683, Erie Canal 1825
England, Manchester 1759
Germany – Kiel Canal 1784; Mittelland Canal, 1905 onwards
• Canals
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Transport in History – Urban
- large scale public works
• Water supply - networks
 Assyrian aqueducts 700 BC (longest was 80 km )
 Roman aqueducts – Aqua Appia 312 BC; Eifel 80 AD; Carthage 200 AD
• Sewers (plumbing)
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Sumeria 4000 BC (Iraq)
Harappa 3000 (Pakistan)
Minoan 2500 (Crete)
Rome 800 BC
China 200 BC
London (1668), Paris, Berlin, Hamburg 1840s AD
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Transport in History – Land
- large scale public works
• Road network
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Horse-drawn chariot introduced in Near East, 1700 BC
Persia – King Darius, 522 BC
Rome – Via Appia: 312 BC
China – Emperor Shihuangdi , 220 BC
Inca – 1100 AD
Automobile Highways – (1888) US, Germany, Sweden in 1930s
• Railroad networks (“Locomotive”)
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British Empire – (1803) 1825 onwards
USA – (1804) 1828; Trans-Continental 1869 – Lincoln, Dodge
Germany – (1815) 1835
Russia – Trans-Siberian 1903 - Alexander II & Witte
Sun Yat Sen, 1927 - today’s China: southern Trans-Eurasian ++
Automated: New York 1962 (Grand Central Shuttle)
• Air – 1900s
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Transport in History – Urban
- large scale public works
• Trams
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Horse - 1828 USA: Baltimore, New York, New Orleans
Steam – 1873
Electric – 1881: Berlin
Elevated Steam – 1868: New York; Chicago 1863
Elevated Electric – 1894: New York
Trolley bus – 1881: Richmond, USA
• Subway
 Steam - 1850s: New York; London 1863; Istanbul 1875
 Electric – 1890: London; Budapest 1896; Boston 1897
 Automated – London 1968, 1987; Lille 1983
• Elevated Monorail
 Horse – 1825 Chesnut, England
 Steam - 1876 Philadelphia, Listowel & Ballybunion, England 1888
 Electric - Wuppertal 1901; Genoa 1914; Swedish-German ALWEG 1952; Tokyo
1957; Disneyland (ALWEG) 1959; Turin 1961; Seattle 1962; Tampa 1971
 Automated AND Personal - Morgantown 1975; Heathrow, London 2007?
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Transport in History – Symbols
- Preconditions for Communication
• ‘National’ Standards
 Alphabet – Sumeria 3500 BC
 ‘Grammar’, mathematics, calendar and time –
Sumeria
• Media
 Books by mechanical mass printing
- China 868; Germany 1448 AD
 Newspapers – China, Roman Empire etc.; Europe 1600s AD
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Transport in History – Media
- large scale public works
• ‘Physical’ Networks
 Sound, light and smoke signals
 Postal network - China, Persia, Rome etc. - Europe 1600s AD
• Wired Networks
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Telegraph – 1837 (Morse)
Phone –1890s (1860 Meucci)
Fax –1970s (1843)
Internet – 1990s (1960s)
• Wireless Networks
 Radio broadcasting – 1897 (1873)
 TV broadcasting – 1928 (1885)
 Radio and telegraph - two-way communication – 1900
 Mobile phone – 1980s (1970s)
 Wireless Internet – 1990s
(1890s)
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EU after 1989
- Fall of “Berlin Wall”
• For EU to integrate (- into one efficient market)
EU needs
• Standards
 Taxation (“harmony”)
 Finance
 Transport
• New transport links
 East-West
+ old problem:
 North-South, through the mountains
- Pyrenees and the Alps
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EU White Paper 2001:
“European transport policy for 2010: time to decide”
• “Transport is the essential driver”
- of industry, trade, way of life, EU integration
• After 1992 - no harmonious integration
Result:
• Growing congestion, delays, and pollution
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Today - EU suffocates
Transport, increased share of GDP
– substituting welfare
Increasing congestion chokes EU
 Continent less competitive
 Harms the environment
Harms general living standards
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EU-congestion affects
• Road : 10% of network: 7 500 km
• Rail : 20% of network: 16 000 km
- Freight: 18 kmph, poor punctuality
• Air : 30 % > 15 minutes delayed
Cost : 0,5 % of GDP p/a ; 1% in 2010
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Growth : 2001- 2010
- if nothing is done
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2 x cars in 30 years, + 3 mill per year
Passengers + 43 %
Goods + 50 %
Sea: + 41 %,
Rail: 8 %
Road: 44 %
Waterways: 4 %
Co2 : 50 % 1990-2010 (84 % from road)
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EU policy will (“wishful thoughts”)
• Decouple growth – in GNP & transport
• Shift mode : transport to rail
• Eliminate bottlenecks : invest
• Place user in centre
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EU Goals (defensive and modest)
• Freight +38 % instead of 50 %
• Passenger + 21 % instead of 43 %
• 200 mill ton reduction of CO2
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Urban transport
• Better use of cars
• Improve rail tremendously
• Increased cost of transport transferred to
improved quality, corridors
BUT:
EU can only propose, local authorities decide
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EU policies’ 60 measures
• Tougher controls, penalties, uniform law, better information
• “Motorways of the Sea”: Simplify harbour rules, one-stop shop
• Waterway link to rivers, tech standardisation, improved navigation
• Short-sea shipping, start-up aid for logistics
• Marco Polo (intermodal freight - replaces PACT): € 30 mill p/a
• Galileo (radio navigation)
• Single sky from 2004, common rules, “Eurocontrol”, intermodality
• Substitute fuel: bio: 2 % in 2005, 6 % in 2010 (by tax incentives)
• Standard tax on fuel
• Fund construction of missing links in corridors
• Integrate rail in internal market, liberalisation
• International freight trains, today: 18 km/h, lack of punctuality
• TEN & HST (Trans-European Network & High Speed Trains)
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Iberian HST, Rail through Pyrenees,
- Stuttgart-Vienna, Denmark-Germany (Fehmarn), Straubing-Vilishofen,
- Verona-Naples, Bologna-Milan
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Comments
- on EU Goals & Measures
• Goals
 Too modest
 Matters will deteriorate
• Measures
 Only negative
(will increase costs and inefficiency of the economy: less competitive)
 Patchworks - on old technologies
(high-tech is used to ‘polish’ old solutions)
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Single Market – late 1980s initiatives
Main architect: Jaques Delors et.al.
(then EU Commissioner, form. Finance Minister of France, under Mitterand)
1) Customs Union (model: German Zollverein, 1818-1888)
2) Harmonious taxation & regulations (contracts etc.)
3) Common money - EMU 1989, €uro 1992 (2002)
4) TEN 1992 (Trans-European Networks)
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The continental TEN project
• 1993: “TEN- Trans-European Networks”
- 14 projects under H. Christoffersen
• Italy 2003: ”The Tremonti Plan”
• Austria 2006 ?
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2003: Italy as EU chairman:
”The Tremonti Plan”
• FT: “Transport is key to growth, EU says”
• 20 bn Euros for TENs
• € 70bn infrastructure spending plan
= ”prime pumping”
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Coming EU mid-term review
(of White Paper - preliminary development 2004)
• Freight up > than GDP growth
• People up < than GDP growth
• NB! - today practically zero growth
• Dramatic change - when growth picks up
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Traffic development
- preliminary development 2004
• Air
67 % - since 1993!
• Railways steadily
- Railway freight
• Cars
but high-speed
, especially freight
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Emmisions, accidents & congestion
-preliminary development 2004
• Emissions
Nitrogen, still problems with small particles (Diesel)
• Accidents
1993-2004: 70.000 to 43.000
- but still 20.000 too much (relative comp. to Norway)
• Congestion
- Increased on roads due to freight
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Improvement depends on
connecting two issues
1) Innovative Transport
+
2) Innovative Finance
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Innovative Transport - 1
• EU support ?
- Solve freight problem
(door-to-door - as with transport of people)
• Plan in principle – long term
- New national networks “from the bottom”
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Innovative Transport -2
• Utilise tech. potential
1)
2)
Automation
On-vehicle switching
• Integrate:
1)
2)
Modes: People & Goods etc.
Levels: Local, regional, national, continental networks
(1x1 meter beam can carry 1 ton/meter = even containers and mineral ore)
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Public goods & responsibility
1) Concentrated costs
- like private goods
2) Widely distributed benefits
- in space and time
- unlike private goods
 Systematic under-investment
- if market alone is responsible
 Governments & EU must act
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Use PRT for ‘Prime Pumping’ EU
• Historical parallels
 Railroads & Telegraph
– UK, USA, Germany, Russia etc.
 Highways and automobiles
- USA, Germany, Sweden etc.
 Internet
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(Over-)Mature Industrial Nations
- in Europe
• High social spending; pensions and health
• Little investment in infrastructure
Stagnating growth
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Mature exceptions
• USA Deindustrialisation
 Unsocial
 Unsustainable bubble to pop
(real estate, derivatives, triple deficits)
• Japan: Continued industrialisation
 Investment in infrastructure
 No outsourcing of advanced processes
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Developing Nations
• High growth: Taiwan, China etc.
High investment in infrastructure
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creates
 “physical trickle down”:
high general activity and improved efficiency
 “Transport – the carpet of industry”
 Transport as efficiency-improving “locomotive” of the economy
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Financing EU’s grand projects
• Both Delors and Tremonti plans:
• Finance through EIB (European Investment Bank)
• Problem! Lack of:
1) National will and financial ability
2) EU funding sources
(in member states)
(ECB is disallowed from printing money AND channel them to
infrastructure - (ECB = European Central Bank)
• Therefore, use traditional private financing: Bonds
 “Crowding out” effect (i.e. draining and pushing out private investment)
 Loose ‘spark’ from prime pumping
 Loose extra growth
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Traditional Finance
- for infrastructure and growth
• Public
Fund from tax revenue
• Mixed Private/Public
Toll stations
Lease
BOT versions
– (Build Operate Transfer)
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Mixed Innovative Finance
- for infrastructure and growth
Shared risk and profit:
Microfinance
Islamic banking
Partnerships Ltd. - since 2001
+
Land taxation
(Henry George etc.)
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National Innovative Finance
- for infrastructure and growth
1) Print money (and: !!)
2) Channel to productive purposes
- cf. Ragnar Frisch: The Oslo channelling model
 Growth without inflation
- due to rise in efficiency and production
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Conclusion
The solutions are at hand and “This great enterprise will pay for itself, and
all that is required of the Governments can
be expressed in one word, and that is -ENERGY.”
(Friedrich List, The National System of Political Economy, 1841, p.435)
Arno Mong Daastoel
InnoTrans, Norway: [email protected] ph: +47. 6300 8590
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