Transcript Transition Network - Soil Association Conference

Peak oil, climate change
and transition towns
James Samuel
National Facilitator
Transition Towns NZ Aotearoa
www.transitiontowns.org.nz
Agenda

Peak Oil and its effects

Climate Change (brief)

Responses at different levels
– global, national, local, personal

PO + CC ≠ “business as usual”

What is a transition town

Examples and achievements so far

Q&A discussion
Peak Oil – fields, regions, world

we’ll never “run out” of oil

we’re running out of cheap, plentiful oil

oil underpins
– industrial development
– agriculture
– economics
– population

about ½ way through it…

it’s going to decline
Peak Oil – discovery
Before you extract it, you have to find it
Peak Oil – official numbers

EIA - Energy Information Administration

IEA - International Energy Agency
Peak Oil – what’s it like?

Terminal decline

Demand destruction

Examples:
– 1990s: North Korea
– 1990s: Cuba
– 2000: UK fuel crisis
– Now: Poor countries
Peak Oil – happening now
(if you’re poor)

Asia

Africa

Americas
– Nepal
– Uganda
– Argentina
– Pakistan
– Zimbabwe
– Nicaragua
– Bangladesh
– Ghana
– Chile
– Sri Lanka
– Nigeria
– Costa Rica
– Philippines
– Senegal
– Dominican Republic
– China
– Kenya
– India
– Gambia
– Iraq
– Vietnam
– Philippines
– Iran

Middle East
Climate Change
the end of the debate
The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states:

Warming of the climate
system is unequivocal

Most of the observed
increase in globally
averaged temp's since
the mid-20th century is
very likely (confidence
level >90%) due to the
observed increase in
human greenhouse
gas concentrations
Upsala Glacier, Argentina
Climate Change
weather extremes
Fossil Fuels, Carbon,
and Economic Growth
What can be done?

Global
– Oil Depletion Protocol
– Contraction and Convergence
– Kyoto

National
– TEQs (energy rationing)

Community
– Transition Towns, cities, villages, rural

Personal
– “The work that reconnects”
– Lessons from addiction counselling
Can we respond?

Going up the energy slope, we used
– ingenuity
– creativity
– adaptability
– cooperation

Going back down…
– if we’re early enough
– if we’re cooperative
– the future could be a
whole lot better…
What’s stopping us?

Myths of today
– Technology will solve all our problems
– There is no alternative
– Civilisation is the pinnacle of human achievement
– Living standards are rising
– New, better, faster, shinier ____ are just around the corner
– Humans are selfish and greedy by nature
– The market will solve it

If our water comes from a tap,
and our food comes from a supermarket
– We will defend the systems which sustain us
Where are we going?
Techno-Fantasy
Peak
Energy?
• - Energy & Resource Use
• - Population
• - Pollution
Green-Tech
Stability
Earth
Post
Mad Max
Collapse
Pre-industrial
culture
Historical Time
Agriculture
10.000yrs BP
Industrial
Baby Boom
Revolution
stewardship
Future Time
Great Grand Children
Who’s doing creative, orderly
energy descent?
43 Towns at
last count
How are they organising?
Transition Model

Understanding:
PO + CC = The end of “business as usual”
 Adaptability, Creativity
 NOW

7 Buts
 12 Steps
 Transition Network

Peak Oil & Climate Change

Climate Change mitigations must:


Peak Oil mitigations must:


reduce emissions (reduce oil usage)
build local resilience
Which means doing it closer to home - re-localisation
 consumption
 production
 work
 play
Our choice…


We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future,
whether we want to or not.
Far better to ride that wave rather be engulfed by it.