Transcript Preparing for Peak Oil - Community Action Derby

Transition
From Oil Dependency to Community Resilience
Transition Derby UK.
Presented by :
Dave Ackroyd
So what is Transition?


Began 5 years ago in Totnes
Growing fast now over 2000
communities worldwide


Vision of our future with
less fossil energy
Positive vision, of a
happier, healthier, safer
place to live
What others are doing
England – Israel – 1
270
Italy – 4
Scotland – Mexico – 1
23
Netherlands
Wales – 32 – 1
Northern
New
Ireland – 3 Zealand –
Ireland – 13 34
Australia – South
27
Africa – 2
Argentina – Spain – 6
1
Sweden – 4
Addicted to Fossil Fuels
The developed
world gets about
80% of its energy
from Fossil Fuels
95% of our food is dependent on fossil fuels for
fertiliser and pesticides (Oil is ancient sunlight)
and it’s not Sustainable…

Climate
Change

End of
Cheap
Energy

Energy
Security
Climate Change
Currently at ~388ppm
& increasing 2ppm
every year
Must reduce to below
350ppm
Requires 80-90% cuts
in today's level of
emission
Proof of Global Warming
Underwear through the ages
Victorian ---------
Today
Peak Oil
Hubbert’s Curve
Dr M. King Hubbert, a Shell Oil geologist
In 1956, he predicted that US Oil production
would peak between 1965 and 1970
USA
First to Peak
US oil production peaked in 1971
Not a Theory
43 of the 58 largest oil-producing countries
are passed their peak.
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009
End of Cheap Oil
Oil discovery peaked in 1965 – 4 decades ago.
We consume 5 barrels of oil for every 1 we discover
The Shortfall
Source:
IEA World
Energy
Outlook
“It is definitely depressing, more than depressing, I would say
alarming… just to stay where we are in 20 years, means to
find and develop 4 new Saudi Arabias, and this is a major
challenge!”
– Fatih Birol, Chief Economist , IEA Sept 2010
Peak Oil Warnings
UKERC warns that, almost unequivocally, peak
production will occur before 2030, with a
significant risk of this happening before 2020
- UKERC Dec 2009
By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could
entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the
shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MB/d
–US Joint Operating Environment report, Feb 2010
Shortages in the supply of vital goods could
arise… for example in food supplies… Price
shocks could be seen in almost every industry
and throughout all stages of the supply chain.
- The Bundeswehr Transformation Center, Aug 2010
Energy Security
We will be importing 80% of our energy by 2020
Energy Security
Where are we going to get our energy?
• From Russia
with Love
• Invade an oil
rich country
• Cosy up to
dictatorships
Replacing Conventional Oil
“There isn't anything conceivable that could replace
conventional oil, in the same quantity and energy density:
• We can't mine oil sands in sufficient quantity because
there isn't enough water to process them.
• We can't grow bio-fuels because there would be no land
left to grow food.
• Solar, hydro, wind, and geothermal don't yield enough
energy.
• Hydrogen (from water) takes more energy to make than
it can yield.
• Coal has massive climate change implications and
supply will peak soon too.
• Nuclear too little too late and is a derivative of oil.”
Source: Miller, BP Exploration UK, Jan 2004
From Oil Dependency
to Community Resilience


Climate change makes transition an
imperative,
Peak Oil makes it inevitable.
Our future will be energy constrained,
it makes sense to plan for it.
Initial Symptoms of
Peak Oil Awareness
Denial
A Sense of Bewilderment
Fear
Depression
Outbreaks of Nihilism
Irrational Grasping at
Unfeasible Solutions
Cultural Visions
Our visions of a future with out oil tend
to fall into two camps:
• Techno-Utopia

Something wonderful will happen and
we’ll discover an everlasting source of
energy.
• Or Armageddon
 A mad dash by nations to
secure resources.
 Wars. Pestilence.
 Economic Collapse
 Climate catastrophe
Transition
Opportunity for a better Society
1.
2.
3.
4.
Positivity - Envision a positive, happier,
healthier, and safer place to live
Resilience - We have lost the ability to cope
with energy shocks
Empowerment - We have to act for ourselves
and we have to act now
Creativity – build communities that are more
enriching, satisfying and connected.
Re-localise
Food Production
• rapidly expand local food
production,
• proactively reduce fossil fuel
use in the food system,
• promote local food networks
that bring producers and
consumers together.
Education
• Increase number of smaller
local schools
• Emphasize vocational
subjects, building, cooking,
horticulture
Healthcare
• Promote local healthcare
centres and the local
production of medicines
Forest Garden Schools
Silverhills
Primary
School
Creating a food forest
Transition Derby
Thank you.
www.transitionderby.co.uk