Transcript – Health in a Low Carbon Future

Impact of Peak Oil on
Health and Medicine
Pamela A Gray, PhD
[email protected]
www.transition-health.com
Overview
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What is Peak Oil?
How does oil relate to health?
How is medicine dependent on oil?
Issues with the medical system
Global and local responses
Local solutions and actions
What is Peak Oil?
• The maximum rate of global oil production,
after which it will irreversibly decline
• Oil discovery peaked in the 1960s
• Production peak to follow in 40 - 60 years
• Not the end of oil, but the end of cheap oil
Peak Oil
Peak oil is a geologically imposed end to the
fossil fuel era, whose first manifestation is the
peaking of oil extraction, followed by natural
gas and then coal.
Indicators of Oil Problems
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Prices rising to all time high
Demand exceeding supply
Oil extraction rate flat
Wars for control of oil
Press raising issues
Fears of economic collapse
The Press Wakes Up
“The age of oil could
be ending without our
really being aware of
it” - NY Times, March
2006
“The doubling of oil prices in the past
couple of years is not an anomaly but
a picture of the future. Peak oil is at
hand” – US Army Corps of Engineers,
2006
“The world has never faced a problem
like this. Previous energy transitions
(wood to coal, and coal to oil) were
gradual and evolutionary; oil peaking
will be abrupt and revolutionary.”
Hirsch Report to DOE, 2005
Peak Oil
• Oil depletion is a geological fact
• There are as yet no scalable, fully
appropriate alternatives or substitutes
Impact of Oil Depletion
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Drastic reductions in food production
Inadequate heating and cooling systems
Breakdown of transport systems
Problems in distribution of goods
Disruptions in water treatment systems
Increased unemployment
Overload of healthcare systems
Rationing – fuel, food, healthcare
The Precautionary Principle
When an activity raises the threat of harm
to HUMAN HEALTH or the
environment, precautionary measures
should be taken even if some cause
and effect relationships are not fully
established scientifically.
What Is Health?
Freedom from disease
A condition of optimal well-being
A state of complete physical, mental
and social well-being, not consisting only
of the absence of disease or infirmity (WHO)
Factors Influencing Health
Air that we breathe
Water that we drink
Food that we eat
Waste products
Exercise
Work
Home environment
Relationships
Sleep/rest
Being in nature
Fossil Fuels and Health Factors
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Air – pollution
Water – pollution, purification, transport
Food – pesticide, transport, packaging
Housing – building, heating, cooking
Work – transport, technology
Relationships – communications, transport
Waste – transport, incineration, purification
Oil and Air Pollution
• Burning of fossil fuels results
in elevated rates of infant
mortality, asthma,
cardiovascular problems and
respiratory ailments.
• Reducing air pollution in 4 of
the world’s largest cities
could prevent 64,000
premature deaths and 37
million lost workdays over the
next 2 decades
Oil and Water Pollution
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Pollution from oil industry
Pollution from manufacturing processes
Pollution from domestic waste
Leaching from plastic into water
Health effects include: premature deaths,
cancers, birth defects, bronchitis, skin
diseases, asthma etc.
Oil and Food Pollution
• Pesticides, additives, colourings, flavourings
• Dioxins in meat, dairy, poultry fruit and
vegetable
• Irradiation reduces nutritional content
• Plastics used in packaging migrate into food,
• Health effects include: allergies, obesity,
immune disorders, cancer, skin diseases,
birth defects, nutritional deficiency problems,
mental illness…
Fossil Fuel Depletion and Food
• Petroleum is integral to the cultivation
processing and distribution of our food.
• “The impact of energy availability on diet
will range between the ideal of varied
organic food produced in a low energy,
closed system requiring minimum
transport – and the shock of no food at
all.”
Oil and the Home
• Oil-derived hazardous chemicals in
household goods – cleaning products,
toiletries, paints, carpets, furniture building
materials
• Up to 500 man-made chemicals in the
human body
• Health effects include sterility, nerve
damage, allergies, endocrine disruption,
immune disorders, cancers…
Petroleum Products in the Home
• Petrochemical air fresheners
• Used by 40% of households
• Produce headaches &
depression in mothers,
earache and diarrhoea in kids
• Contain dangerous volatile
organic compounds
• Problems disputed by
manufacturers
Reported in Times, 2004.
Rise in Childhood Diseases
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Type 2 diabetes in children as young as 10
Childhood obesity, underlying other diseases
Childhood asthma increasing dramatically
Autism at national emergency level
Pediatric MS a silent epidemic
Increase in birth defects linked to
petrochemicals
Fossil Fuels & Health
Bad news: Pollution from fossil fuels produces
disorders, illnesses and premature death.
Good news: Reducing fossil fuel use will result
in improvements in health.
When Things Go Wrong
• Consult friends and family
• Visit conventional medical practitioners
• Try complementary and alternative
practitioners
• Attend specialised support groups
• Use self help techniques
Oil and Medicine
Medical Oil Dependencies
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Pharmaceuticals / Drugs
Energy intensive hospital procedures
Medical materials - plastics, gloves, syringes …
Direct energy requirements – machines, radiation,
storage, heating / cooling, sterilisation
• Transport - medical supplies, patients, doctors, food
• Emergency services – ambulances, helicopters
Pharmaceutical Industry
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Pharmaceuticals – $643 billion global market in 2006
The main treatment modality in NHS (10% of costs)
About 50% are not taken as prescribed (waste issues)
4th leading cause of death in industrial nations
Driven by profits not by improving human health
Developed by same investment groups that control
the global petrochemical industries.
Pharmaceuticals & Oil
Phenol, acids and anhydrides, alkanolamines and aldehydes
Used for analgesics, antihistamines, antibiotics, antibacterials,
sedatives, tranquilisers
Polyethylene glycols, hydroxyethyl celluloses and water-soluble
ethylene oxide polymers
Used as tablet binders and pill coatings
Other: Essential uses in pharmaceutical products, from aspirin to
penicillin moulds. Common medications may require ethanol to extract
the antibiotic agent.; polyethylene glycol is used in rectal suppositories;
phenylpropanolamine is used in cough syrups.
Medical Materials & Oil
In instruments and supplies:
Use of plastics in all disposables used for maintaining sterile conditions;
specialised plastics used in heart valves; common items such as
isopropanol (rubbing alcohol); polyethylene and poly-vinyl acetate used
in tubing, sheeting, splints, prostheses, blood bags, disposable syringes
and catheters
Sterilisation of equipment uses ethylene oxide; ammonium nitrate is a
basic ingredient in “quick cold” applications. Nitrogen mustards are a
long-standing part of chemotherapy treatment for cancer; propylene
glycol is used for obtaining specimens for sputum cytology.
In all specialties:
Radiological dyes and films, dermatological creams, Sigmoidoscopes,
speculum probes – in endotracheal tubes, intravenous tubing, oxygen
masks.
(Glenn D. The Hidden Energy Crisis, Texas Medicine (72), 1976)
“The medical profession
must eventually be forced
to consider whether in an
age of fuel scarcity it will
be possible to maintain at
their present level
hospital procedures
consuming large amounts
of energy”
Loraine, J.A. in the
Lancet, September 1973
Electrical Blackout August 2003
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50 million people in US without power
Costs estimated at $6 billion
Trouble with hospital back-up generators
Many donor organs lost
Operations under flashlight or terminated
Air conditioning suspended
Emergency evacuation of patients
A wake-up call – but quickly forgotten
Low Energy Medical Systems
• Alternative Medicine Chinese Medicine, Indian
Ayurvedic Medicine,
Homeopathy
• Complementary Medicine Acupuncture, Touch
Therapies, Counselling
Issues with Medical Services
• Escalating costs of medical care
• Little success with chronic conditions
(asthma, diabetes, heart disease, cancer)
• Few cures for depression
• Competition for medical resources
• Little time for consultations
• Increase in medically induced illness
• Disillusion with the medical profession
Medical Industry Responses
Global
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WHO Global Strategy
Integrated Health Care Movement
Wellness Industry
Focus on Prevention
UK
• Practice-based commissioning
• Expert Patient Programme
• Healthy Living Initiative
Integrated Health Care Movement
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Combine conventional medicine and CAM
Improve client / practitioner relationship
Treat whole person – mind / body / soul
Encourage self care and community support
Focus on wellness, not illness
Complementary and Alternative
Medicine (CAM)
• Homeopathy, acupuncture, herbal
medicines, touch therapies, counselling
• Based on ancient medical practices
• Not generally dependent on fossil fuels
• Treats whole person – mind, body, spirit
• Cost-effective – add to NHS?
• How should it be funded?
Self Treatments
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Exercise, nutrition
Deep breathing and relaxation
Meditation and guided imagery
Yoga, Chi Gung, Tai Chi
Positive thinking and prayer
Self medication: spending on CAM is
£1.6 billion/year, OTC medicines
£2.3 billion/year
UK Practice Based Commissioning
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Central management of NHS not working
Local control handed to Primary Care
Better for health of community
Population-based budgets planned
Allows for integration of other modalities
Not enough funds for everything?
Expert Patients’ Program (EPP)
• UK Government initiative
• Help people with long term conditions
maintain health and quality of life
• Lay led self management courses to
encourage development of skills
• Taught by volunteers
Healthy Living Initiative
• UK Government program to encourage
people to lead healthier lives
• Focused on families with young children
• Aiming to tackle childhood obesity
• Encourages 5-A-Day eating
(www.5aday.nhs.uk)
• Promoting more active lifestyles
West Cornwall Healthy
Living Centre
• Health professionals, voluntary and
community sector organisations and
individuals working together
• Web-based information and support,
recommendations of services,
project development and support
www.wchlc.org.uk
Reducing Our Oil Dependency
Without petrol for cars, we can
walk or ride a bicycle.
BUT
What are the alternatives for the
health system?
World War II
• Oil, food & clothes rationed. Government
mandates for nutritional supplements
• Medical facilities greatly restricted, women
trained to offer basic medical help
• Medicines in short supply – pharmacists
made up old remedies.
• Ethical decisions, demonstrations, armed
guards
• People forced to be self-sufficient (Dig for
Victory)
Cuba
• Education and medical system free
• Primary Care Focus after Revolution
• ‘Special Period’ - oil imports cut after
fall of Russia
• Healthy low fat, nearly vegetarian
diet and outdoor lifestyle (cycling,
walking..)
• 1 doctor/167 people, 60% women
doctors, living where they work
• Life expectancy same as US, infant
mortality below that of US
Transition Movement Response
to Impact of Peak Oil
Plan to work together to define,
implement and promote reduced fossil
fuel dependent medical systems in
local communities in anticipation of oil
depletion.
Transition Action Plan
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Identify the future health system we want
Back-cast from the future to today
Define an implementation program
Focus on wellness programs, not illness
Educate on preventative methods
Secure funding for new programs
Encourage self and community help
Specific Actions Now
• Localise medicine as much as possible
• Identify medical resources available locally
(conventional & complementary / alternative)
• Partner with existing health initiatives
• Work with renewable energy providers to ensure
support for critical care
• Develop and promote “green” herbal medicines
• Increase exercise programs – chi gung, tai chi, yoga,
swimming, walking, cycling …
• Support local organic food production
• Teach local people to treat minor problems
• Remember ancient wisdom, folk remedies
TP Health & Medicine Group
• Open to all interested people
• Formed to answer questions of how to shift
to a low energy, integrated health system
• Aims to identify health assets, healthcare
professionals, specialties, art therapies,
working in partnerships with others
• Building an energy descent action plan for
localised provision of medical care for all
Discussion Points
• Ethics
– Decision-making when resources are scarce
• Self Care
– What can people safely do for themselves?
• Specialised Patient Groups
– What specialties and what support is needed?
• Secondary Care
– Based in Centres of Excellence?
– Alternative energy supplies for critical needs?
• Do We Have an Emergency Plan?
Impact of Peak Oil on
Health and Medicine
Pamela A Gray, PhD
[email protected]
www.transition-health.com