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Transition
Walthamstow
Paul Gasson
020 8520 0648 / 07979-767274
[email protected]
Tonight
• What is Transition all about? (15 minutes)
• Mapping exercise and discussion (15 minutes)
• Open floor - hot topics (10 mins)
• Tea break (5 mins)
• Visioning exercise: What do we want for
Walthamstow? (30 mins)
• Next steps: (10 minutes)
Transition
Fundamentals
• Peak oil
• Climate change
• Transition model
• (Some local projects)
Peak oil - what is it?
A typical oil field
Forties field
UK sector
North Sea
The basic dynamics of oil production:
• A steep initial increase, a production plateau and then a slow but
irreversible decline.
• Once the peak is past there are many techniques and
technologies that can brought to maximise the declining output, but
it is a losing battle and production will never return to it former
levels.
Global oil discovery & production
When will peak oil happen?
Oil producers (98)
Post peak oil producers (64)
www.lastoilshock.com
Where we get our energy
Source: ExxonMobile web site
Why is oil so important?
How many men does it take to push a car?
What do we use oil for?
Transition Training 2007
Economic growth & energy use
What is climate change?
Is it proven?
What are the main problems
with out of control CC?
CO2 levels over past 60,000 years
381 ppm
2006
The need for an urgent response
Responses to Peak Oil &
Climate Change
PEAK OIL
PO+CC=
Systems Re-think
• Burn everything!
 relaxed drilling
regulations
 biofuels
 tar sands & nonconventional oils
• Resource
nationalism
• Resource Wars
• Planned
Relocalisation
• Energy Descent
Pathways
• Local Resilience
CLIMATE CHANGE
• Climate engineering
• Carbon capture and
storage
• International
emissions trading
• Climate adaptation
• Nuclear power
Transition ‘recognitions’
1. Life with dramatically lower energy
consumption is inevitable.
2. Our communities lack the resilience to
withstand the severe energy shocks that will
follow peak oil.
3. We have to act collectively and we have to
act now.
4. By unleashing the collective genius of those
around us we can build better ways of living.
Fundamental principles
• Key goals: reducing energy use & carbon
emissions
• Reskilling: relearning lost skills, mending
rather than buying new, …
• Satisfying our intrinsic desire for community:
William Morris 'fellowship is life, and lack of
fellowship is death'
• Catalyst: with no fixed answers, solutions
are community led
• Systems resilience: tight feedback, diversity,
social capital, innovation, …
• Permaculture principles
Why the transition model works
• Visioning of a positive future
• Awareness raising - decide on appropriate
response
• Inclusion - everyone is needed, every skill is
valuable
• Resilience - building strong local communities
• Credible, appropriate solutions
• Psychological insights - inner & outer
transitions needed
Psychology of change
• Apocalyptic approach
– depression, apathy
• Transition approach
– addiction (stuck patterns causing harm),
detox from oil
– hope, positive vision, proactivity
– community connection & inspiration
– inner and outer: be the change you want
to see
– joyful, fun
Key Transition stages
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•
•
•
•
•
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Set up a steering group
Raise awareness
Official launch
Form groups e.g. food, energy, transport, economy
Public meetings - open space
Practical projects
Facilitate reskilling
Honour the elders
Energy descent action plan
Totnes: Nut tree capital of Britain
• Plantations of modern nut
varieties are much more
productive than similar areas of
arable crops. Wheat commonly
produces between 2-10
tons/acre on good soils.
• On much poorer soils chestnuts
have an annual yield of 7-11
tons, pecans 9-11 tons,
hazelnuts 9-12 tons, and
walnuts 10-15 tons.’
Richard Mabey, ‘Fencing Paradise’.
Lewes pound
The Lewes Pound is driven by three main
considerations:
• Economic: Money spent locally stays
within the community & is re-used many
times, multiplying wealth and building
local economy resilience (NEF)
• Environmental: Supporting local
businesses and goods reduces the need
for transport & minimises carbon
footprint.
• Social: By spending money in local
outlets we strengthen the relationships
between local shopkeepers and the
community.
…
Our choice
• We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future whether we
want to or not.
• Far better to ride that wave rather than getting engulfed by it.