Transcript Part 1 - Transition US

PEAK OIL
THE LONG EMERGENCY
GLOBAL
WARMING
ECONOMIC
INSTABILITY
Today
1970
Oil producers (98)
www.lastoilshock.com
“The world has never faced a problem
like this. Without massive mitigation…
the problem will be pervasive and will not
be temporary. Previous energy transitions
were gradual and evolutionary.
Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.”
The Hirsch Report
U.S. Department of Energy
February 2005
“It is quite likely that the time interval before
the global peak occurs will be briefer than
the period required for societies
to adapt themselves painlessly
to a different energy regime.”
—Richard Heinberg
Peak Everything:
Waking Up to a Century of Declines
“Predictions are always difficult,
especially about the future.”
—Neils Bohr, Quantum Physicist
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After peaking of global oil production,
exports cease in only nine years, far faster
than overall oil production.
Exports decline at an accelerating rate,
starting at about -13% and ending at about
-48%, averaging about -29% per year over the
8 years of decline.
Only about 10% of the oil produced after the
peak is ever exported!
“We have at most ten years—not ten years to
decide upon action, but ten years to alter
fundamentally the trajectory of global
greenhouse gas emissions.”
—James Hansen
Director
Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA
“The second half of the Age of Oil now dawns
and will be marked by the decline of oil and all
that depends on it, including financial capital. It
heralds the collapse of the present financial
system, and the related political structures… I
am speaking of a second Great Depression.”
Colin Campbell, Ph.D.
ASPO Conference 2003
“The world oil production peak represents an
unprecedented economic crisis that will wreak
havoc on national economies, topple
governments, alter national boundaries,
provoke military strife, and challenge the
continuation of civilized life.”
James Howard Kunstler
The Long Emergency
“The apparent fact that the world has reached
the end of economic growth as we have
known it is momentous information. It needs
to get to as many people as possible,
and as soon as possible, if we collectively
are going to be able to plan for contraction
and manage the transition away from
fossil fuels without succumbing to rapid,
chaotic civilizational collapse…”
—Richard Heinberg
Post Carbon Institute
PEAK OIL
THE LONG EMERGENCY
GLOBAL
WARMING
ECONOMIC
INSTABILITY
“We have trouble visualizing decline as positive,
but this simply reflects the dominance of our
prior culture of growth… The real issue
of our age is how we make
a graceful and ethical descent.”
David Holmgren
Permaculture: Principles and Pathways
Beyond Sustainability
“I use the term ‘descent’ as the least loaded
word that honestly conveys the inevitable,
radical reduction of material consumption
and/or human numbers that will characterize
the declining decades and centuries of fossil
fuel abundance and availability.”
—David Holmgren
Permaculture: Principles and Pathways
Beyond Sustainability
“It’s like growing old. You can’t solve that.
However, you can choose to respond
respectfully, wisely and imaginatively to it, so
that even ageing can become a source of
unexpected riches.”
Richard Heinberg
“Let us give thanks for this extraordinary
period of human history we lived through. Let
us recognize that we are moving into a new
phase of history. Let’s be brave and wise
about it, and prepare to move on.”
James Howard Kunstler
The Long Emergency
“The Long Emergency is an opportunity to
pause, to think through our present course, and
to adjust to a saner path for the future. We had
best face facts: we really have no choice. The
Long Emergency is a horrible predicament. It is
also a wonderful opportunity to do a lot better.
Let’s not squander this moment.”
—Albert Bates (paraphrased)
The Post Petroleum Survival Guide and Cookbook
“Inherent within the challenges of peak oil
and climate change is an extraordinary
opportunity to reinvent, rethink
and rebuild the world around us.”
—Rob Hopkins
The Transition Handbook
“If you look at the science about what is
happening on earth and aren’t pessimistic, you
don’t understand the data. But if you meet the
people who are working to restore this earth
and the lives of the poor, and you aren’t
optimistic, you haven’t got a pulse.”
—Paul Hawken
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The challenge of global climate change
makes a shift away from fossil fuels
necessary for planetary survival.
The impending peak in oil and gas
production means that the transition is
inevitable.
Our only choice is whether to proactively
undertake the transition now—or later.
Transition Initiatives make the transition
feasible, viable and attractive.
“I believe that a lower-energy, more localized
future, in which we move from being
consumers to being producer/consumers,
where food, energy and other essentials are
locally produced, local economies are
strengthened and we have learned to live more
within our means is a step towards something
extraordinary, not a step away from something
inherently irreplaceable.”
—Rob Hopkins
The Transition Handbook
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Local production of food, energy and goods
Local development of currency, government
and culture
Reducing consumption while improving
environmental and social conditions
Developing exemplary communities that can
be working models for other communities
when the effects of energy decline become
more intense
“The most radical thing
you can do
is stay home.”
—Gary Snyder
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Percentage of food consumed
locally that was produced
within a given radius
Ratio of car parking space to
productive land use
Degree of engagement in
practical relocalization work by
local community
Amount of traffic on local
roads
Number of businesses owned
by local people
Percentage of local trade
carried out in local currency
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Proportion of the community
employed locally
Percentage of essential goods
manufactured within a given
radius
Percentage of local building
materials used in new housing
developments
Number of 16-year-olds able
to grow 10 different varieties
of vegetables to a given degree
of basic competency
Percentage of medicines
prescribed locally that have
been produced within a given
radius