Transcript A Great Escape - ucsc.edu) and Media Services

A Great Escape: finding our way out
of the energy conundrum
Energy: A recap and a preview
• What is the “conundrum?”
• What is energy & why does it
matter?
• What has determined today’s
energy policies & fuel mix?
• To what degree can these be
strategically-altered?
• What kinds of energy
scenarios are out there?
• What we can do—if we want
to do something?
What is the “conundrum?”
• Global energy demand will rise
in the future
• Conventional energy supplies
appear limited in the mid-term
• Countries might seek to control
sources via military power
• Fossil fuels are implicated in
climate change
• Fossil fuel consumption must be
greatly reduced (80%?)
• Alternatives will not replace
fossil fuels for some time
• Takes 40-50 years for new
energy sources to mature
• What is likely to/going to
happen?
What is energy & why does it matter?
• Everything relies on energy
• Energy is capacity to do work
• Energy transformed into heat
can be made to do work
• But much is wasted in this
process
• We want energy for the
services it can provide
• We use least-cost forms of
energy to produce work
• But energy quality is not
always matched to the task
• Low-quality energy (solar) for
low-quality task (hot water)
What has determined today’s energy
policies & fuel mix?
• Context & contingency:
replacement
• Long-term political &
economic commitments
• Investment in current
sources
• “Tradition” of geopolitics
• Transfer of money
• Greed
• Path dependency
To what degree can these commitments
systematically & strategically changed?
• Technological change is driven by
both politics & markets
• Policy change is driven by
politics & interests
• Social change is driven by habit,
custom & status
• A crisis focuses mind & policy
• But even crisis might not move
deeply-embedded interests
• Experience with crisis & social
change is limited
–
–
–
–
–
World War II (reaction)
Soviet industrialization (planned)
Marshall Plan (reaction)
Apollo program (reaction/plan)
U.S. Synfuels Corporation (plan)
Consider the 50-year diffusion of solid-state
consumer electronics
• Transistor was outcome of
military-industrial research
• Early commercialization in late
1950s fostered innovation
• Replacements for bulky & energyintensive vacuum tubes
• Moore’s Law: declining size of
semiconductors & circuits
• Older devices adapted (radio, TV,
computer)
• New devices invented (cellphone,
MP3 players
• Cellphone has changed social
practices & mores
• How deliberate or strategic was
this?
Scenario-building can shed some light on
trends & strategies
Energy scenarios
• Business-as-usual
• “Techno-explosion”
• “Techno-stability”
• “Permaculture”
• “Decline & collapse”
• “Muddling along”
Business-as-usual
• Assumes no effort to
alter current policies
• Demand grows faster
than supply
• Some new sources are
put into play
• Geopolitics intervene
• Climate change has
differential impacts
Business-as-usual
Is BAU feasible, let alone possible?
Here are
Notice the theological tones in this diagram
“Techno-explosion,” aka,
“Don’t worry, be happy”
• Renewable, low-impact or other
sources developed
• Energy demand no longer
limited by supply
• Material growth spreads
throughout the world
• Distribution of wealth becomes
more even
• Rich get richer but so do the
poor
• Perhaps even a progressive
world state or federation
• This requires innovation,
infrastucture replacement &
development on a 20th century
scale
“Techno-stability, aka”
“Go with the flow”
• New, clean energy sources are
developed & deployed
• Closed-loop recycling & lowimpact goods emerge
• High wealth, but more even
distribution
• Global population stabilizes &
begins to slow decline
• New types of development &
decentralized politics
• Growth is moderated/limited
in the interest of stability
• This requires a fairly-high
degree of state intervention
“Permaculture,” aka,
“Small is beautiful”
• Intense conservation ethos spreads across
the world
• Accompanied by relatively-moderate
technological innovation
• Steady-state economy & radicallyreduced Global North consumption
• Massive aid & investment to Global South
• Growing reliance on local resources &
local sustainability
• Rise of cultural-political autonomy,
pluralism, decentralization
• Geopolitics & nationalism decline in
importance as political factors
• More even distribution of wealth, but at a
much lower level
• This requires massive intervention at a
community level, which is happening
• But scale of required change is daunting
“Decline & collapse,” aka,
“That’s all, folks!”
• Global economy stagnates
& then goes into decline
• No new energy sources
are widely deployed
• Geopolitical struggles for
resources break out
• Climate change kicks in
with a vengeance
• Severe scarcity leads to
general social disorder
• Political units fragment
• Various regions go it alone
• Plausible, but not likely
“Muddling along”
• Gradual deployment of
new energy resources
• Declining reliance on
fossil fuels
• Differential economic
growth across the world
• Uneven distribution of
environmental impacts
• Growing but contained
geopolitical tensions
• Not BAU but also not
radical rapid change
What can we do—if we want to do
something?
• Political & social activism
& mobilization
• Fostering change in social
beliefs & practices
• Establishing new norms
• More-localized efforts &
projects
• Documentation &
communication networks
• Reproduction of successful
projects from elsewhere