Transcript Source: IEA - Louis Bachelier

Energy transition and technological risks
Patrice Geoffron
University Paris-Dauphine, LEDa
[email protected]
1
Historical energy transition pathways…
(1/2)
Source: Fouquet & Pearson (2012)
2
Historical energy transition pathways…
(2/2)
Source: Grubler (2012)
3
… compared with the low carbon energy
transition
GDP and CO2 at world level
What the “well below 2C”
means from a
macroeconomic point of
view
GDP
(log)
Source: Adapted from IEA
4
The Paris Agreement is designed to
progressively reduce technological risks
“Its long-term objectives set the bar
very high in terms of ambition, (…]
shifting of financial flows.
The INDC and stock-taking process
should be dynamic enough to enable
Parties to reach these objectives over
time.”
(Laurent Fabius, COP 21 President,
Dec 12 2016)
5
Recent stabilization of energy related CO2
emissions could announce a “U-turn”…
Source: IEA
6
… but the gap is impressively challenging
(1/2)
Source: UNFCCC
7
… but the gap is impressively challenging
(2/2)
Low Carbon Economy Index
Source: PWC
8
Dealing with a Darwinian portfolio of
technologies: the micro view
Source:I24C
9
Dealing with a Darwinian portfolio of
technologies: the macro view
Source: IEA
10
Facing growing system complexity…
Share of variable electricity generation
in 2015 and 2021
Source: IEA
11
…inducing new categories of risks (or
challenges)
Timescales of threats to power system security
Source: Boston (2013)
12
Risks are not limited to energy technologies
Smart grids, smart cities will combine energy, ITC & transportation innovations,
dense in data, integrated in new business models, …
Source: Eurelectric
13
Risk assessment is to be replaced is the
ongoing “globalization” of low carbon
technologies…
Additional renewable capacities (2015-2021)
Source: IEA
14
… keeping also in mind the internal dynamics
(and geopolitics) of fossil fuels (1/3)
Source: IEA
15
… keeping also in mind the internal dynamics
(and geopolitics) of fossil fuels (2/3)
Resources in Tm3
North America
50.5
South America
40.5
Europe
13.3
CIS
11.8
Africa
39.4
Asia
51.3
WORLD TOTAL 206.7
Unconventional fossil fuels
Source EIA/ARI
16
… keeping also in mind the internal dynamics
(and geopolitics) of fossil fuels (3/3)
Oil price/barrel
Source: IMF
17
Conclusion: No(t so much) additional
money, but massive reallocations needed
Source: The New Climate Economy Report (2015)
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