Transcript 10.09.29 Woking, Strahan, ODAC

Peak oil, climate change and a
world beyond oil
Woking LA21
HG Wells Centre
29 September 2010
David Strahan
www.odac-info.org
Why they call it peak oil
Source: ASPO
Why oil peaks
UK North Sea oil production by field
Source: UKERC, DECC
Why it matters
●
●
●
Oil supplies 95% transport energy
Agriculture: producing 1 calorie of food
requires 10 calories of fossil energy.
Oil and gas provide all petrochemicals and
lubricants
●
Oil drives gas and power prices
●
Oil price spikes cause recessions
Peak oil and climate change
CO2 emissions by sector
1%
3%
28bn tCO2 2007
5%
3%
7%
41%
17%
23%
Source data: IEA WEO 2009
Power generation
Transport
Industry
Residential
Services
Agriculture
Non-energy use
Other energy
The primacy of oil
Global primary energy by fuel
0%
12026 Mtoe, 2007
6%
12%
21%
34%
Source data: IEA Renewables Data, 2009
27%
Natural gas
Coal
Oil
Renewables
Non-renew. Waste
Nuclear
Where the oil goes
Oil use by function
85m barrels / day
16%
18%
50%
8%
8%
Source data: ITPOES, 2010
Road
Air
Sea
Heat & power
Non-fuel
Oil producers (98)
Post peak oil producers (64)
Couldn’t we find some more?
Source: IHS Energy; Groppe, Long & Littell
Non-conventionals slow
Tar sands output
2035: 6.3 mb/d ?
Growth in the Canadian Oil Sands,
IHS CERA 2009
Conventional
depletion to
2030: 60 mb/d
Global Oil Depletion, UKERC, 2009
We’re all peakists now….
Sadad al-Huseini
2004
Kenneth Deffeyes
2005
Bank Macquarie
2009
Colin Campbell
2010
Petrobras
2010
ITPOES
2014
Total
2015
Douglas-Westwood
2015
PFC Energy
2020
UKERC
‘significant risk’ pre-2020
Shell
2020s
IEA
2020-30
Are we there yet?
160
140
120
Price ($/bbl)
100
80
60
40
WTI Crude
20
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Energyquote
Impacts
●
Oil price volatility, rising spikes
●
Serial recessions
●
Shrinking fuel supply
●
Short term outages – 2000 revisited?
●
Sooner than climate change!
Biofuels inadequate
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‘1st generation’: food crops
In Europe/US, 5% road fuel = 20%
cropland (IEA)
‘2nd generation’: woody biomass
World transport fuel demand = land
area of China (Strahan)
Not low carbon!
Hydrogen wasteful
Source: BMW
BEV potential massive
Source: SustainAbility
Two birds, one stone
CO2 emissions by sector
1%
3%
28bn tCO2 2007
5%
3%
7%
41%
17%
23%
Source data: IEA WEO 2009
Power generation
Transport
Industry
Residential
Services
Agriculture
Non-energy use
Other energy
Large vehicles - biogas
Biomethane could provide 16% UK
transport fuel (NSCA, 2006)
Public transport consumes <5%
Sources: NSCA, DfT
How to reach a world beyond oil
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Decarbonize electricity supply
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Electrify ground transport and heat
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Biogas for heavy transport
●
Demand reduction
●
Carbon pricing
“This book should be compulsory reading
in government in this and every other oil
importing country.”
Richard Hardman CBE, former head of
E&P, Amerada Hess
“…a really good and informative read on a
topic that affects us all.”
Lord Oxburgh, former chairman of Shell
“This important and easily-read book is the
first I've seen which presents the vital
technical data accurately and intelligibly.”
Jeremy Gilbert, former Chief Petroleum
Engineer, BP
“A well written exposition of the peak oil
case.”
Ed Crooks, Energy Editor, Financial
Times
Is Woking CHP approach the answer?
Is Woking CHP approach the answer?
Impact of Woking approach
Gas use efficiency doubled?
Gas consumption cut by c30%
82% electricity self generated:
71% gas fired CHP
11% renewables
Drawbacks of Woking CHP approach
- Increased gas dependency
- Gas shocks, price volatility
- Inflexibility: harder to balance renewable
generation – Danish example
- CHP displaces renewables, locks in
emissions
- Biogas cannot replace natural gas: all UK
arable land would produce less than half
the necessary biogas – even if demand
cut by 30% (Strahan)
Intermittency is solvable
West Denmark wind vs demand,
25% wind energy (Jan 2008)
Source: Danish Technological Institute
West Denmark wind vs demand,
50% wind energy
100% renewable supergrid?
Source data: Mainstream Renewables
Does it have to cost the earth?
Power investment to 2030
European/N Africa supergrid: € 1.5 trn
(Czisch) (= €0.047 / kWh)
BAU Europe $2.4 trn
(IEA WEO 2009)
BAU global power sector $13.7 trn
(IEA WEO 2009)
“This book should be compulsory reading
in government in this and every other oil
importing country.”
Richard Hardman CBE, former head of
E&P, Amerada Hess
“…a really good and informative read on a
topic that affects us all.”
Lord Oxburgh, former chairman of Shell
“This important and easily-read book is the
first I've seen which presents the vital
technical data accurately and intelligibly.”
Jeremy Gilbert, former Chief Petroleum
Engineer, BP
“A well written exposition of the peak oil
case.”
Ed Crooks, Energy Editor, Financial
Times
Aren’t we finding lots more oil?
Giant oil find by BP
reopens debate about
oil supplies
Guardian, 2 September 2009
BG's Brazilian oil find
will 'dwarf' BP's strike
in the US Gulf Coast
Guardian, 9 September 2009