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New frontiers for alternative energy
Reid Buckley, Vice-President, BP Alternative Energy
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Energy demand 2005-2030
Billion tonnes
oil equivalent
20
18
16
Reference
Alternative
14
12
10
2005
2015
2030
- Reference scenario represents ‘business-as-usual’
- Alternative scenario assumes all climate change and energy
security policies now being considered by governments are adopted
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Source: IEA World Economic Outlook 2007
CO2 emissions 2005-2030
Billion tonnes CO2
50
Reference scenario represents
‘business-as-usual’
Reference
Alternative
Alternative scenario assumes all
climate change and energy security
policies now being considered by
governments are adopted
2°C scenario
40
2°C scenario shows IEA calculation of
path needed to prevent temperatures
rising 2°C over pre-industrial levels
30
20
2005
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2015
2030
Source: IEA World Economic Outlook 2007
Energy drivers
Demand
Climate change
Energy security
High energy prices
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Energy criteria
Availability
Sustainability
Reliability
Affordability
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Alternative energy
Low-or-no carbon
Plentiful
Secure
Increasingly attractive
economically
“I’d put my money on the
sun and solar energy. What
a source of power! I hope
we don’t have to wait until
oil and coal run out before
we tackle that.” Thomas
Edison, 1931
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Policy support for alternative energy
Policy targets in 66 countries
Feed-in tariffs in 37 countries
Mandates for biofuels in 17 countries
Source: Ren21 Global Status Report 2007, Renewable Energy Policy Network
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Alternative energy: the market today
Global new investment in clean energy
Demand growth p.a. since 2001
$148.4bn
150
40
125
100
$86.5bn
75
20
$54.6bn
$bn
%
30
50
$28.6bn
10
0
25
Total Primary
Energy
Sources:
Wind
Solar
Biofuels
Primary energy based on IEA WEO reference scenario. Renewables based
on New Energy Finance
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0
2004
2005
2006
2007
Grossed-up estimate based on disclosed deals.
New investment only.
Source: New Energy Finance
8
Alternative energy: the market today
Global new investment in clean energy
Demand growth p.a. since 2001
$148.4bn
150
40
125
100
$86.5bn
75
20
$54.6bn
$bn
%
30
50
$28.6bn
10
0
25
Total Primary
Energy
Sources:
Wind
Solar
Biofuels
Primary energy based on IEA WEO reference scenario. Renewables based
on New Energy Finance
alternativenergy
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
Grossed-up estimate based on disclosed deals.
New investment only.
Source: New Energy Finance
9
Proportions of world energy today
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US wind capacity - beating the projections
GW
Actual capacity end-2007
18
16
14
EIA projection from 2004
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2002
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2007
2013
2018
2023
BP Alternative Energy
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BP Alternative Energy: a growing global business
Solar PV facility / market
Wind power
Hydrogen power
Biofuels facility / market
Gas fired power
Investing $1.5bn in 2008 – as much as in previous
two years combined
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BP Alternative Energy: solar power
• 30 years’ experience, 20 offices, 2000+ employees,
installations in 160 countries.
• Manufacturing facilities in Frederick US, Bangalore, Madrid,
Xian and Sydney.
• Expecting to grow 60%+ by 2012.
• Expanding production to achieve target sales of around
800MW with similar levels of production by 2010
• Includes $97m expansion at Frederick – largest integrated solar manufacturing plant in US
• Advanced Mono² process; support for research projects
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14
BP Alternative Energy: wind power
Expected installed gross capacity
3GW
MW
3000
2000
US land portfolio with potential
for 15GW
1GW
1000
30 MW
0
2005
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end 2008
end 2010
15
BP Alternative Energy: wind power
Built:
• Colorado: Cedar Creek wind farm with partner Babcock & Brown –
300MW
• Dhule, India - project built with partner Suzlon – 40MW
• Netherlands: Two farms – total 30MW
Under construction:
• Indiana: Fowler Ridge wind farm with Dominion – Phase I - 400MW
• Texas: Silver Star project with Clipper - 60MW; Sherbino project with
NRG Energy - 150MW
• Kansas: Flat Ridge farm with Westar Energy - 100MW
• California – re-powering Edom Hills – 20MW
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16
BP Alternative Energy: biofuels
• Producing ‘good’ biofuels – which reduce emissions and enhance security
without damaging habitats and forests
• $1bn investment in Brazilian ethanol – made from sustainable sugarcane - the most efficient feedstock currently available - greenhouse gas
emissions reductions of up to 80%
• Working with DuPont to demonstrate biobutanol
• Investing $500 million over 10 years in the Energy Biosciences Institute
to explore advanced biofuels and other applications of biotech to energy
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17
BP Alternative Energy: hydrogen energy
Concept for Abu Dhabi power
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New policies on alternative energy
Climate high on agenda for G8 and UN
Climate summit in Copenhagen December 2009
Carbon price of up to $60 projected by 2012*
National legislation or proposals underway in many countries
*Source: New Energy Finance
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Alternative energy: future market drivers
Global new investment in 2030 - Clean Tech
forecast
Demand growth p.a. 2005-2030E
3000
25
$2-3trn
20
2000
%
$bn
15
10
1000
$148bn
5
0
Total Primary
Energy
Sources:
Wind
Solar
Biofuels
Primary energy based on IEA WEO 2007 reference scenario. Renewables
based on New Energy Finance
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0
2007
2030
Source: New Energy Finance, Nov 2007
20
Solar potential – Central America
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Wind potential – Central America
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New frontiers for alternative energy
Reid Buckley, Vice-President, BP Alternative Energy
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