Transcript Punktlighet maj - juli 2014

A New Climate Economy:
Sustainable transport
systems at the centre of
solutions
Adj Prof. Johan Kuylenstierna
Executive Director
Stockholm Environment Institute
Picture Source: Green Cargo
Source: www.unep.org/pcfv/PDF/BAQAsia-Session1.pdf
Distribution of surface freight transport
Source: EU, Statistical Pocketbook, 2011
Discussion paper : 16th ACEA SAG Meeting, June 2011
Population and resources
"The power of
population is
indefinitely greater
than the power in the
earth to produce
subsistence for man".
World Economic Forum: Global Risks 2011
“The past 20 years….substantial progress….. Most people……
healthier, live longer, are more educated and have more access
to goods and services……… also in expanding people’s power to
select leaders, influence public decisions and share knowledge. “
UNDP 2010. Human Development Report 2010. Summary. 20th Anniversary
Edition. The Real Wealth of Nations: Pathways to Human Development.
(UNDP)
www.brookings.edu
www2.warwick.ac.uk
Mega
cities
1950
Mega cities 2015
7,231,108,460
5 maj, 14:27:37
Källa: U.N.
Population
Division
Source:
U.N. Population Division
KOF Index of Globalization
Source: http://globalization.kof.ethz.ch/
World Merchandise Trade Volume
By Major Product Group (1950-2009)
Source: World Trade Statistics, 2011
Discussion paper : 16th ACEA SAG Meeting, June 2011
IPCC 5th Assessment Report
Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
Source: IPCC AR5 WG1
Fig. SPM.1b
Warming in the climate system is unequivocal
Source: IPCC AR5 WG1
Global CO2 per region
From: www.pbl.nl
Asia now accounts for ~46% of global emissions, but emissions
per capita are still much lower than in North America
GHG emissions, including land use change
and forestry, by region, 2010
Million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalents
21,325
% of global
GHG emissions per capita in total
2010, tCO2e per capita
emissions
Asia
46%
7,836
Europe
17%
7,502
North America
16%
Latin America
& the Caribbean
11%
Africa
9%
Oceania
2%
4,936
4,108
2
Per capita target for staying within
2 degrees of global temperature rise
SOURCE: World Resources Institute CAIT
Climate performance off track: next 10 years critical
GHG emissions projections
10 year
window to
shift
momentum
Water scarcity
Picture Source: Dr. Daniel Vermeer, Director, Global Water
Partnerships, The Coca-Cola Company
Southeast Asia, Baseline Water Stress and Power Plants
Southeast Asia, Long Term Change in Water Stress and Power Plants
(2025, IPCC Scenario A1B)
Land resources increasingly strategic
Source: FAO/SOLAW
” Global trade systems transmit and mediate a variety of
impacts – the most prominent example of this is the global
food trade system” (AR5 WGII, ch. 19.4)
• Food import has dubbled in 10 years
• Swedish export is dependent on Swedish import
Exportandelar
Export s om a ndel a v BNP, procent
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Källa: Världsbanken (WDI)
År
Hämtat: 2014-03-30
Sveri ge
EU
USA
Source: Word Bank
Transformations have happened in the past
London December 1962: Photo by Fox
Photos/Hulton Archive/Getty Images
Cuyahoga River Fire Nov. 3, 1952.
Cleveland Press Collection, Cleveland
State University Library
Times Magazine: A person "does not drown but
decays".
The world economy has more than doubled since 1980 and is
expected to almost double by 2030
India
Real GDP1 by region, 1980 – 2030
CAGR,
1980 - 2010
USD trillions
93
5
Rest of Asia Pacific
Middle East and
Africa
Latin America
4%
China
OECD Asia Pacific
Europe and Eurasia
10%
50
3
3%
3
4
2%
22
3
2
3%
1980
2010
1 Real GDP: Real GDP (constant 2005 US$). Mexico is included in Latin America.
SOURCE: Projection from USDA(ERS), Actual data from World Bank
2030
North America
The middle class could grow by 3 billion people by 2030
Global middle class
Billions of people
4.88
3.25
0.11
0.23
0.31
0.32
0.68
1.85
Sub-Saharan Africa
Middle East and North Africa
Central and South America
3 billion
0.06 0.17
0.25
0.33
0.70
0.03
0.11
0.18
0.34
3.23
North America
Europe
0.66
Asia-Pacific
0.53
1.74
2009
2020
2030
SOURCE: Resource Revolution, McKinsey Global Institute
Atlanta and Barcelona: Similar GDP per capital,
very different carbon productivity
ATLANTA
BARCELONA
Atlanta’s built-up area
Barcelona’s built-up area
Population: 5.25 million
Urban area: 4,280 km2
Carbon emissions: 7.5 tonnes CO2/ha/an
(public+ private transport)
Population: 5.33 million
Urban area: 162 km2
Carbon emissions: 0.7 tonnes CO2/ha/an
(public+ private transport)
Infrastructure spend central to low-carbon growth
Global investment; 2010 to 2030, $trillion, constant 2010 dollars
101.6
12.44
27.6
15.9
5.0
7.1
33.6
Source: OECD (2006, 2012), IEA (2012)
There are still direct subsidies of up to $1.1 trillion
per year on resources
ESTIMATE
Annual subsidies for key resources
$ billion
1,020–1,120
40
200–300
Energy1
Agriculture2
Water
Fisheries
1 Includes fossil-fuel consumption in power production; excludes subsidies on alternative energy.
2 Estimated as OECD plus Brazil, China, Russia, South Africa, and Ukraine; total support estimates less market price supports.
3 Excludes unpriced externalities such as carbon emissions and ecosystem impact.
SOURCE: McKinsey analysis based on OECD; IEA; UNEP; Global Water Institute
Total direct
subsidies3
Tillväxt, primärenergi
OECD/EIS, 2013
Coal is no longer the safe bet for energy security
New coal consumption split by new imports and new domestic production
Million metric tonnes of coal1 per year, %
China
(Scenario: Wood-Mac 2013 /
Wang High Depletion)
3,200
India
(Scenario: IESS level 2)
New imports
New domestic
975
72%
50%
1,482
18%
694
3%
261
82%
28%
97%
112
84%
2000-2005
2005-2012
2012-2030
46%
16%
2000-2005
50%
54%
2005-2012
2012-2030
1 All types, not adjusted for calorific content
SOURCE: China projections: Wang et al. 2012; IEA WEO 2013; Wood-Mackenzie 2013. India projections: India Energy Security Scenarios; IEA WEO 2013
Energy efficiency
IEA 11* total final energy consumption and energy services, 1974 vs. 2010
EJ
Actual 2010 energy consumption
… but would need to be 100% higher
was 20% higher than in 1974…
had energy efficiency not improved
160
Energy efficiency
Other
Coal
Electricity
Gas
Oil
63
(80%)
16
(20%)
81
2
63
97
6 0
5
6
5
22
22
14
15
22
22
42
42
42
1974
energy use
Actual 2010
energy use
2010 energy
services+
8
*Australia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom, the
United States
+ Hypothetical 2010 energy supply required absent energy efficiency improvements since 1974
SOURCE: IEA Energy efficiency market report 2013
Without constant
improvements
since 1974 energy
consumption
would need to be
65% higher
Low-carbon energy sources have steep
learning curves
Example: Wind power
Wind turbines have evolved to have 100 times more
power generation capabilities than 30 years ago
Rotor diameter:
126m
Rating: 7,500 kW
Costs of power from different sources:
Germany example of learning curve
180
Nuclear
Gas CCGT
Coal PC
Onshore Wind
Solar PV
160
140
LCOE ($/MWh)
Hub height (m)
120
100
100m
3,000 kW
17m
75 kW
30m
300 kW
80
60
40
20
0
2013
1980-90 1990-95
2000-2005
2011
2018
2023
Year
2028
2033
Note: Carbon price and social cost of carbon
and health care impacts are not included
Business in the Anthropocene
•
•
•
•
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Opportunities and Challenges!
An increasingly connected world
Demographic transitions – urban world
Energy transition (supply to systems
change)
Value chains, new relationships: Supply
chain, supply net, producer-user
Natural resources – from land and water
to rare earth
Policy and innovation
• Resource efficiency guiding star
• Moving away from fossil fuel solutions
• Economic and legal frameworks
(subsidies, incentives, systems)
• Infrastructure constraints (spatial
planning)
• Innovation – at all levels
The Global Commission on the
Economy and Climate
http://newclimateeconomy.net
THANK YOU
Johan Kuylenstierna
[email protected]
Twitter: @JKuylenstierna
www.sei-international.org