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6th ECEN Assembly, Flämslätt, Sweden,
28-30 September 2006
Climate Change and Energy
Trends and Projections
André Jol
Head of Group Climate Change and Energy
European Environment Agency
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Content
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EEA background
Climate change impacts
Adaptation and mitigation strategies
Global emissions and pathways
Global energy system
Energy and greenhouse gases in Europe
Bio-energy potential in Europe
Conclusions
European Environment Agency
The European Environment Agency is the EU
body dedicated to providing sound, independent
information on the environment
http://www.eea.eu.int
Copenhagen, Denmark
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The EEA is...
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An independent information provider
An analyst and assessor
Building bridges between science and policy
Dependent upon strong networks to carry
out its work
...to support policy processes and inform
the public
EEA member and
collaborating countries
Member countries
Collaborating countries
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Climate change and its impacts
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CO2 concentration and global temperature in the past
400 000 years (current CO2 conc is 380 ppm)
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Source: IPCC, 2001
Most of the observed warming in the past 50 years is
attributable to GHG emissions from human activities
Source: IPCC, 2001
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Global temperature increased by 0.7 °C over the past 100 years
and is projected to be + 1.4–5.8 °C (1990-2100). The top 5
warmest years worldwide were: 2005, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004
Source: IPCC, 2001
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Risks of impacts increases with temperature (IPCC, 2001)
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Source: IPCC, 2001
Ocean acidification, ocean warming and sea
level rise are also key concerns
Acidification of oceans due
to CO2 is an additional
recently highlighted reason
for substantial GHG
emission reductions.
A further increase in water
temperatures, in combination
with continuing acidification,
will have major overall impacts
on marine ecosystems and also
on fisheries.
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Source: WBGU, 2006
Abrupt accelerated climate change is highly uncertain,
but the impacts can be very large (example)
Complete disintegration of the Greenland Ice and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
would lead to +7 m and +5 m sea level rise (taking thousand or more years). A
threshold for global temperature increase and the likelihood of these events are
highly uncertain.
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Source: ACIA, 2004, Tyndall Centre, 2005
European summer temperature 2003
• Very likely that greenhouse gases have doubled the risk of summer
temperatures as hot as 2003
• Such a heat wave is now four times more likely. By 2050 every other summer
could be as hot as 2003
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Sources: IPCC, WMO, CRU, Stott et. al. (in Nature, 2004)
Projected precipitation changes in 2080
• Average annual precipitation is projected to increase in northern Europe (up
to 25%) but decrease in southern Europe (up to 25%)
• More frequent droughts and intense precipitation events are likely
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Source: Hadley Centre HadCM3 model, B2 scenario
River flooding events 1998-2005
• About 100 (river) floods: more than 700 fatalities, a million people affected and
25 billion EUR in insured economic losses
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Source: EEA, 2006
Coastal zones
• Sea level is projected to rise for centuries (0.09-0.88 m from 1990 to 2100)
• 9% of all European coastal zones is below 5 m elevation (85% for NL, BE), potentially
vulnerable to sea level rise and related inundations
• Coastal zone ecosystems are threatened
• Future increase in storm frequency and intensity (uncertainties)
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Source: EEA, 2006
Water resources
• Temperature rise and changing precipitation are likely to exacerbate the water
shortage in southern and south-eastern Europe (increasing demand for irrigation in
agriculture) and eastern Europe (increasing demand for households and industry)
Source: Henrichs and Alcamo, 2001. Hadley Centre HadCM3 model, baseline scenario
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Adaptation and mitigation strategies
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Balancing mitigation and adaptation: “Avoiding the
unmanageable, managing the unavoidable”
• EU Council target of limiting global temperature increase to
+2°C above pre-industrial levels needs global emission
reduction of 15% up to 50% by 2050 (from 1990
levels)
• Some global and European climate change is
inevitable due to historical built up of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere, and time lags in climate and ocean
systems
• EU Council recognised the need to prepare for and adapt
to climate change in both developing and developed
countries, to complement mitigation policies
• Addressing climate change has costs, but also brings
benefits and opportunities e.g. for innovation
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Recent EU policy developments on adaptation
• Biodiversity Communication mentions climate change
• Green Paper “Towards a future Maritime Policy” and the
Thematic Strategy for the marine environment mention
climate change
• Water Framework Directive implementation, initial
discussions on adaptation to climate change
• Flood Action Programme and proposed Directive, includes
requirement for MS to assess climate change effects
• European Climate Change Programme (ECCPII) working
group on adaptation meetings and planned Commission
Green Paper on Adaptation (Dec 2006)
However many EU policies do not yet address
climate change impacts
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Global CO2 emissions have increased
substantially, especially since the 1950s
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Source: CDIAC, 2004
Growth in global CO2 emissions is expected
especially in developing countries
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Source: World Energy Outlook, 2004 (IEA, 2004)
The EU proposed that developed countries would reduce total GHG
emissions by 15-30% by 2020 and 60-80% by 2050
The EU target of max + 2 °C temperature increase requires at least stabilising at 550 ppm
CO2–equivalent. Most likely a lower target is needed, e.g. 450 ppm. The latter would mean
80% emission reduction by 2050 for developed countries (from 1990 levels). However also
other countries should limit increase or reduce emissions
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Source: EEA, 2005
Pathway towards 550 ppm CO2 eq or ca. 450 ppm CO2
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Source: EEA, 2005
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°C
6-
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2050
6-7 GtC reduction
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5-
8
3-
Global Carbon Emissions, GtC
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Source: WBSCD
550
ppm
4Facts & Trends
9 GtC world
WRE 1000 (IPCC)
WRE 550 (IPCC)
WRE 450 (IPCC)
1000
ppm
Further rises to 2300
By 2050 we need to
have reduced CO2
emissions by 6-7 GtC
with 1.3 GtC reduced
by 2025, compared
with the "BAU" case.
Facts & Trends
IPCC Scenarios
450
ppm
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1-
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2025
1.3 GtC reduction
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1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
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BAU
Pathways to 2050
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2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2040
2050
2100 range
Global Carbon Emissions, GtC
Pathways towards 550 ppm CO2 according to WBSCD
World energy system
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World energy demand
•global energy market is projected to grow by two-thirds over the next three
decades, annual demand growth of 1.7% p.a.
•Worldwide consumption of natural gas will almost double by 2030, overtaking
that of coal within the next decade.
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Source: IEA, 2004
China and Asia’s energy demand will grow
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Source: IEA, 2004
We probably will not run out of resources by 2030, nonconventional oil becomes important
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Source: IEA, 2004
Increases in energy prices may lead to some reduction in
demand and may make renewable energy more attractive, but
is problematic especially for developing countries
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World oil reserves and production
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Source: IEA, 2004
World gas production
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Source: IEA, 2004
Increasing global energy trade, an issue for
energy security
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non Middle-East
oil production:
peaks around
2030
total world oil
production
peaks later
(2050?).
Source: IEA, 2004
Investment needs differ by region
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Source: IEA, 2005
Global investment needs
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Total energy-supply infrastructure investment
needs up to 2030: $16 trillion
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The electricity sector dominates (60%), oil and
gas sectors will be 19%
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Total investment needs are 1% of global GDP
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Russia’s investment requirement will be 5% of
GDP, Africa’s 4%, much lower in OECD countries
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More private sector involvement in developing
countries will be required
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The projected rate of growth in investment and
supply projected still leaves 1.4 billion people
without access to electricity in 2030
Opportunities to invest in sustainable energy
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Source: IEA, 2005
The need for a portfolio for achieving substantial
global CO2 emission reductions
• There is a substantial potential for energy savings and energy
efficiency in all sectors (transport, industry, buildings)
• In power and heat generation a combination of low carbon
energy technologies is needed, including substantial increases
in all renewable energy technologies and high-efficient natural
gas plants
• The use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) at a large scale
may contribute, however further research and demonstration of
the technology with manageable environmental and other risks
is needed. Risks of CO2 storage in the ocean, i.e. in the water
column and on the sea floor, are high
• Nuclear might also contribute. However there is still no
acceptable long term waste storage available, some risks of
accidental radioactive releases remain, risk of possible use for
nuclear weapons, costs estimates differ, long preparation and
building time
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Carbon capture and storage
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The global potential for CCS is substantial
Illustrative example of the global potential contribution of CCS
as part of a mitigation portfolio (MiniCAM and MESSAGE results)
SRCCS Figure TS-12
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CO2 storage prospective
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Maturity of CCS technology
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EU China partnership on climate change
• China relies for 70% of its energy consumption on coal. In
2004 China consumed some 34% of the coal used worldwide
and generated 74% of the growth in world coal consumption.
China wishes to reduce coal-related environmental pollution
in cities.
• EU cooperation with China includes:
• Partnership to develop and demonstrate near zero
emissions coal technology through carbon capture and
storage
• Action Plans on clean coal technologies and energy
efficiency & renewable energy
• Joint research projects in many areas
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EU GHG emissions and energy trends
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The EU15 will reach its Kyoto target (-8%) only with
additional domestic measures and Kyoto mechanisms
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Various EU15 MS are not on track to their Kyoto targets
(2005 information)
EU-15
Projects to meet its national burden
sharing (Kyoto Protocol) target through:
EU-10
Existing domestic policies and measures
Sweden, UK
Czech Republic, Estonia,
Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia,
Poland and Slovak Republic
Existing and planned domestic policies and
measures
France, Germany,
Greece
Slovenia
Existing domestic policies and measures and use
of Kyoto mechanisms
Luxembourg
Existing and planned domestic policies and
measures and use of Kyoto mechanisms
Austria, Belgium,
Finland, Netherlands
Projects not to meet its national target
Denmark, Ireland, Italy,
Portugal, Spain
No Kyoto Protocol target
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Malta, Cyprus
EU-15 GHG emissions from transport are projected to
increase further, emissions from other sectors decrease
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EU-25 Energy consumption continues to grow, although
energy intensity of the EU economy decreased by 15 %
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Share of combined heat and power in electricity
production in 2002 is low in many MS
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Many EU-15 MS are not on track to their targets for
electricity from renewable sources (in 2003)
Scenario projections
EU indicative target
of 12% by 2010
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Key EU (domestic) policies and measures to
reduce GHG emissions
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EU CO2 emissions trading scheme
Electricity from renewable energy
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Combined heat and power (CHP)
Energy efficiency (buildings, industry,
household appliances, cars)
• Biofuels in transport
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Recovery of methane from landfills
Reduction of fluorinated gases
Remove potentially environmentally harmful
subsidies
Research and development
Raise awareness
Conclusions towards a more sustainable EU
energy system (1)
• Environmental sustainability to be treated equal
to energy security and competitiveness
• Regulatory and economic framework that
provides long-term price signals to investors and
consumers including external costs (CO2 price)
• Limit the growth of and ultimately reduce energy
demand
• Use the substantial potential for further energy
savings and energy efficiency
• Change consumer behaviour
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Conclusions towards a more sustainable EU
energy system (2)
• Use mix of many different technologies to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions
• Substantial increase in the use of
renewable energy
• Sufficient funding for energy research and
development
• Change energy subsidies which still focus
primarily on fossil fuels despite their
adverse environmental impacts
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EU high renewables and energy efficiency scenario is possible (1)
Reduction in total primary energy use (-2.5%) and CO2 emissions
(-29%) by 2030 from 1990 levels
Source: Scenarios on energy efficiency and renewables, European Commission, 2006
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EU high renewables and energy efficiency scenario (2)
Renewables: 12% of primary energy needs (2010) (which is the EU
target) and 26% in 2030
Nuclear reduces (more than in the baseline)
Source: Scenarios on energy efficiency and renewables, European Commission, 2006
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EU high renewables and energy efficiency scenario (3)
Total electricity almost same in 2030 as in 2000, Renewables: 43%
in 2020 and 56% in 2030 (biomass 22%; wind 18%)
Electricity generation in TWh
Source: Scenarios on energy efficiency and renewables, European Commission, 2006
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EU high renewables and energy efficiency scenario (4)
Import dependency is better than in the baseline (total
59.3% in 2030)
Source: Scenarios on energy efficiency and renewables, European Commission, 2006
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Environmental criteria for increase of biomass
Extensively cultivated farmland usually has higher
biodiversity value
 30% of Utilized Agricultural Area ‘environmentally
oriented’ farming in 2030 (except Be, Lux, Malta, NL)
Some farmland species require “ecological stepping
stones”
 set-aside 3% of intensively used farmland for nature
conservation
High loss of biodiversity & release of soil carbon if
grassland is transformed into arable land
 Only extensive bioenergy use from grassland
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Source: EEA, 2006
Agricultural bioenergy: minimise environmental pressure by growing the right crops
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Every bioenergy crop has a
specific environmental
performance
2. Grow bioenergy crops with
low environmental pressure
3. Set the crop-specific pressure
into context of specific env.
characteristics of the region
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Source: EEA, 2006
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erosion
soil compaction
nutrient inputs
ground& surface water
pesticide pollution of
soils and water
water abstraction
"increased fire risk“
biodiversity
(diversity of crop type)
Even under environmental criteria EU-25
bio-energy potential is substantial
Potentials for 2030 are (MtOE): Waste 100; Agriculture 140; Forestry 55 (total 295)
(in 2003: 69)
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Source: EEA, 2006
Co-benefits between energy use and
nature protection are possible
1. Use cuttings from grassland
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necessary to maintain biodiversity-rich grassland and landscape
diversity
provide (limited) amount of bioenergy (5-7% of total agric. potential)
2. Use new bioenergy crop systems and varieties
• reduced environmental pressure: less nutrient input, enhanced crop
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diversity, less use of heavy machines lower, structural elements
high energy yield
3. Use forest residues
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Can support fire prevention measures in otherwise unmanaged forests
in Southern Europe
provides bioenergy, covering (parts of) the cost of collection
Source: EEA, 2006
EU-25 scenario for 2050 (WBCSD)
Energy per capita, GJ
2002
180
Pathways 2025
1990
Pathways 2050
160
1971
140
120
CO2 per energy
unit used, t/TJ
100
0
$0
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$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
GDP per capita,
$US (1995 ppp)
Milestones by 2025:
By 2050:
 Some 30+ large generating stations
using CCS;
 Natural gas use up 35% from 2002;
 A restart in nuclear power growth;
 Rapid growth in renewable energy: wind
power some 10-15 times the 2002 level;
 Vehicle efficiency improves by nearly 50%.
 Overall reduction in primary energy
demand;
 Electricity becomes the main end-use
energy source;
 A broad based energy mix, including
nuclear;
 Petroleum / bio-fuel / hydrogen mix
in the transport sector;
 Large scale use of renewables.
Source: WBSCD, 2005
Overall conclusions on climate change and
sustainable energy
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More efforts are required to reach the modest Kyoto targets
(which are only a first step)
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Substantial further reductions in global and EU GHG
emissions are needed to avoid unacceptable impacts, hence
strong global and EU action is needed in energy use and
supply
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The challenges are enormous and all should contribute –
governments, industries, private persons, researchers,
NGOs, etc
EU Climate change campaign for citizens
http://www.climatechange.eu.com/
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Thank you for your attention !
More information:
www.eea.eu.int
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