Transcript AVOIDING THE NEED TO TRAVEL

SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT
LOOKING INTO THE FUTURE
David Banister
Transport Studies Unit
School of Geography and the Environment
University of Oxford
The Big Issues
From John Beddington’s
lecture at Oxford University
23rd June 2009
The New Imperative
The Facts – tCO2 2006
Global
EU27
US
Target
China
India
Estimates of 390 CO2 ppmv 2009
Total
4.37
9.28
19.45
2.00
4.07
1.07
Transport
1.07
2.53
6.80
0.75
0.45
0.10
A Pathway to 90% Reduction
by 2050
2080s 50% probability
level: central estimate
Change in summer
precipitation (%)
Medium emissions
= - 21-31%
Change in annual mean
temperature (ºC) Medium
emissions = +3.5C
UKCIP09 Projections
Change in winter
precipitation (%)
Medium emissions
= +19-21%
Oxford – CO2 emissions by sector (2002)
and from transport (2003)
Rajat Gupta (2005) Oxford Climate Change Action Plan, November
Action at the LTP Level
• Top down – international agreement v
bottom up – implementation and action
• Stakeholders and responsibilities – public
and private sectors
• Technological optimism and behavioural
change – climate change fatigue
• Short term immediacy and longer term
speculation
Sustainable Mobility
Paradigm
TRIPS
Substitute or not
make them
DISTANCE
Shorten trip
lengths
Land use
planning
MODE
Use of public
transport,
walk and
cycle
EFFICIENCY
Load factors
Fuels
Efficiency
Design
Sustainable mobility explores ways of travelling less rather
than travelling more, to overcome the problems of capacity,
and also to address the environmental imperative.
1. Reducing the need to travel –
substitution
• Trip no longer made – replaced by non travel
activity or substituted through technology
2. Transport Policy Measures –
Modal Shift
• Promotion of walk and cycle
• Slowing down of urban traffic
• Demand management
• Investment in public transport
• Flexible use of streets
• No rebound effects
3. Land Use Policy Measures –
Distance Reduction
•
•
Build sustainable mobility into patterns of
urban form and layout
Increase densities and concentration – mixed
use developments, housing location
The New Oxford Cancer Centre
at the Churchill and Susan Roaf’s
Eco Home
4. Technological Innovation –
Efficiency Increase
• Best available technology –
lean burn and plug in
hybrids
• Alternative fuels –
renewable electricity and
Biofuels (?)
• Restrictions – clean parts of
the city
• Ecological driving and
slower speeds
• Increase load factors
Role for Transport
Transport = 25% CO2 and rising to 66% by 2050?
Virtuous Pathways
Policy Objective
Reductions in
CO2 emissions
and less carbon
Kyoto 2 Targets
Transport Contributing
Fully to the -80% 2050
Target
Environmental Benefits
Slower
Travel
Less motorised
travel
Fewer
Accidents
More Active
Transport
Individual and
Societal Benefits
Health Benefits
Less Obesity
Individual and
Societal Benefits
Less Pollution
Health Benefits
Individual and
Societal Benefits
Strategic Challenges
1. Climate change challenge – links to
current travel patterns in Oxfordshire.
2. Increases in mobility – impacts of
transport investments on travel and
location decisions on transport.
3. Balance between economic, social
and environmental elements of
sustainability.