Transcript The political economy of climate change

Low Carbon Society Initiative
Professor Andrew Sentance, WBS
23rd June 2009
https://go.warwick.ac.uk/lowcarbon
Introduction
Vision 2015 Strategy
1.To make Warwick an
undisputed world leader in
research and scholarship
1.5. To set up at least three new large
interdisciplinary research centres which will
sit alongside the already successful centres
in the University
Outline
• The challenge of the Low Carbon Society
• Key activities to date
• Next steps
Stabilising the global climate
450ppm CO2e
100
Global Emissions (GtCO2e)
90
80
500ppm CO2e (falling to
450ppm CO2e in 2150)
70
550ppm CO2e
60
Business as Usual
50
40
50GtCO2e
30
65GtCO2e
20
70GtCO2e
10
0
2000
2010
Source: Stern Review
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Global CO2 Emissions (GtC/yr)
CO2 Emissions targets in context
10
8
~ 8 GtC/yr
now
Stabilisation at 450 ppmv
requires a 60% cut in global
CO2 emissions by 2050
6
4
~ 3 GtC/yr
by 2050
..and continuous
reductions beyond
2050……
2
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2200
2300
Carbon emissions per head
CO2 per capita, 2005 values
25
20
15
10
2050 target
2-2.5 T
5
Source: OECD
In
di
a
Br
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il
Ch
in
a
Fr
an
ce
UK
Ko
re
a
Ja
pa
n
Au
st
ra
lia
Ca
na
da
Ru
ss
ia
G
er
m
an
y
US
0
Greenhouse gas emissions, by source
Global GHG emissions in 2000 = 42GT CO2 equivalent
3%
5%
25%
14%
18%
8%
Source: Stern Review (2006)
13%
Power
Transport
Industry
Buildings
Land use*
Agriculture*
Waste*
Other
14%
* Non-energy emissions
Three big challenges
• “Decarbonisation” of power sector and
transport
• Increasing energy efficiency of industry &
buildings
• Cutting non-energy emissions from
agriculture, changes in land use & waste
“It is not from the benevolence of
the butcher, the brewer, or the
baker, that we expect our dinner,
but from their regard to their own
interest.”
Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations, 1776
Building the “low carbon economy”
Economic
Instruments
Technology
Low Carbon
Economy
Political
Frameworks
Behavioural
& Structural
Change
Decarbonisation of power sector
• Conventional renewables
• Nuclear power
• Carbon capture and storage
• Bio-fuels and bio-mass
• Energy storage schemes
CO2 emissions by UK transport mode
Grams per passenger km
Current
2050 potential
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Car
Rail electric
Rail diesel
Bus
Air longhaul
Air shorthaul
Sources: Committee on Climate Change, 2008; CfIT (2007); and author’s estimates.
Note that 2050 figures are illustrative – based on 90% decarbonised electricity
Air domestic
Potential size of carbon markets
20000
Million tonnes CO 2 emissions, 2002
18000
16000
Total emissions from fossil fuels
Emissions from power and industrial sectors (estimated)
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
European Union United States of China, India,
(25)
America
Mexico, Brazil,
South Africa
(+5)
G7
EU25, Jap, Aus,
Can, USA
OECD
Top 20 Global
emitters
Extending EU ETS to power and industrial sectors in Top 20 countries
would create a market of US$90-350 bn
Activities (1)
Support development of “Research ideas”
across campus - workshops on:
Game theory in climate change mitigation
Global emissions trading
Energy trading
Role of social norms in building a low carbon
society
Adoption of low carbon vehicle technologies
Current trends in photovoltaic energy systems
Activities (2)
• Steering group to co-ordinate and develop
activities, including research proposals
• Linkages with other related centres and
initiatives (eg WISER, Warwick HRI)
• Energy and Low Carbon Seminar series
• Workshops with Intellect (IT industry)
• ESRC Seminar Series
• Conference: “Challenges in the Transition to
a Low Carbon Society” – 13/14 July 2009
Conference: “Challenges in the
Transition to a Low Carbon Society”
• Exploring the technological, economic, social and
political challenges of moving to a Low Carbon
Society
• Key sessions – vision, energy, transport, technology,
strategy/behaviour
• Closing panel with key regional business executives
and policy-makers
• 13-14th July 2009, Scarman Conference Centre
• 25 speakers and panellists from academia, business
and policy-making
• Places are still available- please register at:
https://go.warwick.ac.uk/lowcarbon/conference
Next steps
• Build new research partnerships across Warwick
research community
• Develop regional links e.g. AWM, local policy
makers, other Midlands Universities
• Establish a business “network”
• Agree research themes and other activities
• Identify key sources of funding
• Proposal to University in 2009H2 for carrying
forward this initiative
Coming soon - Warwick Footprint
• A new environmental initiative, open to all members
of the University community
• Website launching soon
– Make a pledge
– Submit your idea
– Find out more about environmental research at Warwick
• Provides an opportunity for staff and students to do
their bit to make Warwick a greener place to work
and study