Transcript Energy and Climate Policy

Climate Change Policies:
The Road to Copenhagen
Dr Robert K. Dixon
Energy and Climate Policy:
The Road to Copenhagen
Dr. Robert K. Dixon
September 2009
Trends in Total CO2 Emissions
from Fossil Fuel Combustion: 2000-2005
Change in Real GDP
Most Improved
Germany (3.2%)
-1.6%
United Kingdom (12.8%)
1.0%
Russia (33.0%)
2.0%
United States (12.6%)
2.0%
France (7.7%)
2.4%
Japan (5.2%)
2.5%
Canada (15.2%)
3.5%
European Union (10.8%)
3.6%
4.9%
Korea (24.7%)
6.6%
Italy (5.5%)
7.9%
Brazil (9.8%)
9.0%
Mexico (9.5)
10.5%
South Africa (11.8%)
11.0%
Australia (17.5%)
18.1%
India (37.0%)
25.9%
Indonesia (20.7%)
Least Improved
69.9%
China (58.1%)
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Data Source: International Energy Agency, CO₂ Emissions from Fuel Combustion, 2007.
Produced using energy balances and the default methodologies and emissions factors from the revised IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.
80.0%
Improvements in CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion
Real GDP Intensity: 2000-2005
CO₂ from Fuel Combustion / Real GDP (KG CO₂ per 2000 US$ at PPP)
Change in Real GDP
Most Improved
Russia (33.0%)
23.2%
Korea (24.7%)
15.6%
India (37.0%)
14.1%
United Kingdom (12.8%)
11.0%
10.7%
Canada (15.2%)
9.2%
United States (12.6%)
8.1%
European Union (10.8%)
6.0%
Germany (3.2%)
5.7%
Australia (17.5%)
4.4%
France (7.7%)
2.5%
Japan (5.2%)
1.6%
South Africa (11.8%)
0.2%
Brazil (9.8%)
-0.4%
Mexico (9.5)
-1.7%
Italy (5.5%)
-3.8%
Indonesia (20.7%)
Least Improved
China (58.1%)
-15.0%
-8.3%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Data Source: International Energy Agency, CO₂ Emissions from Fuel Combustion, 2007.
Produced using energy balances and the default methodologies and emissions factors from the revised IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.
30.0%
Important Transitions in Emitting Countries Over
the Coming Decades: CO2 Emissions1
60
Reference Emission Projections to 2050 and Percent of Global Total
OECD Countries
Non-OECD Countries
30
20
10
49%
53%
58%
62%
65%
67%
51%
47%
42%
38%
35%
33%
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Non-OECD
40
OECD
CO2 Emissions (Gt CO2/yr)
50
0
1
Includes fossil and other industrial CO2.
Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (Estimates based on MINICAM
model results and other data).
Global CO2 Emissions1—2000, 2050 Reference Case,
and 2050 at 50% of 2000
50
40
+97%
(24.9 Gt/yr)
25.7 Gt/yr
-75%
(-37.7 Gt/yr)
`
10
2000 Emissions
Global 2050
Reference
Emis s ions
12.8 Gt/yr
2050 Reference
Emissions
Global
Emis s ins
50% 2005
20
0
1
50.6 Gt/yr
30
Global 2000
Emis s ions
CO Emissions (Gt CO /yr)
2
Energy 2Emis s ions , Gt CO
2 /yr
60
2050 Global
Emissions at 50% of
2000 Emissions
Includes fossil and other industrial CO2.
Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (Estimates based on MINICAM
model results and other data).
Energy CO2 Emission1 Reductions Needed to Achieve a 50% Global Emissions Reduction
Below 2000 by 2050 Under Three Different Reduction Goals for OECD Countries
Annual Gigaton CO2 and Percent Reductions from 2050 Reference2
OECD Countries
CO2, Emissions (Gt CO2/yr)
2050 Projection
(50.6 Gt Total)
2000
OECD Emissions at
“0”
1
OECD Emissions at
20% 2000 Emissions
OECD Emissions at
50% 2000 Emissions
-62%
(-21.1 Gt)
2000
-70%
(-23.7 Gt)
-84%
(-14.1 Gt)
-100%
(-16.7 Gt)
2050
OECD
Reference
Emissions
(16.7 Gt)
Non-OECD Countries
2050
Non-OECD
Reference
Emissions
(33.9 Gt)
2050
OECD
Emissions
(0 Gt)
2050
Non-OECD
Emissions
(12.8 Gt)
2050
OECD
Emissions
(267 Gt)
2050
Non-OECD
Emissions
(10.2 Gt)
-61%
(-10.2 Gt)
-81%
(-27.6 Gt)
2050
OECD
Emissions
(6.5 Gt)
2050
Non-OECD
Emissions
(6.3 Gt)
Includes fossil and other industrial CO2.
Equals reduction from 2050 reference for that group (i.e., OECD or Non-OECD).
Source: Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (Estimates based on
MINICAM model results and other data).
2
How Big is One Gigaton of CO2?
Technology
Actions that Provide One Gigaton CO2/ Year of Mitigation or Offsets
Coal-Fired Power
Plants
Build 273 “zero-emission” 500 MW coal-fired power plants*
Geologic
Sequestration
Install 1,000 sequestration sites like Norway’s Sleipner project (1 MtCO2/year)
Nuclear
Efficiency
Equivalent to about 7% of estimated current global installed coal-fired generating
capacity of 2 million MW
Only 3 sequestration projects of this scale exist today
Build 136 new nuclear power plants of 1 GW each instead of new coal-fired power
plants without CCS
Equivalent to about one third of existing worldwide nuclear capacity of 375 GW
Deploy 273 million new cars at 40 miles per gallon (mpg) instead of 20 mpg - or at
17 km/L instead of 8.5 km/L
Wind Energy
Install about 270,000 1 MW wind turbines (operating at a capacity factor of 45%),
roughly 3 times the global total installed wind capacity at the end of 2007.
Solar
Photovoltaics
Install about 750 GW of solar PV, which is 125 times current global installed capacity
of 6 GW*
Biofuels
Using existing production technologies, convert a barren area about 2 times the size
of the UK (for a total of over 480,000 km2)
CO2 Storage in
New Forest
Convert a barren area greater than the size of Germany and France together (for a
total of over 900,000 km2)
Gigatons = 109 Metric tons (1000 Kilograms)
*Instead of coal-fired power plants
Source: Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan, September 2006.
Major Economies Process
 Reinforce and accelerate discussions under
the UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change and contribute to a global agreement
under the Convention by 2009.
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Long-term Global Goal
National Plans
Technology Development/Cooperation
Financing
Forests, Adaptation
Thank You
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