Transcript Early Action & Climate Change

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Beyond Kyoto
A Long-Term Target:
Framing the Climate Effort
Prepared for the Pew Center on Global
Climate Change by
Jonathan Pershing
(World Resources Institute; formerly International Energy
Agency)
Fernando Tudela
(El Colegio de México)
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Climate Change: a long-term challenge
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Impacts: huge time
lags (over a century)
Mitigation: long life
cycles
Political systems: illprepared to cope with
long-term problems
Societies heavily
discount
distant impacts:
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Time line
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Long-term targets
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Article 2 UNFCCC: stabilize concentrations to
avoid dangerous interference…+ qualifier..
UNFCCC + KP: emphasis on short-term action
Climate regime needs bolstering
Could negotiating a long-term target be
useful / essential to boost / guide action?
The case for long-term targets
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Defining a goal for climate efforts
Awareness of long-term consequences
Calibrating progress: Are we on track?
Enhancing economic certainty:
stable signals for technological change
Limiting future risks
Mobilizing society
Promoting global participation
Some Parties are already adopting non-binding
long-term targets:
EU, UK, Sweden
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The Climate Cycle
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Setting targets at different stages
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A target set at any stage has effects on all other
stages; target setting involves the whole cycle
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Entry point would frame the process
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Early : strongest policy control, short time lags
Later : higher legitimacy (specific risks avoided), but:
huge time lags + accumulated uncertainties
The paper addresses target setting at every
stage:
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Possible form of the target
Implications for other stages
Pros & cons
Negotiating hurdles
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The Climate Cycle: Activity Target
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EXAMPLE: Technology Options
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Renewables
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Hydrogen
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Capture and storage
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The Climate Cycle: Emissions Target
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Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
(Source: IEA WEO, 2002)
40,000
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million tonnes of CO2
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
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1970
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World
1980
OECD
1990
2000
Transition economies
2010
2020
2030
Developing countries
World emissions increase by 1.8 % per year to 38 billion
tonnes in 2030 – 70% above 2000 levels
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The Climate Cycle: Concentration Target
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Concentration of CO2 Equivalent (ppmv)
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Source: IPCC TAR
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The Climate Cycle: Temperature Target
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Temperature Change
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The Climate Cycle: Impacts Target
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EXAMPLE: Crop
Yield Change
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Percentage change in
average crop yields for the
climate change scenario.
Effects of CO2 are taken
into account. Crops
modeled are: wheat, maize
and rice.
Source: IPCC TAR
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The Climate Cycle: Backcasting
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CO2, temperature, impacts, emissions, and cost
Eventual
CO2
Stabilizati
on level†
Mean
surface
temperature
change (at
equilibrium)**
Risks by
2100
450 ppm
1.5 – 3.9°C
Lower
630- 650
9 GtC by
2020
1- 4.1%
550 ppm
2.0 – 5.0°C
Medium
870- 990
11 GtC no
later than
2030
0.1- 1.7%
650 ppm
2.4 – 6.1°C
Medium-high
1030-1190
750 ppm
2.8 – 7.0°C
High
1200- 1300
1000 ppm
3.5 – 8.7°C
Higher
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Cumulative
Carbon
Emissions
1990-2100
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(GtC)
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Possible
pathway
(Global
emissions
peaking
at…GtC/
year, by
year…)
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13 GtC by
2070
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Cost:
Global
average
GDP
reduction
in year
2050
0- 1.5%
0- 1.0%
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Setting a long-term target: the obstacles
 Technical difficulties: uncertainties
 Political obstacles:
– Global burden defined
– defining “acceptable risk”
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burden sharing
compensations
– Equity issues become central
– Dilemma: negotiation´s success vs stringency
of outcome
– Limited “negotiating energy”; morale hurt by
failure
Conclusions
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Negotiating a long-term target: liabilities
outweigh potential benefits
If undertaken at all, the negotiation should focus
on the earliest stages of the cycle: activities,
emissions [input rather than output]
Alternatives to a long-term target:
 Hedging: a medium-term target that would leave some
long-term concentration target open
 Targets with limited constituency (but including
leading players)
 Notional target, informal adoption
 Directional goad based on strengthened science
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A Hedging Strategy
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Source: IPCC
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Conclusions II
More important than any tool, including targetsetting, is willingness to act
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The value of developing a long-term target will
depend on whether or not the negotiating
process fosters political will
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For More Information
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www.pewclimate.org